{"id":661858,"date":"2025-06-30T13:20:30","date_gmt":"2025-06-30T11:20:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/?p=661858"},"modified":"2025-06-30T13:56:58","modified_gmt":"2025-06-30T11:56:58","slug":"trading-week-ahead-powells-speech-nfp-could-spark-big-moves","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/en\/trading-week-ahead-powells-speech-nfp-could-spark-big-moves\/","title":{"rendered":"Trading Week Ahead: Powell\u2019s Speech & NFP Could Spark Big Moves"},"content":{"rendered":"

The markets are setting up for a busy ride with Powell<\/strong> back at the mic. NFP and fresh ISM data are on deck. Traders are bracing for a week full of setups and surprises.\u00a0Whether you’re trading the dollar, yields, or equities, this week\u2019s data could be the catalyst that sets the tone for summer. Big moves are in play, and the only question is, are you ready to catch the momentum?\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Here\u2019s what traders should watch and how it might play out in the price action:<\/p>\n

\u2022 Fed Chair Powell Speaks<\/strong>
\nJerome Powell\u2019s midweek appearance will be scrutinised for clues on the Fed\u2019s monetary stance. Any tilt toward a dovish pivot could weaken the dollar and boost risk assets, while reaffirmed hawkishness may lift yields and support the greenback.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Non-Farm Payrolls<\/strong>
\nJuly\u2019s NFP release (Thursday) is the key macro catalyst, with expectations set for a slowdown in job creation to 120,000 from 139,000 in the prior month. A softer print could ignite dovish Fed speculation and weigh on the USD, while a stronger-than-expected figure may reinforce higher-for-longer rate bets and support dollar strength.<\/p>\n

\u2022 ISM Manufacturing & Services PMI<\/strong>
\nMarkets will closely track Tuesday’s Manufacturing PMI, expected to edge up slightly to 48.8 from 48.5, still below the 50 threshold that separates contraction from expansion. Meanwhile, Thursday\u2019s Services PMI is forecast to rise to 50.8 from 49.9, signalling a possible return to expansion. Upside surprises could lift risk sentiment and dampen Fed cut expectations.<\/p>\n

\n \n \n \n \n
Date<\/th>\n Time<\/th>\n Instrument<\/th>\n Event<\/th>\n <\/tr>\n <\/thead>\n
Monday, Jun. 30<\/td>8:00 AM<\/span><\/td>\"GBP\"<\/span>GBP<\/span><\/td>GDP<\/span><\/td><\/tr>
2:00 PM<\/span><\/td>\"EUR\"<\/span>EUR<\/span><\/td>German CPI<\/span><\/td><\/tr>
Tuesday, Jul. 1<\/td>11:00 AM<\/span><\/td>\"EUR\"<\/span>EUR<\/span><\/td>CPI<\/span><\/td><\/tr>
3:30 PM<\/span><\/td>\"USD\"<\/span>USD<\/span><\/td>Fed Chair Powell Speaks<\/span><\/td><\/tr>
4:00 PM<\/span><\/td>\"USD\"<\/span>USD<\/span><\/td>ISM Manufacturing PMI<\/span><\/td><\/tr>
\"USD\"<\/span>USD<\/span><\/td>JOLTS Job Openings<\/span><\/td><\/tr>
Wednesday, Jul. 2<\/td>2:15 PM<\/span><\/td>\"USD\"<\/span>USD<\/span><\/td>ADP Non-Farm Employment Change<\/span><\/td><\/tr>
Thursday, Jul. 3<\/td>8:30 AM<\/span><\/td>\"CHF\"<\/span>CHF<\/span><\/td>CPI<\/span><\/td><\/tr>
2:30 PM<\/span><\/td>\"USD\"<\/span>USD<\/span><\/td>Average Hourly Earnings<\/span><\/td><\/tr>
\"USD\"<\/span>USD<\/span><\/td>Nonfarm Payrolls<\/span><\/td><\/tr>
\"USD\"<\/span>USD<\/span><\/td>Unemployment Rate<\/span><\/td><\/tr>
4:00 PM<\/span><\/td>\"USD\"<\/span>USD<\/span><\/td>ISM Services PMI<\/span><\/td><\/tr> <\/tbody>\n <\/table>\n<\/div><\/p>\n

