{"id":613202,"date":"2021-02-21T15:00:24","date_gmt":"2021-02-21T14:00:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/?p=613202"},"modified":"2024-03-26T15:19:36","modified_gmt":"2024-03-26T14:19:36","slug":"huong-dan-ve-backtesting-forex-dat-duoc-su-tu-tin-trong-chien-luoc-giao-dich-cua-ban","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/vi\/huong-dan-ve-backtesting-forex-dat-duoc-su-tu-tin-trong-chien-luoc-giao-dich-cua-ban\/","title":{"rendered":"H\u01b0\u1edbng d\u1eabn v\u1ec1 Backtesting Forex &#8211; \u0110\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ef1 t\u1ef1 tin trong chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c giao d\u1ecbch c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>C\u00f3 v\u00f4 s\u1ed1 c\u00e1ch ki\u1ebfm ti\u1ec1n trong Forex. Nh\u01b0ng l\u00e0m th\u1ebf n\u00e0o b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn r\u1eb1ng chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n s\u1ebd hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 v\u1ec1 l\u00e2u d\u00e0i? S\u1ef1 th\u1eadt l\u00e0 b\u1ea1n kh\u00f4ng bao gi\u1edd c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 bi\u1ebft ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn 100% v\u00ec th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u00ed nh\u01b0 l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng c\u01a1 th\u1ec3 s\u1ed1ng lu\u00f4n thay \u0111\u1ed5i. Tin t\u1ed1t l\u00e0nh l\u00e0 b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ebfn r\u1ea5t g\u1ea7n kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng sinh l\u1ee3i nh\u1edd backtesting. Trong b\u00e0i vi\u1ebft n\u00e0y, ch\u00fang t\u00f4i s\u1ebd xem x\u00e9t nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec1u c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n v\u1ec1 backtesting v\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 cho b\u1ea1n c\u00e1ch c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng t\u1ed1i \u0111a n\u00f3 \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ef1 t\u1ef1 tin trong giao d\u1ecbch c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh.<\/em><\/p>\n<h2>H\u01b0\u1edbng d\u1eabn v\u1ec1 Backtesting Forex &#8211; \u0110\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ef1 t\u1ef1 tin trong chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c giao d\u1ecbch c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n<\/h2>\n<p>C\u00f3 m\u1ed9t \u0111i\u1ec1u k\u1ebft c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 n\u1ed1i t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch chuy\u00ean nghi\u1ec7p v\u1edbi nhau &#8211; \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 h\u1ecd tin t\u01b0\u1edfng 100% v\u00e0o chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c giao d\u1ecbch c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh.<\/p>\n<p>N\u1ebfu b\u1ea1n mu\u1ed1n tham gia c\u00e2u l\u1ea1c b\u1ed9 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch \u01b0u t\u00fa n\u00e0y, b\u1ea1n c\u1ea7n bi\u1ebft mong \u0111\u1ee3i nh\u1eefng g\u00ec t\u1eeb chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c giao d\u1ecbch c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh.<\/p>\n<p>\u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t nhi\u1ec7m v\u1ee5 kh\u00e1 ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p v\u00ec kh\u00f4ng ai trong ch\u00fang ta c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 nh\u00ecn th\u1ea5y t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai, nh\u01b0ng nh\u1edd c\u00e1c d\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ecbch s\u1eed, ch\u00fang ta c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1ec5 d\u00e0ng bi\u1ebft \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u00ecnh s\u1ebd th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o trong qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9.<\/p>\n<p>N\u1ebfu ch\u00fang ta c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n ra r\u1eb1ng chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c giao d\u1ecbch c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh \u0111\u00e3 ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1ed1t trong v\u00e0i n\u0103m qua th\u00ec c\u00f3 r\u1ea5t \u00edt kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng n\u00f3 s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai.<\/p>\n<p><strong>V\u1eady th\u00ec backtesting l\u00e0 g\u00ec?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Trong khi th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n backtesting, ch\u00fang t\u00f4i \u0111\u01b0a chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh v\u00e0o th\u1eed nghi\u1ec7m tr\u00ean c\u00e1c d\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ecbch s\u1eed.<\/p>\n<p>Vi\u1ec7c n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n trong v\u00e0i th\u00e1ng qua nh\u01b0ng b\u1ea1n c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 quay l\u1ea1i 10 ho\u1eb7c 20 n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc.