{"id":642482,"date":"2024-10-04T14:30:36","date_gmt":"2024-10-04T12:30:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/?p=642482"},"modified":"2024-10-09T15:13:23","modified_gmt":"2024-10-09T13:13:23","slug":"proc-byste-si-meli-davat-pozor-na-korelaci-aktiv","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/cs\/proc-byste-si-meli-davat-pozor-na-korelaci-aktiv\/","title":{"rendered":"Pro\u010d byste si m\u011bli d\u00e1vat pozor na korelaci aktiv"},"content":{"rendered":"

Kdy\u017e chcete rozd\u011blit sv\u00e9 riziko mezi v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed mno\u017estv\u00ed n\u00e1stroj\u016f, m\u011bli byste myslet na jejich vz\u00e1jemnou korelaci. Ceny jednotliv\u00fdch aktiv se toti\u017e nepohybuj\u00ed zcela nez\u00e1visle. Znalost t\u00e9to z\u00e1vislosti m\u016f\u017ee trader\u016fm v\u00fdrazn\u011b pomoci p\u0159i spr\u00e1v\u011b rizika a dosahov\u00e1n\u00ed lep\u0161\u00edch v\u00fdsledk\u016f.<\/em><\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e u\u017e tedy chcete obchodovat (resp. investovat) na finan\u010dn\u00edch trz\u00edch, m\u011bli byste si promyslet, kolik n\u00e1stroj\u016f vlastn\u011b chcete, nebo zvl\u00e1dnete, obchodovat. Jako trade\u0159i nebo investo\u0159i m\u00e1te na v\u00fdb\u011br spoustu instrument\u016f a kdy\u017e u\u017e se rozhodnete diverzifikovat riziko mezi n\u011bkolik n\u00e1stroj\u016f, je dobr\u00e9 si zjistit jejich vz\u00e1jemnou korelaci. Jde o to, abyste se neoctli v situaci, kdy \u0161patn\u00e1 diverzifikace zbyte\u010dn\u011b zvy\u0161uje va\u0161i expozici do n\u011bkter\u00e9ho n\u00e1stroje a nam\u00edsto rozm\u011bln\u011bn\u00ed rizika doch\u00e1z\u00ed k jeho zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Co je korelace<\/h2>\n

Korelace je zjednodu\u0161en\u011b \u0159e\u010deno m\u011b\u0159\u00edtko nebo ukazatel, kter\u00fd vyjad\u0159uje vz\u00e1jemn\u00fd vztah dvou prom\u011bnn\u00fdch. Ve sv\u011bt\u011b financ\u00ed korelace vyjad\u0159uje to, jak t\u011bsn\u00fd je vz\u00e1jemn\u00fd vtah dvou investi\u010dn\u00edch n\u00e1stroj\u016f (nebo t\u0159\u00edd aktiv), resp. do jak\u00e9 m\u00edry je pohyb ceny dvou aktiv ve vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9m souladu. \u010c\u00edm vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed je korelace, t\u00edm podobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed je v\u00fdvoj cen dvou investi\u010dn\u00edch n\u00e1stroj\u016f a naopak, \u010d\u00edm rozd\u00edln\u011bji se ceny pohybuj\u00ed, t\u00edm je korelace ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed. Kdy\u017e tedy diverzifikujete portfolio, nebo otev\u00edr\u00e1te pozice u dvou n\u00e1stroj\u016f s\u00a0vysokou korelac\u00ed, m\u016f\u017eete m\u00edt pocit, \u017ee jste omezujete sv\u00e9 riziko, ale ve skute\u010dnosti je va\u0161e riziko mnohem vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e si mysl\u00edte.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Korelace se m\u011b\u0159\u00ed koeficientem, kter\u00fd se pohybuje v rozmez\u00ed -1 a\u017e 1, p\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b -100 % a\u017e 100 %. \u010c\u00edm je korelace bli\u017e\u0161\u00ed k nule, t\u00edm je v\u00fdvoj cen dvou aktiv m\u00e9n\u011b z\u00e1visl\u00fd, tzn. kdy\u017e maj\u00ed dv\u011b aktiva korelaci 0, pohyb jejich cen spolu v\u016fbec nesouvis\u00ed. Kdy\u017e je korelace 1 (100 %), znamen\u00e1 to, \u017ee pohyb cen dvou aktiv je stejn\u00fd, kdy\u017e je korelace -1 (-100 %), znamen\u00e1 to, \u017ee se ceny aktiv pohybuj\u00ed p\u0159esn\u011b opa\u010dn\u00fdm sm\u011brem. Obecn\u011b je korelace nad 70 a pod -70 pova\u017eov\u00e1na za vysokou korelaci, kdy\u017e je v rozmez\u00ed -20 a\u017e 20, jsou ceny aktiv prakticky nekorelovan\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Investo\u0159i vs. trade\u0159i<\/h2>\n

