{"id":598134,"date":"2023-11-10T14:35:36","date_gmt":"2023-11-10T13:35:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/?p=598134"},"modified":"2024-12-20T17:52:06","modified_gmt":"2024-12-20T16:52:06","slug":"jak-obchodovat-na-trzich-s-nizkou-volatilitou","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/cs\/jak-obchodovat-na-trzich-s-nizkou-volatilitou\/","title":{"rendered":"Jak obchodovat na trz\u00edch s n\u00edzkou volatilitou?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Forexov\u00fd trh je charakteristick\u00fd svou vysokou likviditou a zaj\u00edmavou volatilitou, kter\u00e1 znamen\u00e1 dostatek p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost\u00ed k zaj\u00edmav\u00fdm obchod\u016fm. Na konci roku, a zejm\u00e9na ve druh\u00e9 polovin\u011b prosince, v\u0161ak likvidita na trz\u00edch m\u016f\u017ee klesat a trade\u0159i by se m\u011bli podm\u00ednk\u00e1m na trhu p\u0159im\u011b\u0159en\u011b p\u0159izp\u016fsobit.<\/em><\/p>\n

Forex je nejlikvidn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm trhem na sv\u011bt\u011b, s\u00a0denn\u00edm objemem p\u0159ekra\u010duj\u00edc\u00edm 7 bilion\u016f dolar\u016f. Pr\u00e1v\u011b vysok\u00e1 likvidita ve spojen\u00ed se zaj\u00edmavou volatilitou stoj\u00ed za t\u00edm, \u017ee je dnes trading na forexu tak obl\u00edben\u00fd. V\u00a0pr\u016fb\u011bhu roku se v\u0161ak mohou vyskytovat obdob\u00ed, kdy likvidita na trz\u00edch kles\u00e1, co\u017e m\u00e1 vliv na volatilitu.<\/p>\n

Vysok\u00e1 volatilita nen\u00ed pro ka\u017ed\u00e9ho<\/h2>\n

Pro v\u011bt\u0161inu klasick\u00fdch investor\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed investuj\u00ed sv\u00e9 pen\u00edze na del\u0161\u00ed dobu do akci\u00ed nebo fond\u016f a ETF, nen\u00ed vysok\u00e1 volatilita \u017e\u00e1douc\u00ed. Jde jim p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm o stabiln\u00ed dlouhodob\u00fd v\u00fdnos a obdob\u00ed s vysok\u00fdmi v\u00fdkyvy p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00ed na trhy akor\u00e1t nervozitu. Kr\u00e1tkodob\u00ed trade\u0159i naopak volatilitu vyu\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed ve sv\u016fj prosp\u011bch, proto\u017ee pr\u00e1v\u011b kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9 v\u00fdkyvy v kombinaci s p\u00e1kov\u00fdm efektem jim zaji\u0161\u0165uj\u00ed p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti k dosa\u017een\u00ed zaj\u00edmav\u00fdch v\u00fdnos\u016f i p\u0159i kr\u00e1tce trvaj\u00edc\u00edch obchodech.<\/p>\n

Sez\u00f3nn\u00ed vlivy<\/h2>\n

Na finan\u010dn\u00edch trz\u00edch jsme v pr\u016fb\u011bhu roku sv\u011bdky r\u016fzn\u00fdch sez\u00f3nn\u00edch vliv\u016f, kdy doch\u00e1z\u00ed k r\u016fstu nebo poklesu likvidity. Na akciov\u00fdch trz\u00edch existuje obl\u00edben\u00e9 pravidlo \u201eSell in May and Go Away\u201c, kter\u00e1 \u00fazce souvis\u00ed s dovolenkovou sezonou. \u0158\u00edjen je na akci\u00edch jeden z nejvolatiln\u011bj\u0161\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f a n\u011bkdy se tak\u00e9 zmi\u0148uje Santa Claus rally nebo tzv. lednov\u00fd efekt, kdy ceny akci\u00ed zvyknou r\u016fst.<\/p>\n

