{"id":654157,"date":"2025-04-14T12:30:56","date_gmt":"2025-04-14T10:30:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/?p=654157"},"modified":"2025-04-14T13:41:22","modified_gmt":"2025-04-14T11:41:22","slug":"trading-week-ahead-16","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/en\/trading-week-ahead-16\/","title":{"rendered":"Trading Week Ahead: Can U.S. Data Steady Markets Amid Tariff Tensions?"},"content":{"rendered":"

U.S. retail sales<\/strong>, jobless claims<\/strong>, and Powell\u2019s speech<\/strong> could shake markets this week. With rising tariff tensions, inflation and rate expectations are in focus. Are you ready for a potential shift in the dollar and global sentiment?<\/p>\n

\u2022 U.S. Retail Sales Test Economy\u2019s Resilience<\/strong>
\nThis week, all eyes are on March U.S. retail sales, as investors seek fresh clues about the health of the American consumer – the engine behind the world\u2019s largest economy. A stronger-than-expected reading could reinforce inflationary pressures and reduce the likelihood of a near-term Fed rate cut. On the other hand, weaker data may revive recession concerns and put downward pressure on the dollar.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Powell in Focus: Will He Shift the Fed\u2019s Tone?
\n<\/strong>On Wednesday, attention will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell\u2019s speech for clues on policy direction. A hawkish tone could lift the dollar, while a dovish shift may boost market sentiment.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u2022 Jobless Claims to Offer Fresh Labour Market Insight<\/strong>
\nOn Thursday, the weekly unemployment claims report will provide a timely snapshot of U.S. job market conditions amid growing economic uncertainty. Analysts expect a slight rise from 223,000 to 227,000 filings. While modest, any unexpected jump could signal labour market softening, fuelling rate cut expectations. Conversely, stable or falling claims would support the narrative of a still-resilient jobs market.<\/p>\n

\n \n \n \n \n
Date<\/th>\n Time<\/th>\n Instrument<\/th>\n Event<\/th>\n <\/tr>\n <\/thead>\n
Tuesday, Apr. 15<\/td>8:00 AM<\/span><\/td>\"GBP\"<\/span>GBP<\/span><\/td>Claimant Count Change<\/span><\/td><\/tr>
2:30 PM<\/span><\/td>\"CAD\"<\/span>CAD<\/span><\/td>CPI<\/span><\/td><\/tr>
Wednesday, Apr. 16<\/td>4:00 AM<\/span><\/td>\"CNY\"<\/span>CNY<\/span><\/td>GDP<\/span><\/td><\/tr>
8:00 AM<\/span><\/td>\"GBP\"<\/span>GBP<\/span><\/td>CPI<\/span><\/td><\/tr>
11:00 AM<\/span><\/td>\"EUR\"<\/span>EUR<\/span><\/td>CPI<\/span><\/td><\/tr>
2:30 PM<\/span><\/td>\"USD\"<\/span>USD<\/span><\/td>Retail Sales<\/span><\/td><\/tr>
3:45 PM<\/span><\/td>\"CAD\"<\/span>CAD<\/span><\/td>BOC Monetary Policy Report<\/span><\/td><\/tr>
4:30 PM<\/span><\/td>\"CAD\"<\/span>CAD<\/span><\/td>BOC Press Conference<\/span><\/td><\/tr>
7:15 PM<\/span><\/td>\"USD\"<\/span>USD<\/span><\/td>Fed Chair Powell Speaks<\/span><\/td><\/tr>
Thursday, Apr. 17<\/td>12:45 AM<\/span><\/td>\"NZD\"<\/span>NZD<\/span><\/td>CPI<\/span><\/td><\/tr>
3:30 AM<\/span><\/td>\"AUD\"<\/span>AUD<\/span><\/td>Employment Change<\/span><\/td><\/tr>
2:15 PM<\/span><\/td>\"EUR\"<\/span>EUR<\/span><\/td>Monetary Policy Statement<\/span><\/td><\/tr>
2:30 PM<\/span><\/td>\"USD\"<\/span>USD<\/span><\/td>Unemployment Claims<\/span><\/td><\/tr>
2:45 PM<\/span><\/td>\"EUR\"<\/span>EUR<\/span><\/td>ECB Press Conference<\/span><\/td><\/tr> <\/tbody>\n <\/table>\n<\/div>\n

*All times in the table are in GMT+2<\/p>\n

Technical Analysis Using the FVG Strategy<\/h2>\n

This technical approach utilises the EMA<\/a> 20 and EMA 50 indicators to identify market direction, combined with the Fair Value Gap (FVG)<\/a>. FVG highlights price imbalances resulting from rapid market movements, pinpointing essential entry and exit opportunities. The strategy is suitable for EURUSD<\/strong>, GBPJPY<\/strong>, US30<\/strong>, and XAUUSD<\/strong>, offering insights into market conditions from the previous week as well as ongoing opportunities.<\/p>\n