Pro dlouhodob\u00e9 investory je korelace velmi dobr\u00fdm n\u00e1strojem, jen\u017e pom\u00e1h\u00e1 k efektivn\u00ed diverzifikaci. Je pro n\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e1 jak korelace mezi jednotliv\u00fdmi t\u0159\u00eddami aktiv, ale tak\u00e9 korelace v\u00a0r\u00e1mci jednotliv\u00fdch t\u0159\u00edd aktiv. Nap\u0159\u00edklad komodity jsou obecn\u011b pova\u017eov\u00e1ny za dobr\u00fd n\u00e1stroj diverzifikace d\u00edky n\u00edzk\u00e9 korelaci s\u00a0akciemi nebo dluhopisy, ale v\u00a0r\u00e1mci akciov\u00e9 slo\u017eky portfolia m\u016f\u017ee investor c\u00edlit do r\u016fzn\u00fdch sektor\u016f, jejich\u017e korelace je tak\u00e9 pom\u011brn\u011b n\u00edzk\u00e1.<\/p>\n

U kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fdch trader\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed obchoduj\u00ed na forexu nebo s\u00a0komoditami, je pochopen\u00ed korelace mezi jednotliv\u00fdmi p\u00e1ry, p\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b mezi m\u011bnami a komoditami, tak\u00e9 velmi d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e1 p\u0159i \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed rizika<\/a> u otev\u00edran\u00fdch pozic. Korelaci mohou vyu\u017e\u00edvat trade\u0159i nap\u0159\u00edklad u hedgingu. Kdy\u017e otev\u00edraj\u00ed opa\u010dn\u00e9 pozice (short a long) u p\u00e1r\u016f, kter\u00e9 maj\u00ed silnou pozitivn\u00ed korelaci, nebo stejn\u00e9 pozice (short nebo long) u p\u00e1r\u016f, kter\u00e9 maj\u00ed silnou negativn\u00ed korelaci, sni\u017euj\u00ed tak riziko mo\u017en\u00fdch ztr\u00e1t. Ti odv\u00e1\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a zku\u0161en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed mohou naopak vyu\u017e\u00edt mo\u017enost otev\u00edrat stejn\u00e9 pozice u siln\u011b korelovan\u00fdch p\u00e1r\u016f (nebo opa\u010dn\u00e9 pozice u negativn\u011b korelovan\u00fdch p\u00e1r\u016f) a vyu\u017e\u00edvat momentum a siln\u00e9 trendy ke zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed sv\u00e9ho v\u00fdnosov\u00e9ho potenci\u00e1lu.<\/p>\n

Co ovliv\u0148uje korelaci<\/h2>\n

Korelace ne forexu je specifick\u00e1 v tom, \u017ee v jednom n\u00e1stroji trader obchoduje dv\u011b m\u011bny, jejich\u017e v\u00fdvoj je ovliv\u0148ov\u00e1n r\u016fzn\u00fdmi faktory ovliv\u0148uj\u00edc\u00ed jednotliv\u00e9 m\u011bny, ale tak\u00e9 jejich vz\u00e1jemnou korelaci. R\u016fzn\u00e9 m\u011bny tak mohou jinak reagovat na tr\u017en\u00ed fundamenty, jako jsou inflace, HDP, nezam\u011bstnanost a rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed o pohybech \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb. D\u016fle\u017eitou roli hraje geopolitick\u00e1 situace nebo n\u00e1lada na trz\u00edch. Kdy\u017e na trz\u00edch vl\u00e1dne \u0161patn\u00e1 n\u00e1lada a averze k riziku, da\u0159\u00ed se v\u00edce m\u011bn\u00e1m, kter\u00e9 jsou pova\u017eov\u00e1ny za tzv. bezpe\u010dn\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edstavy, jako jsou \u0161v\u00fdcarsk\u00fd frank, nebo japonsk\u00fd jen.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