*All times in the table are in GMT+2<\/em><\/p>\n

Technical Analysis with FVG Strategy<\/h2>\n

This trading approach leverages the 20<\/strong> and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs)<\/a><\/strong> to assess the prevailing market trend, while the Fair Value Gap (FVG)<\/a><\/strong> is used to pinpoint zones of price inefficiency. These gaps, formed during sharp price movements, often highlight optimal entry or exit levels. The strategy is suitable for instruments like EURUSD<\/strong>, GBPJPY<\/strong>, US30<\/strong>, and XAUUSD<\/strong> and provides insights into both last week\u2019s market opportunities and the current one.<\/p>\n

Last Week\u2019s Opportunities<\/h2>\n

XAUUSD<\/span><\/h3>\n

Market Context: <\/strong>Gold has broken below its previous bullish structure and is now testing the EMA50. The momentum has shifted to the downside in the short term.<\/p>\n

Bearish Scenario (Preferred): <\/strong>A continued move lower is expected, targeting the sweep of recent swing lows.<\/p>\n

Bullish Scenario (Alternative):<\/strong> If price holds above the EMA50, a short-term bounce into resistance may follow, but the overall bias remains cautious.<\/p>\n

Setup:<\/strong> Last week\u2019s bearish FVG reached its 2:1 RRR target. No new setups formed this week.<\/p>\n

\"week<\/a><\/p>\n

\n

GBPJPY<\/span><\/h3>\n

Market Context:<\/strong> GBPJPY remains in a strong uptrend, trading well above the EMA20 and EMA50. The market is pushing toward prior swing highs where liquidity is likely resting.<\/p>\n

Bullish Scenario (Preferred):<\/strong> A move higher into that zone is expected, with the potential for continuation if resistance breaks.<\/p>\n

Bearish Scenario (Alternative): <\/strong>Watch for a dip into support. If bulls step in, expect a bounce. If not, the uptrend could stall.<\/p>\n

Setup:<\/strong> Last week\u2019s FVG setup was invalidated after no entry signal formed within three candles. No active setup at the moment.<\/p>\n

\"week<\/a><\/p>\n

\n

Opportunities to Watch This Week<\/h2>\n

EURUSD<\/span><\/h3>\n

Market Context: <\/strong>The euro is holding strong above the yearly high, showing clear bullish momentum. Several Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) have formed during the recent rally, confirming aggressive buying interest.<\/p>\n

Bullish Scenario (Preferred):<\/strong> As long as the price stays above the latest FVG, further upside is expected with a target at 2:1 RRR.<\/p>\n

Bearish Scenario (Alternative):<\/strong> A sharp pullback could send the price lower into previous FVG zones, where demand may step in again.<\/p>\n

Setup:<\/strong> This week\u2019s bullish FVG remains active and aligns with the current trend, offering a clean opportunity with a potential 2:1 RRR target.<\/p>\n

\"week<\/a><\/p>\n

\n

US30<\/span><\/h3>\n

Market Context:<\/strong> US30 is in a strong uptrend, supported by bullish structure and a recent FVG formation. Price is approaching a key resistance zone.<\/p>\n

Bullish Scenario (Preferred):<\/strong> Continued upside into the resistance zone is expected. A breakout could lead to further gains.<\/p>\n

Bearish Scenario (Alternative): <\/strong>A pullback to support may offer a new buying opportunity if buyers step in and defend the level.<\/p>\n

Setup:<\/strong> A new bullish FVG formed this week, offering a valid long setup with a target at 2:1 RRR or the resistance zone.<\/p>\n

\"week<\/a><\/p>\n

\n
\n

All information provided on this site is intended solely for educational purposes related to trading on financial markets and does not serve in any way as a specific investment recommendation, business recommendation, investment opportunity analysis or similar general recommendation regarding the trading of investment instruments. FTMO only provides services of simulated trading and educational tools for traders. The information on this site is not directed at residents in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local laws or regulations. FTMO companies do not act as a broker and do not accept any deposits. The offered technical solution for the FTMO platforms and data feed is powered by liquidity providers.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The markets are setting up for a busy ride with Powell back at the mic. NFP and fresh ISM data are on deck. Traders are bracing for a week full of setups and surprises.\u00a0Whether you’re trading the dollar, yields, or equities, this week\u2019s data could be the catalyst that sets the tone for summer. Big […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":91,"featured_media":661902,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[89210],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-661858","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-trading-week-ahead"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nTrading Week Ahead: Powell\u2019s Speech & NFP Could Spark Big Moves | FTMO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Powell, NFP & ISM data set the stage for big moves. 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