<\/p>\n<p>T\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o s\u1ef1 mong mu\u1ed1n c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n v\u00e0 m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 b\u1ea1n mu\u1ed1n backtesting c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o.<\/p>\n<p>M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 vi\u1ec7c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n backtesting c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1ed1n r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u th\u1eddi gian nh\u01b0ng n\u00f3 l\u1ea1i t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i d\u1ec5 d\u00e0ng.<\/p>\n<p>T\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 nh\u1eefng g\u00ec b\u1ea1n c\u1ea7n l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng giao d\u1ecbch c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ee7 d\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ecbch s\u1eed v\u00e0 m\u1ed9t b\u1ea3ng excel \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n n\u01a1i b\u1ea1n s\u1ebd ghi l\u1ea1i t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c giao d\u1ecbch.<\/p>\n<h2>C\u00e1c lo\u1ea1i backtesting<\/h2>\n<p>C\u00f3 hai lo\u1ea1i backtesting, \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 th\u1ee7 c\u00f4ng v\u00e0 t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9ng.<\/p>\n<p>Backtesting <strong>th\u1ee7 c\u00f4ng<\/strong> di\u1ec5n ra su\u00f4n s\u1ebb kh\u00f4ng sai l\u1ec7ch.<\/p>\n<p>B\u1ea1n ch\u1ec9 c\u1ea7n m\u1edf n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng v\u00e0 xem x\u00e9t t\u1eebng ng\u00e0y c\u00e1c thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp giao d\u1ecbch h\u1ee3p l\u1ec7 m\u00e0 b\u1ea1n s\u1ebd giao d\u1ecbch trong th\u1eddi gian th\u1ef1c.<\/p>\n<p>Sau m\u1ed7i giao d\u1ecbch, b\u1ea1n ghi ch\u00e9p n\u00f3 v\u00e0o b\u1ea3ng t\u00ednh c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh v\u00e0 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c.<\/p>\n<p>\u0110\u00e2y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh kh\u00e1 d\u00e0i v\u00e0 quan tr\u1ecdng nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 b\u1ea1n c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i th\u00e0nh th\u1eadt 100% v\u1edbi ch\u00ednh m\u00ecnh.<\/p>\n<p>M\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng sai l\u1ea7m m\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch d\u1ec5 m\u1eafc ph\u1ea3i khi ti\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh backtesting l\u00e0 h\u1ecd c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c &#8220;\u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cong ho\u00e0n h\u1ea3o &#8211; curve fitting&#8221; \u0111\u1ec3 mang l\u1ea1i k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng t\u00edch c\u1ef1c.<\/p>\n<p>M\u1ed9t v\u00ed d\u1ee5 v\u1ec1 \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 khi thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp giao d\u1ecbch xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n v\u00e0o gi\u1eefa \u0111\u00eam v\u00e0 b\u1ea1n kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n n\u00f3 ho\u1eb7c l\u1ec7nh c\u1eaft l\u1ed7 c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n s\u1ebd b\u1ecb k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t b\u1edfi ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch gi\u00e1 v\u00e0 b\u1ea1n ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n b\u1ecf qua th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf n\u00e0y v\u00e0 v\u1eabn \u0111\u0103ng k\u00fd giao d\u1ecbch. .<\/p>\n<p>B\u1ea1n ph\u1ea3i nh\u1eadn ra r\u1eb1ng n\u1ebfu l\u00e0m \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y, b\u1ea1n ch\u1ec9 \u0111ang l\u00e0m t\u1ed5n th\u01b0\u01a1ng ch\u00ednh m\u00ecnh v\u00ec b\u1ea1n s\u1ebd b\u1ecb thua l\u1ed7 ti\u1ec1n trong c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp.<\/p>\n<p>Lo\u1ea1i backtesting th\u1ee9 hai l\u00e0 ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n<strong> t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9ng<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>\u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi lo\u1ea1i backtesting n\u00e0y, b\u1ea1n th\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ea7n c\u00f3 ki\u1ebfn th\u1ee9c v\u1ec1 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 ng\u00f4n ng\u1eef l\u1eadp tr\u00ecnh.<\/p>\n<p>Ch\u00fang ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu l\u00e0 Python, MQL ho\u1eb7c C++<\/p>\n<p>\u01afu \u0111i\u1ec3m l\u1edbn c\u1ee7a backtesting t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u00e0 n\u00f3 lo\u1ea1i b\u1ecf ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n m\u1ecdi c\u1ea3m x\u00fac v\u00e0 th\u1eddi gian b\u1ea1n c\u1ea7n d\u00e0nh cho nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u d\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ecbch s\u1eed h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y.