{"id":659085,"date":"2025-05-12T13:04:56","date_gmt":"2025-05-12T11:04:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/?p=659085"},"modified":"2025-05-12T14:30:43","modified_gmt":"2025-05-12T12:30:43","slug":"trading-week-ahead-week-20","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/en\/trading-week-ahead-week-20\/","title":{"rendered":"Trading Week Ahead: CPI, Retail Sales & Powell in Focus"},"content":{"rendered":"

Markets brace for a volatile week with CPI<\/strong> on Tuesday, retail sales<\/strong> and PPI<\/strong> Thursday, followed by Powell\u2019s speech<\/strong>. A hotter CPI or hawkish Powell could slam the brakes on rate cut hopes, while soft data may ignite a risk-on rally. Are you ready for this week?<\/p>\n

\u2022 US CPI<\/strong>
\nInflation comes back into focus on Tuesday with April\u2019s CPI report. After a surprise decline of -0.1% last month, markets now anticipate a rebound to +0.3%. A stronger reading would likely reinforce the Fed\u2019s cautious stance, delay expectations for rate cuts, and put upward pressure on the dollar and yields. On the other hand, a weaker-than-expected result could support the dovish narrative and spark risk-on flows across markets.<\/p>\n

\u2022 US Retail Sales & PPI<\/strong>
\nThursday brings a key data combo that could stir market volatility. Retail sales are expected to flatline at 0.0%, down sharply from the previous 1.4%, raising concerns about a slowdown in consumer spending. At the same time, PPI is forecast to rise to +0.2% from -0.4%, suggesting a potential uptick in producer-side inflation. This mix of soft demand and rising costs could complicate the Fed\u2019s outlook. If confirmed, markets may reassess the timing and pace of future rate cuts, impacting both USD and risk assets.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Fed Chair Powell Speaks<\/strong>
\nJust minutes after Thursday\u2019s releases, Jerome Powell takes the stage. If he highlights easing inflation or softening economic data, markets may lean further into rate cut expectations. A more hawkish tone could support the dollar and trigger risk-off moves across asset classes.<\/p>\n

\n \n \n \n \n
Date<\/th>\n Time<\/th>\n Instrument<\/th>\n Event<\/th>\n <\/tr>\n <\/thead>\n
Tuesday, May. 13<\/td>8:00 AM<\/span><\/td>\"GBP\"<\/span>GBP<\/span><\/td>Claimant Count Change<\/span><\/td><\/tr>
11:00 AM<\/span><\/td>\"EUR\"<\/span>EUR<\/span><\/td>ZEW Economic Sentiment<\/span><\/td><\/tr>
2:30 PM<\/span><\/td>\"USD\"<\/span>USD<\/span><\/td>CPI<\/span><\/td><\/tr>
Wednesday, May. 14<\/td>3:30 AM<\/span><\/td>\"AUD\"<\/span>AUD<\/span><\/td>Wage Price Index<\/span><\/td><\/tr>
8:00 AM<\/span><\/td>\"EUR\"<\/span>EUR<\/span><\/td>German CPI<\/span><\/td><\/tr>
Thursday, May. 15<\/td>3:30 AM<\/span><\/td>\"AUD\"<\/span>AUD<\/span><\/td>Employment Change<\/span><\/td><\/tr>
8:00 AM<\/span><\/td>\"GBP\"<\/span>GBP<\/span><\/td>GDP<\/span><\/td><\/tr>
11:00 AM<\/span><\/td>\"EUR\"<\/span>EUR<\/span><\/td>GDP<\/span><\/td><\/tr>
2:30 PM<\/span><\/td>\"USD\"<\/span>USD<\/span><\/td>PPI, Retail Sales, Unemployment Claims<\/span><\/td><\/tr>
2:40 PM<\/span><\/td>\"USD\"<\/span>USD<\/span><\/td>Fed Chair Powell Speaks<\/span><\/td><\/tr>
Friday, May. 16<\/td>1:50 AM<\/span><\/td>\"JPY\"<\/span>JPY<\/span><\/td>GDP<\/span><\/td><\/tr>
4:00 PM<\/span><\/td>\"USD\"<\/span>USD<\/span><\/td>Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, Inflation Expectations<\/span><\/td><\/tr> <\/tbody>\n <\/table>\n<\/div>\n

