{"id":646405,"date":"2024-12-06T15:30:19","date_gmt":"2024-12-06T14:30:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/?p=646405"},"modified":"2024-12-06T15:58:47","modified_gmt":"2024-12-06T14:58:47","slug":"ekonomicky-kalendar-trh-prace-rekne-o-ekonomice-hodne","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/cs\/ekonomicky-kalendar-trh-prace-rekne-o-ekonomice-hodne\/","title":{"rendered":"Ekonomick\u00fd kalend\u00e1\u0159 \u2013 trh pr\u00e1ce \u0159ekne o ekonomice hodn\u011b"},"content":{"rendered":"
Zpr\u00e1vy z\u00a0trhu pr\u00e1ce t\u00fdkaj\u00edc\u00ed se nov\u00fdch pracovn\u00edch m\u00edst nebo nezam\u011bstnanosti jsou jedn\u00edm z\u00a0nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edch faktor\u016f ovliv\u0148uj\u00edc\u00edch d\u011bn\u00ed na finan\u010dn\u00edch trz\u00edch. Podle n\u011bkter\u00fdch ekonom\u016f poskytuje trh pr\u00e1ce mnohem lep\u0161\u00ed obraz o stavu ekonomiky ne\u017e nap\u0159\u00edklad tolik popul\u00e1rn\u00ed \u00fadaj o HDP.<\/em><\/p>\n Zpr\u00e1vy z\u00a0trhu pr\u00e1ce pat\u0159\u00ed mezi nejsledovan\u011bj\u0161\u00ed data, kter\u00e1 se pravideln\u011b objevuj\u00ed v\u00a0ekonomick\u00e9m kalend\u00e1\u0159i. Jde o jeden z\u00a0ukazatel\u016f o stavu ekonomiky, na jeho\u017e z\u00e1klad\u011b se rozhoduj\u00ed centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky p\u0159i stanovov\u00e1n\u00ed sv\u00e9 monet\u00e1rn\u00ed politiky.<\/p>\n Dlouhodob\u011b je za ukazatel zdrav\u00ed a v\u00fdkonnosti ekonomiky pova\u017eov\u00e1n \u00fadaj o HDP<\/a>. V\u00a0posledn\u00edch letech pak byla jedn\u00edm z\u00a0hlavn\u00edch faktor\u016f ovliv\u0148uj\u00edc\u00ed rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank o \u00farokov\u00fdch sazb\u00e1ch pova\u017eov\u00e1na inflace. Ve druh\u00e9 polovin\u011b roku 2024 je ale jasn\u011b patrn\u00e9, \u017ee centr\u00e1ln\u00ed bank\u00e9\u0159i<\/a>, a zejm\u00e9na ti v\u00a0USA, d\u00e1vaj\u00ed nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed v\u00e1hu p\u0159i rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed o monet\u00e1rn\u00ed politice pr\u00e1v\u011b zpr\u00e1v\u00e1m z\u00a0trhu pr\u00e1ce.<\/p>\n V\u00a0\u010dase, kdy se inflace bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed k\u00a0c\u00edli centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank\u00e9\u0159\u016f na \u00farovni kolem 2 % meziro\u010dn\u011b, je situace na trhu pr\u00e1ce a \u00farove\u0148 nezam\u011bstnanosti pr\u00e1v\u011b t\u00edm faktorem, kter\u00fd m\u016f\u017ee m\u00edt p\u0159\u00edm\u00fd vliv na rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed o dal\u0161\u00edm mo\u017en\u00e9m pohybu \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb. Samotn\u00fd \u0161\u00e9f americk\u00e9ho Fedu za\u010d\u00e1tkem \u0159\u00edjna 2024 zm\u00ednil, \u017ee trh pr\u00e1ce poskytuje lep\u0161\u00ed obr\u00e1zek o stavu ekonomiky ne\u017e HDP (proto ta zm\u00ednka o HDP na za\u010d\u00e1tku \u010dl\u00e1nku) a \u0161\u00e9f Minneapolisk\u00e9ho Fedu Neel Kashkari zase vid\u00ed ve zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 nezam\u011bstnanosti pro ekonomiku v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed rizika, ne\u017e je zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e1 inflace<\/a>.