02 October 2023
- Kosovo has called for Serbia to withdraw its troops from their shared border, citing concerns over its territorial integrity. Tensions escalated after a recent clash between Kosovo police and armed Serbs in a monastery, resulting in casualties. International entities like the United States and NATO are closely monitoring the situation, with NATO authorising additional forces to address the ongoing tensions in the region.
- Saudi Arabia is reportedly eager to secure a military pact with the United States, offering to defend the kingdom in exchange for normalised ties with Israel. The pact, still under negotiation, may not guarantee the level of defence initially sought by Saudi Arabia, but could resemble treaties the U.S. has with Asian states, or the agreement it has with Bahrain. While such a deal would reshape the Middle East and align two historical foes, it could face resistance in the U.S. Congress, where concerns over Saudi Arabia’s past actions and human rights issues persist.
- The United States has imposed sanctions on two companies and one individual for their alleged roles in worsening the instability in Sudan amid ongoing violence and displacement of civilians. The sanctions target Ali Karti, a former foreign minister who later became a leader of the Sudanese Islamic Movement, as well as GSK Advance Company, a Sudan-based firm that allegedly served as a procurement channel for the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Russia-based military supply company Aviatrade, which collaborated with GSK Advance Company in providing parts, supplies, and training for RSF drones, was also sanctioned. The U.S. has been imposing sanctions in response to the conflict between the army and RSF, as well as efforts to undermine Sudan’s democratic transition.
What to watch out for this week
- In the United States, the first week of October brings high anticipation for the US jobs report. On Friday, all eyes will be set to Non-Farm Employment Change which recorded only 150 thousand newly employed people in September, marking the lowest growth in three months. Furthermore, the unemployment rate is likely to have eased to 3.7%, with wage growth expected to remain at 4.1%. Investors will also be attentive to speeches by various Fed officials, JOLTs job openings, factory orders, foreign trade data, and PMI surveys from both the ISM and S&P Global. ISM PMIs are anticipated to signal another month of contraction in the US manufacturing sector, accompanied by a milder increase in service sector activity.
- In Europe, data is anticipated to reveal a second consecutive monthly decline in retail sales for the Euro Area in August. Germany is expected to witness a rebound in factory orders following a significant drop not seen since April 2020, while France may experience a decline in industrial production after a recovery in July. Other significant data releases include the Euro Area’s unemployment rate, Germany’s balance of trade, Italy’s unemployment rate and retail sales, France’s foreign trade figures, Spain’s unemployment rate, Switzerland’s inflation rate, jobless data, and retail sales, along with Turkey’s consumer prices and foreign trade statistics.
- In the United Kingdom, investors will closely monitor housing prices reported by Nationwide and Halifax.
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