U komodit je tento efekt je\u0161t\u011b v\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. U ropy<\/a> a zemn\u00edho plynu<\/a> se zvyknou objevovat nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pohyby na podzim, kdy se trhy p\u0159ipravuj\u00ed na zimn\u00ed sez\u00f3nu. Ceny obilovin vykazuj\u00ed tak\u00e9 sez\u00f3nn\u00ed vlivy, kdy p\u0159ed l\u00e9tem jejich cena v\u00fdrazn\u011b kles\u00e1.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Nejm\u00e9n\u011b patrn\u00e9 jsou sez\u00f3nn\u00ed vlivy na forexu, proto\u017ee d\u011bn\u00ed na m\u011bnov\u00e9m trhu sp\u00ed\u0161e ovliv\u0148uj\u00ed centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky a jejich monet\u00e1rn\u00ed politika, kter\u00e1 je zase ovliv\u0148ov\u00e1na inflac\u00ed, trhem pr\u00e1ce nebo v\u00fdvojem HDP apod. I zde v\u0161ak m\u016f\u017eeme naj\u00edt n\u011bkolik p\u0159\u00edklad\u016f.<\/p>\n

Na p\u00e1ru USDCAD m\u016f\u017eeme vn\u00edmat sez\u00f3nnost v dob\u011b od \u00fanora do dubna, kdy se mnohem v\u00edce da\u0159\u00ed kanadsk\u00e9mu dolaru. Tato m\u011bna je pom\u011brn\u011b siln\u011b spjat\u00e1 s cenou ropy, jej\u00ed\u017e cena ve zmi\u0148ovan\u00fdch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch roste, co\u017e m\u00e1 vliv na p\u00e1r USDCAD. Dal\u0161\u00ed \u201ekomoditn\u00ed\u201c m\u011bna, kterou je australsk\u00fd dolar, pak m\u016f\u017ee reagovat na cykly u zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00fdch komodit nebo zm\u011bn\u011b v popt\u00e1vce po nerostn\u00fdch surovin\u00e1ch.<\/p>\n

Na p\u00e1ru USDJPY je zaj\u00edmav\u00fdm m\u011bs\u00edcem \u0159\u00edjen, kdy se v dlouhodob\u00e9m horizontu da\u0159\u00ed dolaru. Vliv ur\u010dit\u00e9ho faktoru sice nelze jednozna\u010dn\u011b ur\u010dit, ale v tomto obdob\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161inou roste chu\u0165 investor\u016f k riziku, co\u017e se projevuje tak\u00e9 na akciov\u00fdch trz\u00edch. Popt\u00e1vka po bezpe\u010dn\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edstavech, jako je japonsk\u00fd jen, se tak sni\u017euje (co\u017e se projevuje tak\u00e9 na cen\u011b zlata).<\/p>\n

Prosinec \u2013 n\u00edzk\u00e1 likvidita a m\u00e1lo trend\u016f<\/h2>\n

Specifick\u00fdm obdob\u00edm pro forex je prosinec. Zejm\u00e9na jeho druh\u00e1 polovina je pro tradery pova\u017eov\u00e1na za v\u00fdzvu (p\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b je\u0161t\u011b za\u010d\u00e1tek ledna). Na trhu zmiz\u00ed likvidita, aktivita velk\u00fdch hr\u00e1\u010d\u016f se v\u00fdrazn\u011b sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed. \u00a0S volatilitou je to trochu slo\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, proto\u017ee n\u00edzk\u00e9 objemy mohou v\u00e9st bu\u010fto k ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed volatilit\u011b, proto\u017ee na trz\u00edch se zkr\u00e1tka neobchoduje nebo k vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed volatilit\u011b, proto\u017ee na trhu nen\u00ed dostatek objedn\u00e1vek p\u0159i ur\u010dit\u00e9 cen\u011b.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Hlavn\u00edm d\u016fvodem jsou samoz\u0159ejm\u011b v\u00e1no\u010dn\u00ed sv\u00e1tky. Jedn\u00edm z d\u016fvod\u016f v\u0161ak m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt i skute\u010dnost, \u017ee trade\u0159i ve velk\u00fdch instituc\u00edch zaji\u0161\u0165uj\u00edc\u00edch hlavn\u00ed likviditu na trz\u00edch, jako jsou banky nebo hedge fondy, maj\u00ed vyplacen\u00e9 bonusy a o d\u011bn\u00ed na trz\u00edch nemaj\u00ed z\u00e1jem. Prosincov\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky zkr\u00e1tka na jejich v\u00fdplatn\u00ed p\u00e1sku nemaj\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd vliv, tak\u017ee se nemus\u00ed obt\u011b\u017eovat.<\/p>\n