<\/p>\n V\u00a0minulosti e m\u011blo obecn\u011b za to, \u017ee dobr\u00e1 \u010d\u00edsla z\u00a0trhu pr\u00e1ce nazna\u010duj\u00ed prosperuj\u00edc\u00ed ekonomiku, co\u017e vede k\u00a0mo\u017en\u00e9mu r\u016fstu mezd (a t\u00edm mo\u017en\u00e9mu r\u016fstu inflace) a ke spekulac\u00edm o mo\u017en\u00e9m zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb ze strany centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank. To n\u00e1sledn\u011b l\u00e1k\u00e1 investory a tradery, kte\u0159\u00ed m\u011bnu dan\u00e9 zem\u011b pova\u017euj\u00ed za atraktivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a jej\u00ed hodnota m\u016f\u017ee r\u016fst. V\u00a0dne\u0161n\u00ed dob\u011b u\u017e v\u0161ak nemus\u00ed klesaj\u00edc\u00ed nezam\u011bstnanost v\u00e9st k\u00a0r\u016fstu mezd, proto\u017ee zam\u011bstnavatel\u00e9 mohou u\u0161et\u0159it na mzd\u00e1ch d\u00edky modern\u00edm technologi\u00edm apod. Odhadov\u00e1n\u00ed inflace prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm situace na trhu pr\u00e1ce je tak slo\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a stav\u00ed tak pr\u00e1v\u011b trh pr\u00e1ce do pop\u0159ed\u00ed p\u0159i rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank\u00e9\u0159\u016f o nastaven\u00ed m\u011bnov\u00e9 politiky.<\/p>\n Dat z\u00a0trhu pr\u00e1ce se v\u00a0ekonomick\u00e9m kalend\u00e1\u0159i vyskytuje pom\u011brn\u011b hodn\u011b, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e r\u016fzn\u00e9 zem\u011b publikuj\u00ed r\u016fzn\u011b detailn\u00ed zpr\u00e1vy t\u00fdkaj\u00edc\u00ed se celkov\u00e9ho po\u010dtu p\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b zm\u011bny v po\u010dtu\u00a0 zam\u011bstnan\u00fdch a nezam\u011bstnan\u00fdch osob, velikosti p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f, m\u00edry participace apod. Nejrozs\u00e1hlej\u0161\u00ed d\u00e1vku dat samoz\u0159ejm\u011b dost\u00e1v\u00e1me z USA, ale tradery samoz\u0159ejm\u011b zaj\u00edm\u00e1 tak\u00e9 situace na trhu pr\u00e1ce nap\u0159\u00edklad v\u00a0Evrop\u011b, UK, nebo v\u00a0Japonsku apod.<\/p>\n V\u00a0drtiv\u00e9 v\u011bt\u0161in\u011b jde o ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed data a jen v\u00fdjime\u010dn\u011b se sleduj\u00ed data a pr\u016fzkumy od soukrom\u00fdch firem. Ve v\u011bt\u0161in\u011b zem\u00ed se data z\u00a0trhu pr\u00e1ce publikuj\u00ed na m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed b\u00e1zi, ale nap\u0159\u00edklad data za EU se publikuj\u00ed na kvart\u00e1ln\u00ed b\u00e1zi a v\u00a0UK se sice data publikuj\u00ed jednou za m\u011bs\u00edc, ale jde o pr\u016fm\u011bry za posledn\u00ed t\u0159i m\u011bs\u00edce.<\/p>\n Asi nejsledovan\u011bj\u0161\u00edm \u00fadajem, kter\u00fd trade\u0159i sleduj\u00ed v\u00a0ekonomick\u00e9m kalend\u00e1\u0159i, je zm\u011bna zam\u011bstnanosti mimo zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00fd sektor v USA, v\u0161eobecn\u011b ozna\u010dovan\u00e1 jako Nonfarm Payrolls<\/a>, o n\u00ed\u017e jsme detailn\u011b psali v\u00a0prvn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti na\u0161eho seri\u00e1lu o ud\u00e1lostech v\u00a0ekonomick\u00e9m kalend\u00e1\u0159i.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n
Trh pr\u00e1ce d\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e inflace<\/h2>\n
Na co si d\u00e1t pozor<\/h2>\n
NFP, nezam\u011bstnanost a dal\u0161\u00ed<\/h2>\n