{"id":541969,"date":"2023-01-06T13:30:19","date_gmt":"2023-01-06T12:30:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/?p=541969"},"modified":"2023-02-14T16:36:40","modified_gmt":"2023-02-14T15:36:40","slug":"what-to-prepare-for-in-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/en\/what-to-prepare-for-in-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"What to prepare for in 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"

Making predictions for the whole year is still associated with an uncertain outcome, because nobody can predict the future. Moreover, this year is special because what is happening in the markets is quite strongly influenced by factors that most investors and analysts are not used to. So what should we prepare for this year?<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

The turn of the year is the ideal time to take an inventory of the past year and make predictions for the next one. This year, the possibility of some more accurate estimates is even more difficult than ever, but even this does not deter some analysts from making optimistic predictions. However, optimism is not always a good starting point for making short- or long-term forecasts in financial markets, and this year\u2019s greater uncertainty could lead to more sober predictions for the next year.<\/span><\/p>\n

Beware of analysts<\/h2>\n

First and foremost, we should remember that market events are quite strongly influenced by expectations. However, defining our expectations according to analysts’ forecasts is one of the biggest mistakes we could make. We do not have to go far to find an example of when optimism has significantly influenced analysts’ forecasts, just to the beginning of last year. After almost two years of strong growth in equities following the Covid pandemic, more growth was expected (how else). However, the S&P 500 index has been declining practically since the beginning of the year, posting its worst drop since the financial crisis.<\/p>\n

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Here\u2019s where the sharpest brains on Wall Street predicted the S&P 500 would end 2022:<\/p>\n

BMO – 5,300
\nWells Fargo – 5,200
\nGoldman Sachs – 5,100
\nJP Morgan – 5,050<\/p>\n

Today it\u2019s 3,854 – not one of them came close.<\/p>\n

Pay zero attention to next year\u2019s predictions.<\/p>\n

No one\u2019s got a clue.<\/p>\n

\u2014 Alan Smith (@AlanJLSmith) December 30, 2022<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n