{"id":672284,"date":"2025-12-01T15:10:45","date_gmt":"2025-12-01T14:10:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/?p=672284"},"modified":"2025-12-01T15:36:53","modified_gmt":"2025-12-01T14:36:53","slug":"trading-week-ahead-will-core-pce-and-jolts-data-tilt-the-feds-path","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/en\/trading-week-ahead-will-core-pce-and-jolts-data-tilt-the-feds-path\/","title":{"rendered":"Trading Week Ahead: Will Core PCE and JOLTS Data Tilt the Fed\u2019s Path?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Key US data releases this week, including inflation, factory activity and labour demand, could reshape market expectations around the Fed\u2019s next move.<\/em>
\nHere’s what traders need to know.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

\ud83d\udc49 Core PCE Price Index<\/strong>
\nThe Fed\u2019s go-to inflation metric will take centre stage at the end of the week. With inflation pressures still sticky, any upside surprise could delay the policy pivot, lifting the US dollar and Treasury yields. A softer-than-expected figure would support dovish sentiment and boost risk assets like tech and gold.<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udc49 ISM Manufacturing PMI & Prices<\/strong>
\nThe November PMI is projected to tick up from 48.7 to 49.0, still shy of the expansion threshold, while prices are expected to rise from 58.0 to 59.5. A stronger-than-expected report may signal lingering cost pressures, reinforcing rate-hike caution and fuelling USD strength. Weak data, on the other hand, could weigh on yields and favour growth stocks.<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udc49 JOLTS Job Openings<\/strong>
\nThe last job openings stood at 7.227 million. Any significant drop in this figure could highlight softening labour demand, increasing market bets on earlier Fed rate cuts in 2026. A stable or rising number may reinforce the higher-for-longer narrative, strengthening the greenback.<\/p>\n

\n \n \n \n \n
Date<\/th>\n Time<\/th>\n Instrument<\/th>\n Event<\/th>\n <\/tr>\n <\/thead>\n
Monday, Dec. 1<\/td>4:00 PM<\/span><\/td>\"USD\"<\/span>USD<\/span><\/td>ISM Manufacturing PMI, Prices<\/span><\/td><\/tr>
Tuesday, Dec. 2<\/td>2:00 AM<\/span><\/td>\"USD\"<\/span>USD<\/span><\/td>Fed Chair Powell Speaks<\/span><\/td><\/tr>
11:00 AM<\/span><\/td>\"EUR\"<\/span>EUR<\/span><\/td>CPI<\/span><\/td><\/tr>
4:00 PM<\/span><\/td>\"USD\"<\/span>USD<\/span><\/td>JOLTS Job Openings<\/span><\/td><\/tr>
Wednesday, Dec. 3<\/td>2:15 PM<\/span><\/td>\"USD\"<\/span>USD<\/span><\/td>ADP Non-Farm Employment Change<\/span><\/td><\/tr>
4:00 PM<\/span><\/td>\"USD\"<\/span>USD<\/span><\/td>ISM Services PMI<\/span><\/td><\/tr>
Friday, Dec. 5<\/td>11:00 AM<\/span><\/td>\"EUR\"<\/span>EUR<\/span><\/td>GDP<\/span><\/td><\/tr>
2:30 PM<\/span><\/td>\"CAD\"<\/span>CAD<\/span><\/td>Employment Change<\/span><\/td><\/tr>
4:00 PM<\/span><\/td>\"USD\"<\/span>USD<\/span><\/td>Core PCE Price Index<\/span><\/td><\/tr>
\"USD\"<\/span>USD<\/span><\/td>Prelim UoM Consumer, Inflation Expectations<\/span><\/td><\/tr> <\/tbody>\n <\/table>\n<\/div><\/p>\n

