Statistische App – Analyse der ersten Stunde

In dieser Analyse untersuchen wir erste Handelsstunde, auf dem Dax Index von 08: 00-08: 59 (CEST), und wir fragen nach Wahrscheinlichkeit eines Durchbruchs  des High oder Low Bereichs der ersten Handelsstunde innerhalb der folgenden Stunde 09:00-09:59.

Diese Analyse hat folgende Spalten

Range

Shows a range that is calculated as the difference between the High and the Low of the first trading hour 08:00-08:59.

Occurrence

Shows how many times the given range occurred. The range of 43 points has occured 17 times.

(Breaking H or L) Probability of breaking the High or the Low

Shows the probability of breaking the first our low or the first hour high. In this case, the high or the low was broken in next hour in 100% of the 17 occurrences.

(Breaking H and L) Probability of breaking the High and the Low

Shows the probability of breaking the first our low and the first hour high. In this case, the high and the low was broken low in next hour in 41% of the 17 occurrences.

Summary

The first trading hour of the Dax had a range of 17 points. This range occurred 17 times. In the following hour, the high or the low of the first hour was broken in 100% (all 17 occurrences of 43-point range). Also in the following hour, the high and the low of the first hour was broken in 41% of 17 occurrences.

How to use this statistic

If we know that in the past all 17 occurrences the High or the low of the first hour was broken, then high or the low are very good levels where to target a trade. Also after the Dax breaks High or the Low of the first hour, then the second extreme (High or Low of the first hour) is a great level where to place SL, because in the second trading hour, the second extreme was broken in just 41% of 17 occurrences.