Chyb\u011bj\u00edc\u00ed likvidita vede k tomu, \u017ee pokud se neobjev\u00ed n\u011bjak\u00fd v\u00fdznamn\u00fd fundament, denn\u00ed pohyby na jednotliv\u00fdch p\u00e1rech jsou bu\u010fto v\u00fdrazn\u011b pod dlouhodob\u00fdm pr\u016fm\u011brem, nebo se na nich objevuj\u00ed ne\u010dekan\u00e9 v\u00fdkyvy. Pro n\u011bkter\u00e9 retailov\u00e9 obchodn\u00edky m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt probl\u00e9m i to, \u017ee jejich broker v t\u00e9to dob\u011b um\u011ble roz\u0161i\u0159uje spready (kdy\u017e nevyd\u011bl\u00e1 na ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed aktivit\u011b trader\u016f, chce vyd\u011blat alespo\u0148 na spreadech).<\/p>\n

Trade\u0159i obchoduj\u00edc\u00ed trendy v tomto obdob\u00ed jen st\u011b\u017e\u00ed najdou zaj\u00edmavou p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost ke vstupu do trhu. Dlouhodob\u00e9 trendov\u00e9 pohyby se zaj\u00edmav\u00fdmi konsolidacemi ke vstupu se na trhu prakticky neobjevuj\u00ed. Mnoh\u00e9 automatick\u00e9 obchod\u00ed syst\u00e9my v tomto obdob\u00ed tak\u00e9 zaznamen\u00e1vaj\u00ed s\u00e9rii ztr\u00e1tov\u00fdch obchod\u016f. Neznamen\u00e1 to v\u0161ak, \u017ee by se v\u00a0tomto obdob\u00ed nedalo obchodovat v\u016fbec.<\/p>\n

Scalping nebo odpo\u010dinek<\/h2>\n

P\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti tak nab\u00edz\u00ed pouze zmi\u0148ovan\u00e9 volatiln\u00ed pohyby, tak\u017ee toto obdob\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 zejm\u00e9na pro scalpery<\/a>, pro kter\u00e9 je riziko denn\u00edm chlebem.\u00a0 Na sv\u00e9 si mohou p\u0159ij\u00edt tak\u00e9 trade\u0159i obchoduj\u00edc\u00ed cenov\u00e1 p\u00e1sma, pozor si ale mus\u00ed d\u00e1vat na fale\u0161n\u00e1 prolomen\u00ed support\u016f a rezistenc\u00ed.<\/p>\n

V\u00a0ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b je nutn\u00e9 b\u00fdt v\u00a0dob\u011b ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed volatility trp\u011bliv\u00fd a striktn\u011b dodr\u017eovat pravidla risk managementu a money managementu. Je dobr\u00e9 obchodovat na ni\u017e\u0161\u00edch timeframech, sn\u00ed\u017eit velikost pozic a p\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b tak\u00e9 obchodovat s\u00a0ni\u017e\u0161\u00edm RRR<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Jednou z mo\u017enost\u00ed, kterou ale b\u011b\u017en\u00fd retailov\u00ed investo\u0159i b\u011b\u017en\u011b nevyu\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed, jsou tzv. Carry trades<\/a>, kdy obchodn\u00edk otev\u00edr\u00e1 long pozici na m\u011bn\u011b s\u00a0vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm \u00faro\u010den\u00edm proti m\u011bn\u011b s\u00a0ni\u017e\u0161\u00edm \u00faro\u010den\u00edm. I retailov\u00ed swingov\u00ed obchodn\u00edci mohou vyd\u011blat na dr\u017een\u00ed dlouh\u00e9 pozice nap\u0159\u00edklad na p\u00e1rech GBPJPY nebo USDJPY<\/a>, kdy se jim p\u0159i dr\u017een\u00ed obchodu p\u0159es noc p\u0159i\u010dte swap, kter\u00fd p\u0159edstavuje na ka\u017ed\u00fd lot bezm\u00e1la 10 bod\u016f. Je ale pot\u0159eba myslet na to, \u017ee v\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed pohyby proti jejich pozici mohou znamenat v\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ztr\u00e1ty.<\/p>\n