*All times in the table are in GMT+1<\/em><\/p>\n

Technical Analysis with FVG Strategy<\/h2>\n

This trading approach leverages the\u00a020-<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a050-period\u00a0Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs)<\/a><\/strong>\u00a0to assess the prevailing market trend, while the\u00a0Fair Value Gap (FVG)<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0is used to pinpoint zones of price inefficiency. These gaps, formed during sharp price movements, often highlight optimal entry or exit levels. The strategy is suitable for instruments like\u00a0EURUSD<\/strong>,\u00a0GBPJPY<\/strong>,\u00a0US30<\/strong>, and\u00a0XAUUSD\u00a0<\/strong>and provides insights into both last week\u2019s market opportunities and the current one.<\/p>\n

Opportunities to Watch This Week<\/h2>\n

EURUSD<\/span><\/h3>\n

Market Context:<\/strong> Following a successful test of support and a confirmed shift in structure, EURUSD continues to trend higher. The pair is currently trading above the 20 and 50 EMAs, aiming for the previous swing high.<\/p>\n

Bullish Scenario (Preferred):<\/strong> Sustained bullish momentum with a move toward the swing high remains the favoured outlook.<\/p>\n

Bearish Scenario (Alternative):<\/strong> A loss of momentum could lead to a pullback and potential retest of the recent support zone.<\/p>\n

FVG Setup:<\/strong> No fair value gap formed this week.<\/p>\n

\"ftmo<\/a><\/p>\n

\n

GBPJPY<\/span><\/h3>\n

Market Context:<\/strong> After reaching a multi-month high, GBPJPY is showing early signs of weakening. Price is now testing the first support level, which needs to hold for the uptrend to remain intact.<\/p>\n

Bullish Scenario (Preferred):<\/strong> A bounce from current support would support continued bullish momentum.<\/p>\n

Bearish Scenario (Alternative):<\/strong> A close below support could lead to a deeper correction toward the 20 and 50 EMAs.<\/p>\n

FVG Setup:<\/strong> No FVG was formed this week.<\/p>\n

\"ftmo<\/a><\/p>\n

\n

XAUUSD<\/span><\/h3>\n

Market Context:<\/strong> Gold tapped into the swing high at resistance today, where a reaction from sellers is likely.<\/p>\n

Bearish Scenario (Preferred): <\/strong>A short setup becomes valid if a short FVG forms and confirms rejection from the resistance zone.<\/p>\n

Bullish Scenario (Alternative): <\/strong>Failure to react at resistance would invalidate the zone and open the path toward all-time highs.<\/p>\n

FVG Setup: <\/strong>No FVG has formed this week yet.<\/p>\n

\"ftmo<\/a><\/p>\n

\n

US30<\/span><\/h3>\n

Market Context: <\/strong>US30 has gained strong bullish momentum and is approaching a key resistance level.<\/p>\n

Bullish Scenario (Preferred): <\/strong>A pullback into the newly formed long FVG followed by a continuation toward resistance remains the main setup.<\/p>\n

Bearish Scenario (Alternative): <\/strong>A close below support would shift bias and open the door for a move toward the next lower support area.<\/p>\n

FVG Setup: <\/strong>A long FVG formed this week and remains valid, offering a 2:1 risk-to-reward potential.<\/p>\n

\"ftmo<\/a><\/p>\n

\n

All information provided on this site is intended solely for educational purposes related to trading on financial markets and does not serve in any way as a specific investment recommendation, business recommendation, investment opportunity analysis, or similar general recommendation regarding the trading of investment instruments. FTMO only provides services of simulated trading and educational tools for traders.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Key US data releases this week, including inflation, factory activity and labour demand, could reshape market expectations around the Fed\u2019s next move. Here’s what traders need to know. \ud83d\udc49 Core PCE Price Index The Fed\u2019s go-to inflation metric will take centre stage at the end of the week. With inflation pressures still sticky, any upside […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":91,"featured_media":672375,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[89210],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-672284","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-trading-week-ahead"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nTrading Week Ahead: Will Core PCE and JOLTS Data Tilt the Fed\u2019s Path? | FTMO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Key US data including Core PCE, ISM PMI, and JOLTS may shift Fed rate expectations this week. 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