<\/p>\n<p>Nh\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 l\u00e0 b\u1ea1n c\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 kh\u00e1 nhi\u1ec1u th\u1eddi gian cho vi\u1ec7c h\u1ecdc ng\u00f4n ng\u1eef l\u1eadp tr\u00ecnh.<\/p>\n<h2>C\u00e1c th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea backtesting quan tr\u1ecdng<\/h2>\n<p>Khi b\u1ea1n ch\u1ea1y backtesting, \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea quan tr\u1ecdng nh\u1ea5t b\u1ea1n n\u00ean theo d\u00f5i.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Ng\u00e0y v\u00e0 gi\u1edd nh\u1eadp l\u1ec7nh<\/li>\n<li>Gi\u00e1 v\u00e0o l\u1ec7nh v\u00e0 tho\u00e1t l\u1ec7nh<\/li>\n<li>Quy m\u00f4 c\u1ee7a l\u1ec7nh giao d\u1ecbch v\u00e0 % r\u1ee7i ro tr\u00ean t\u00e0i kho\u1ea3n giao d\u1ecbch c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n<\/li>\n<li>MAE \u2013 Thua l\u1ed7 t\u1ea1m th\u1eddi cao nh\u1ea5t<\/li>\n<li>MFE \u2013 L\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn t\u1ea1m th\u1eddi cao nh\u1ea5t<\/li>\n<li>R trung b\u00ecnh: T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 R<\/li>\n<li>Gi\u00e1 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n<\/li>\n<li>M\u1ee9c s\u1ee5t gi\u1ea3m v\u1ed1n t\u1ed1i \u0111a<\/li>\n<li>T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 long\/short<\/li>\n<li>T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng tr\u00ean c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 kh\u00e1c nhau<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>N\u1ebfu c\u00f3 th\u1ec3, b\u1ea1n c\u0169ng n\u00ean th\u00eam h\u00ecnh ch\u1ee5p v\u00e0o t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c giao d\u1ecbch trong backtesting c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch n\u00e0y, b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1ec5 d\u00e0ng quay tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i sau n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n<h2>N\u00ean th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n backtesting v\u1edbi bao nhi\u00eau giao d\u1ecbch?<\/h2>\n<p>M\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u1eed nghi\u1ec7m m\u01b0\u1eddi giao d\u1ecbch \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean v\u00e0 n\u1ebfu h\u1ecd th\u1ea5y chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3, h\u1ecd quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh th\u1ebf l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ee7 v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng th\u1eed nghi\u1ec7m th\u00eam.<\/p>\n<p>\u0110\u00e2y ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p t\u1ed1t v\u00ec b\u1ea1n kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t m\u1eabu d\u1eef li\u1ec7u to l\u1edbn.<\/p>\n<p>\u0110\u1ec3 th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn r\u1eb1ng h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng giao d\u1ecbch c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u00e0 m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd, b\u1ea1n c\u1ea7n m\u1ed9t m\u1eabu c\u1ee1 \u00edt nh\u1ea5t 100-200 giao d\u1ecbch.<\/p>\n<p>B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch n\u00e0y, b\u1ea1n s\u1ebd tr\u1edf n\u00ean t\u1ef1 tin h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u trong giao d\u1ecbch c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh.<\/p>\n<p>M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 giao d\u1ecbch tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1ef1c lu\u00f4n kh\u00e1c v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c th\u1eed nghi\u1ec7m chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c tr\u00ean b\u1ea3n demo, b\u1ea1n s\u1ebd t\u1ef1 tin h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u khi bi\u1ebft r\u1eb1ng chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng t\u00edch c\u1ef1c v\u1ec1 l\u00e2u d\u00e0i.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>C\u00f3 v\u00f4 s\u1ed1 c\u00e1ch ki\u1ebfm ti\u1ec1n trong Forex. Nh\u01b0ng l\u00e0m th\u1ebf n\u00e0o b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn r\u1eb1ng chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n s\u1ebd hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 v\u1ec1 l\u00e2u d\u00e0i? S\u1ef1 th\u1eadt l\u00e0 b\u1ea1n kh\u00f4ng bao gi\u1edd c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 bi\u1ebft ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn 100% v\u00ec th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u00ed nh\u01b0 l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng c\u01a1 th\u1ec3 s\u1ed1ng lu\u00f4n thay \u0111\u1ed5i. 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