U n\u011bkter\u00fdch m\u011bn mohou m\u00edt pom\u011brn\u011b velk\u00fd vliv tak\u00e9 faktory ovliv\u0148uj\u00edc\u00ed nap\u0159\u00edklad komoditn\u00ed trhy. Velmi zn\u00e1m\u00e1 je negativn\u00ed korelace americk\u00e9ho dolaru a zlata, naopak australsk\u00fd dolar a zlato jsou dlouhodob\u011b pozitivn\u011b korelovan\u00e9 (Austr\u00e1lie pat\u0159\u00ed mezi nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed producenty zlata). Kdy\u017e tedy budete otev\u00edrat pozice na zlatu (XAUUSD) a p\u00e1rech s australsk\u00fdm dolarem, je dobr\u00e9 to m\u00edt na pam\u011bti. Podobn\u011b siln\u00e1 je nap\u0159\u00edklad pozitivn\u00ed korelace mezi ropou a kanadsk\u00fdm dolarem, novoz\u00e9landsk\u00fd dolar je pak v\u00fdrazn\u011b ovliv\u0148ov\u00e1n d\u011bn\u00edm na trhu se zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00fdmi a ml\u00e9\u010dn\u00fdmi produkty.<\/p>\n

Vliv r\u016fzn\u00fdch faktor\u016f na jednotliv\u00e9 m\u011bny vede k\u00a0tomu, \u017ee korelace nen\u00ed statick\u00e1 veli\u010dina a v\u00a0\u010dase se m\u016f\u017ee pom\u011brn\u011b v\u00fdrazn\u011b m\u011bnit. N\u011bkdy se korelace dvou aktiv m\u016f\u017ee na kr\u00e1tkou dobu zv\u00fd\u0161it, dlouhodob\u011b ale m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt n\u00edzk\u00e1, nebo naopak. Tyto zm\u011bny v\u00a0korela\u010dn\u00edch koeficientech v\u0161ak mohou obchodn\u00edci tak\u00e9 vyu\u017e\u00edt ve sv\u016fj prosp\u011bch, kdy prolomen\u00ed dlouhodob\u00e9 korelace u vybran\u00fdch m\u011bnov\u00fdch p\u00e1r\u016f m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159edstavovat vhodnou obchodn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost (v o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed n\u00e1vratu k norm\u00e1lu).<\/p>\n

Z\u00e1v\u011br<\/h2>\n

Znalost korelace mezi jednotliv\u00fdmi t\u0159\u00eddami aktiv nebo na forexu m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt pro zku\u0161en\u00e9 tradery velmi dobr\u00fdm n\u00e1strojem p\u0159i optimalizaci jejich strategi\u00ed a \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed rizik. Pochopen\u00ed korelace a jej\u00ed dynamiky v\u00a0\u010dase m\u016f\u017ee trader\u016fm pomoci zlep\u0161it jejich v\u00fdkonnost a dos\u00e1hnout na stanoven\u00e9 c\u00edle. Obchodujte bezpe\u010dn\u011b!<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Kdy\u017e chcete rozd\u011blit sv\u00e9 riziko mezi v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed mno\u017estv\u00ed n\u00e1stroj\u016f, m\u011bli byste myslet na jejich vz\u00e1jemnou korelaci. Ceny jednotliv\u00fdch aktiv se toti\u017e nepohybuj\u00ed zcela nez\u00e1visle. Znalost t\u00e9to z\u00e1vislosti m\u016f\u017ee trader\u016fm v\u00fdrazn\u011b pomoci p\u0159i spr\u00e1v\u011b rizika a dosahov\u00e1n\u00ed lep\u0161\u00edch v\u00fdsledk\u016f. Kdy\u017e u\u017e tedy chcete obchodovat (resp. investovat) na finan\u010dn\u00edch trz\u00edch, m\u011bli byste si promyslet, kolik n\u00e1stroj\u016f vlastn\u011b […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":44,"featured_media":642562,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[88909],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-642482","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-rady-a-tipy"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nPro\u010d byste si m\u011bli d\u00e1vat pozor na korelaci aktiv | FTMO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/cs\/proc-byste-si-meli-davat-pozor-na-korelaci-aktiv\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"cs_CZ\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Pro\u010d byste si m\u011bli d\u00e1vat pozor na korelaci aktiv\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Kdy\u017e chcete rozd\u011blit sv\u00e9 riziko mezi v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed mno\u017estv\u00ed n\u00e1stroj\u016f, m\u011bli byste myslet na jejich vz\u00e1jemnou korelaci. 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Kdy\u017e u\u017e tedy chcete obchodovat (resp. investovat) na finan\u010dn\u00edch trz\u00edch, m\u011bli byste si promyslet, kolik n\u00e1stroj\u016f vlastn\u011b […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/cs\/proc-byste-si-meli-davat-pozor-na-korelaci-aktiv\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"FTMO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/ftmocom\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-10-04T12:30:36+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-10-09T13:13:23+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Why-you-should-pay-attention-to-asset-correlation-CZ.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2400\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1256\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" 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