30 October 2023
- Israel is escalating its ground operations in Gaza, carrying out airstrikes targeting hundreds of Hamas positions. The conflict, now in its third week, has led to a telecommunications blackout in Gaza, disrupting rescue operations. The humanitarian situation is dire, with shortages of essential supplies such as food, water, and medicine, leading residents to break into UN warehouses for survival supplies. The Palestinian Red Crescent has received warnings to evacuate hospitals due to Israeli threats. Despite international calls for a ceasefire and humanitarian aid, the conflict persists. Israel has deployed troops into Gaza, focusing on destroying Hamas infrastructure, and international leaders are expressing concern about the situation.
- China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi has noted that the path to the expected meeting between President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Joe Biden, known as the “San Francisco summit,” will not be without challenges. Wang recently held talks with U.S. officials in Washington and agreed to work toward this anticipated bilateral meeting during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum summit. The road to the summit, as Wang explained, will not be “on autopilot.” Last month, China suggested that the meeting depended on the U.S. demonstrating sufficient sincerity. Wang emphasized the need for both countries to return to the agreements reached during their last meeting in Bali and work on stabilizing and improving relations, even as differences persist. The discussions also covered various topics, including military interactions, finance, science and technology, China’s investment environment, and global crises in the Middle East and Ukraine.
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy called for his 10-point peace formula with Russia to become a global model at a meeting of over 60 national security advisers in Malta. The meeting, held behind closed doors, aimed to assess the ability of Ukraine and the West to secure continued and broader support for the conflict in Ukraine. Zelenskiy expressed his hope for a future of peace and criticized the ongoing violence. His peace plan includes restoring Ukraine’s territorial integrity, withdrawing Russian troops, ensuring food and energy supplies, and addressing nuclear safety and prisoner release. The aim of the meeting was to reach an agreement for a global peace summit later in the year. Notable participants included Armenia, the Holy See, and Mexico, while China, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates did not participate.
What to watch out for this week
- In the United States, the primary focus will be on the US FOMC meeting, wherepolicymakers are expected to maintain current interest rates. Key areas of interest include expectations for the upcoming December meeting and indications of the conditions that would prompt the FOMC to consider rate cuts in the upcoming year. Turning to economic data, the US jobs report is expected to show a modest increase of 172,000 non-farm payrolls in October, a significant drop from the 336,000 jobs added in September. The unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 3.8%, with monthly wage growth projected to rise from 0.2% to 0.3%. Also keep an eye on other releases, including October’s ISM PMI surveys, JOLTs job openings, Q3 Employment Cost Index and Productivity, Case-Shiller home prices, ADP Employment Change, factory orders, and regional activity indices such as the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index and Chicago PMI.
- In the Euro Area, inflation is expected to have fallen to 3.4% in October, the lowest level in two years, and the core inflation rate is expected to fall from 4.5% to 4.2%. GDP is expected to have contracted by 0.1% in Q3, after the economy grew just 0.1% in two quarters of of sluggish growth. Germany’s GDP is also expected to have contracted by 0.3%, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of stagnant growth. Preliminary GDP growth figures for France and Italy as well as inflation data for Germany, France, Italy, and Spain will be closely watched. Also keep an eye on manufacturing and services PMIs, Euro Area business sentiment, and unemployment figures. In Germany, pay attention to unemployment data, retail sales, and trade statistics. Also noteworthy are Sweden’s GDP growth and inflation rates for Switzerland and Turkey.
- In the UK, the focus will be on the Bank of England’s monetary policy decision, with expectations that the central bank will maintain its current interest rates. Investors will be paying close attention to any clues about the central bank’s plans for the rest of the year. Mortgage and credit indicators will also be on the radar.
All information provided on this site is intended solely for the study purposes related to trading on financial markets and does not serve in any way as a specific investment recommendation, business recommendation, investment opportunity, analysis or similar general recommendation regarding the trading of investment instruments. The content, in its entirety or parts, is the sole opinion of FTMO and is intended for educational purposes only. The historical results and/or track record does not imply that the same progress is replicable and does not guarantee profits or future profitable trading records or any promises whatsoever. Trading in financial markets is a high-risk activity and it is advised not to risk more than one can afford to lose!