23 October 2023
- The message provides information related to a proposed U.N. Security Council resolution on the Israel-Palestine conflict and Iran’s involvement. Discussed is the United States draft resolution supporting Israel’s right to self-defense and calling for an end to Iran’s arms exports to groups threatening peace and security in the region. The resolution emphasizes protecting civilians, compliance with international law, and providing aid to Gaza. The text does not mention a ceasefire. The U.S. vetoed an earlier draft resolution from Brazil focused on humanitarian pauses in the conflict. The situation includes clashes between Israel and Hamas, ongoing violence, and diplomatic efforts.
- The United States and Britain have expressed concern and criticized India for demanding that Canada reduce its diplomatic presence in India amid a dispute over the murder of a Sikh separatist. Canada withdrew 41 diplomats from India after alleging Indian involvement in the murder, a claim India denies. The U.S. and UK urged India to cooperate with Canada in the murder investigation but were cautious because of the importance of their ties with India, which is seen as a counterbalance to China. They emphasized the need for diplomatic presence to resolve differences and upheld the 1961 Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations.
- A Chinese citizen who worked at a defense institute in China has been accused of spying for the United States. His case was transferred to a court in Chengdu for trial. The Chinese citizen, surnamed Hou, was sent to a U.S. university as a visiting scholar in 2013, where he was allegedly coerced into revealing Chinese state secrets. According to Chinese state media, an American “intelligence officer” approached him under the guise of an employee of a consulting company, which led to espionage activities in exchange for payments. China has intensified its efforts to counter espionage and tighten national security.
What to watch out for this week
- In the United States, we are heading into a particularly busy week on the earnings calendar, with big-name tech giants like Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon scheduled to report their results. Additionally, there are several other major companies of interest, including 3M Co, Coca-Cola, General Motors, Spotify, Verizon Communications, Snap, Visa, Mastercard, Automatic Data Processing, Boeing, CME Group, Merck & Co, Ford Motor, Intel, Chevron, and Exxon Mobil.
- Shifting the focus to the economic calendar, the United States will publish advance estimatse of third-quarter GDP, along with personal outlays and income data for September. Forecasts suggest that the US economy grew at an annual rate of 4.1% in Q3, an acceleration from 2.1% growth in the previous quarter. This growth is attributed to robust consumer spending and increased private investment. Core PCE prices are expected to have risen 0.3% in September, a slight increase compared to the 0.1% increase seen in August. The report is also likely to indicate a 0.3% rise in consumer spending and a 0.4% increase in income for the same period. Investors will also be closely monitoring several other economic indicators, including September durable goods orders, the flash S&P Global PMI survey, new and pending home sales, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, the advance estimates of wholesale sales, and the goods trade balance, as well as the final reading of the Michigan consumer sentiment.
- In Europe, the European Central Bank is widely expected to keep its current interest rates unchanged, signaling a pause in its tightening efforts following ten consecutive rate hikes. On the macroeconomic front, preliminary data is likely to show a decline in consumer confidence in the Euro Area due to renewed concerns about inflation due to rising oil prices and the ongoing Middle East conflict. In Germany, the GfK consumer climate indicator is expected to fall to its lowest level in seven months, and the German Ifo business climate indicator is expected to fall to a one-year low. Additionally, initial PMI readings are expected to reveal a continuing, albeit mild, contraction in business activity across the bloc’s private sector, with both manufacturing and services output declining at a slower pace. Other significant data releases include France’s consumer sentiment and employment statistics, Italy’s business and consumer surveys, Spain’s flash Q3 GDP figures, and unemployment data, as well as Turkey’s interest rate decision and business confidence reports.
- In the United Kingdom, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is scheduled to release the latest jobs report. At the same time, preliminary PMI data is expected to point to a less pronounced contraction in both the manufacturing and services sectors. Furthermore, the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) will provide data on factory orders, business confidence, and distributive trades.
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