Last Week\u2019s Opportunities<\/h2>\n

US30<\/span><\/h3>\n

Market Context:<\/strong> After a sharp decline, the US30 recovered and gained bullish momentum early in the week. On Wednesday, the price approached a resistance area aligned with a previously identified imbalance (Fair Value Gap), where the upward movement lost steam. A reaction followed near the 20 EMA, and by Friday, the index closed on a strong note.<\/p>\n

Bullish Scenario (Preferred):<\/strong> If the current momentum continues, the market may approach the next resistance zone around 41,602, potentially retesting higher levels from recent weeks.<\/p>\n

Bearish Scenario (Alternative):<\/strong> If resistance holds, the market could retrace toward the low from April 7, especially if sellers regain control near prior imbalance areas.<\/p>\n

Setup:<\/strong> No new FVG setups were identified this week. The previous setup did not play out.<\/p>\n

\"US30\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\n

GBPJPY<\/span><\/h3>\n

Market Context:<\/strong> Despite increased volatility last week, GBPJPY remained in a consolidation phase within a broader bearish structure, as confirmed by its position below the 20 EMA and 50 EMA. Price movement was limited, and the previously monitored short-term imbalance zone (FVG) did not influence price direction in a meaningful way.<\/p>\n

Bearish Scenario (Preferred):<\/strong> Should the market respond to previous FVG resistance zones, continued downward pressure may resume, aligning with the overall trend structure.<\/p>\n

Bullish Scenario (Alternative):<\/strong> If the price manages to push through these resistance areas, a move toward untested swing highs may develop.<\/p>\n

Setup:<\/strong> No valid FVG setups were formed this week. The previous week’s bearish setup was not triggered and is no longer considered valid.<\/p>\n

\"gbpjpy\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\n

Opportunities to Watch This Week<\/h2>\n

EURUSD<\/span><\/h3>\n

Market Context:<\/strong> On Thursday, EURUSD broke above key resistance and cleared two swing highs, continuing its strong bullish momentum into the Friday close. The pair is currently showing elevated strength within the prevailing uptrend.<\/p>\n

Bullish Scenario (Preferred):<\/strong> If the strong bullish momentum continues without significant pullbacks, the market may look to retest higher levels and extend the current trend structure.<\/p>\n

Bearish Scenario (Alternative):<\/strong> Short-term corrections could emerge due to the large bullish candles observed late last week, with nearby support around 1.0942 acting as a potential reaction zone.<\/p>\n

Setup:<\/strong> A long-biased FVG was identified on Friday, with a potential target of 1:2 Reward-to-Risk Ratio, suggesting the market is still in a favourable structure for upward continuation, with potential for further development if momentum holds.<\/p>\n

\"eurusd\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\n

XAUUSD<\/span><\/h3>\n

Market Context:<\/strong> After a notable pullback two weeks ago, gold regained strength last week and continued in line with its long-term trend. Starting Wednesday, momentum picked up, and by Thursday, a new high was reached, followed by a strong Friday close.<\/p>\n

Bullish Scenario (Preferred):<\/strong> If momentum continues without interruption, gold may look to establish a new leg higher, supported by the broader bullish trend.<\/p>\n

Bearish Scenario (Alternative):<\/strong> Short-term consolidation or corrective movement is possible, especially toward previous support zones from last week, as the market digests the recent sharp move.<\/p>\n

Setup:<\/strong> A long-orientated FVG formed on Friday, with a potential target of 1:2 Reward-to-Risk Ratio, indicating that the continuation of the bullish structure remains in play, although short-term reactions to recent support areas should be monitored.<\/p>\n

\"xauusd\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\n

All information provided on this site is intended solely for educational purposes related to trading on financial markets and does not serve in any way as a specific investment recommendation, business recommendation, investment opportunity analysis or similar general recommendation regarding the trading of investment instruments. FTMO only provides services of simulated trading and educational tools for traders. The information on this site is not directed at residents in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local laws or regulations. FTMO companies do not act as a broker and do not accept any deposits. The offered technical solution for the FTMO platforms and data feed is powered by liquidity providers.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

U.S. retail sales, jobless claims, and Powell\u2019s speech could shake markets this week. With rising tariff tensions, inflation and rate expectations are in focus. Are you ready for a potential shift in the dollar and global sentiment? \u2022 U.S. Retail Sales Test Economy\u2019s Resilience This week, all eyes are on March U.S. retail sales, as […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":91,"featured_media":654383,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[89210],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-654157","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-trading-week-ahead"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nTrading Week Ahead: Can U.S. Data Steady Markets Amid Tariff Tensions? | FTMO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/en\/trading-week-ahead-16\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Trading Week Ahead: Can U.S. Data Steady Markets Amid Tariff Tensions?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"U.S. retail sales, jobless claims, and Powell\u2019s speech could shake markets this week. 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