Technical Analysis with FVG Strategy<\/h2>\n

This technical method combines the 20 and 50-period EMAs<\/a> to identify market direction, paired with the Fair Value Gap (FVG)<\/a> concept \u2013 price imbalances caused by strong market momentum that highlight potential entry and exit zones. The strategy is applicable to instruments like EURUSD<\/strong>, GBPJPY<\/strong>, US30<\/strong>, and XAUUSD<\/strong>, offering a perspective on trading opportunities from both the previous and current weeks.<\/p>\n

Last Week\u2019s Opportunities<\/h2>\n

EURUSD\u00a0<\/span><\/h3>\n

Market Context:<\/strong> The euro remains above the 50 EMA, indicating a swing bullish structure, but trades below the 20 EMA, reflecting short-term weakness. Last week\u2019s short FVG setup hit its 2:1 RRR target.<\/p>\n

Bearish Scenario (Preferred):<\/strong> Continued downside into the nearby support zone is preferred if bearish momentum holds.<\/p>\n

Bullish Scenario (Alternative):<\/strong> A move to overhead resistance followed by a full candle close above could shift structure back to bullish.<\/p>\n

Setup:<\/strong> No new FVG setup formed this week. The market may remain reactive without fresh structure.<\/p>\n

\"week<\/a><\/p>\n


\n

US30<\/span><\/h3>\n

Market Context:<\/strong> Price continues its bullish momentum with minimal corrections. Last Thursday tapped resistance, and Friday brought a minor pullback after filling previous FVG liquidity.<\/p>\n

Bullish Scenario (Preferred):<\/strong> Continuation toward swing highs remains the base case if momentum persists.<\/p>\n

Bearish Scenario (Alternative)<\/strong>: A deeper correction may occur after resistance tests, potentially targeting the swing lows.<\/p>\n

Setup:<\/strong> No valid FVG setup has formed this or last week. Traders should watch for reactive pullbacks.<\/p>\n

\"week<\/a><\/p>\n


\n

Opportunities to Watch This Week<\/h2>\n

XAUUSD<\/span><\/h3>\n

Market Context:<\/strong> Gold confirmed its long-term bullish trend after reclaiming the all-time high. A brief correction at the end of the week led to a new short FVG setup, following a failed attempt earlier.<\/p>\n

Bearish Scenario (Preferred):<\/strong> A short-term pullback into support zones with a potential sweep of swing lows remains the base case.<\/p>\n

Bullish Scenario (Alternative):<\/strong> Close above resistance could invalidate the short bias and reintroduce long targets.<\/p>\n

Setup: <\/strong>A valid short FVG setup is active this week. Last week’s setup was invalidated by stop-out; the current setup is still valid.<\/p>\n

\"week<\/a><\/p>\n


\n

GBPJPY<\/span><\/h3>\n

Market Context:<\/strong> GBPJPY trades above both 20 and 50 EMAs, confirming a strong bullish structure. Price action favours further upside after rebounding from short-term support.<\/p>\n

Bullish Scenario (Preferred):<\/strong> Upside continuation into resistance and targeting swing highs is preferred.<\/p>\n

Bearish Scenario (Alternative)<\/strong>: Break below support could trigger a drop into the FVG zone from previous lows for liquidity fill.<\/p>\n

Setup: <\/strong>A valid FVG long setup is active this week. Last week’s attempt hit SL, but this week\u2019s setup remains in play.<\/p>\n

\"week<\/a><\/p>\n


\n

All information provided on this site is intended solely for educational purposes related to trading on financial markets and does not serve in any way as a specific investment recommendation, business recommendation, investment opportunity analysis or similar general recommendation regarding the trading of investment instruments. FTMO only provides services of simulated trading and educational tools for traders. The information on this site is not directed at residents in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local laws or regulations. FTMO companies do not act as a broker and do not accept any deposits. The offered technical solution for the FTMO platforms and data feed is powered by liquidity providers.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Markets brace for a volatile week with CPI on Tuesday, retail sales and PPI Thursday, followed by Powell\u2019s speech. A hotter CPI or hawkish Powell could slam the brakes on rate cut hopes, while soft data may ignite a risk-on rally. Are you ready for this week? \u2022 US CPI Inflation comes back into focus […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":91,"featured_media":659127,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[89210],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-659085","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-trading-week-ahead"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nTrading Week Ahead: CPI, Retail Sales & Powell in Focus | FTMO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/en\/trading-week-ahead-week-20\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Trading Week Ahead: CPI, Retail Sales & Powell in Focus\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Markets brace for a volatile week with CPI on Tuesday, retail sales and PPI Thursday, followed by Powell\u2019s speech. 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