I ti, kte\u0159\u00ed se rozhodnou neobchodovat, v\u0161ak nemus\u00ed p\u0159ij\u00edt zkr\u00e1tka. Obdob\u00ed bez obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee trader vyu\u017e\u00edt nap\u0159\u00edklad k backtestov\u00e1n\u00ed nov\u00fdch strategi\u00ed, p\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b k anal\u00fdze minul\u00fdch obchod\u016f a lad\u011bn\u00ed sv\u00e9 strategie, aby byla v budoucnu v\u00fdnosn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n

I samotn\u00fd odpo\u010dinek od trh\u016f ale m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt pro mnoh\u00e9 tradery t\u00edm spr\u00e1vn\u00fdm \u0159e\u0161en\u00edm. Kdy\u017e m\u00e1 n\u011bkdo \u0161patnou s\u00e9rii nebo del\u0161\u00ed ztr\u00e1tov\u00e9 obdob\u00ed, m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt pauza od obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed tou nejlep\u0161\u00ed psychologickou vzpruhou. Trading je hlavn\u011b o psychologii a ka\u017ed\u00e1 pauza, i kdy\u017e m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt pro n\u011bkoho vynucen\u00e1, m\u016f\u017ee traderovi pomoci si srovnat my\u0161lenky, dob\u00edt baterky a za\u010d\u00edt nov\u00fd rok s \u010dist\u00fdm \u0161t\u00edtem.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Forexov\u00fd trh je charakteristick\u00fd svou vysokou likviditou a zaj\u00edmavou volatilitou, kter\u00e1 znamen\u00e1 dostatek p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost\u00ed k zaj\u00edmav\u00fdm obchod\u016fm. Na konci roku, a zejm\u00e9na ve druh\u00e9 polovin\u011b prosince, v\u0161ak likvidita na trz\u00edch m\u016f\u017ee klesat a trade\u0159i by se m\u011bli podm\u00ednk\u00e1m na trhu p\u0159im\u011b\u0159en\u011b p\u0159izp\u016fsobit. Forex je nejlikvidn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm trhem na sv\u011bt\u011b, s\u00a0denn\u00edm objemem p\u0159ekra\u010duj\u00edc\u00edm 7 bilion\u016f dolar\u016f. Pr\u00e1v\u011b […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":44,"featured_media":598228,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[88909],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-598134","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-rady-a-tipy"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nJak obchodovat na trz\u00edch s n\u00edzkou volatilitou? | FTMO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Na konci roku m\u016f\u017ee likvidita na trz\u00edch klesat a trade\u0159i by se m\u011bli podm\u00ednk\u00e1m na trhu p\u0159im\u011b\u0159en\u011b p\u0159izp\u016fsobit.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/cs\/jak-obchodovat-na-trzich-s-nizkou-volatilitou\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"cs_CZ\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Jak obchodovat na trz\u00edch s n\u00edzkou volatilitou?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Na konci roku m\u016f\u017ee likvidita na trz\u00edch klesat a trade\u0159i by se m\u011bli podm\u00ednk\u00e1m na trhu p\u0159im\u011b\u0159en\u011b p\u0159izp\u016fsobit.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/cs\/jak-obchodovat-na-trzich-s-nizkou-volatilitou\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"FTMO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/ftmocom\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-11-10T13:35:36+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-12-20T16:52:06+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/How-to-trade-in-low-volatility-markets_-CZ.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2400\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1256\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/cs\/jak-obchodovat-na-trzich-s-nizkou-volatilitou\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/cs\/jak-obchodovat-na-trzich-s-nizkou-volatilitou\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Daniel Kuchta\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/cs\/#\/schema\/person\/e19858442faa4d101a51094cfe2317bf\"},\"headline\":\"Jak obchodovat na trz\u00edch s n\u00edzkou volatilitou?\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-11-10T13:35:36+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-12-20T16:52:06+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/cs\/jak-obchodovat-na-trzich-s-nizkou-volatilitou\/\"},\"wordCount\":1281,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/cs\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/cs\/jak-obchodovat-na-trzich-s-nizkou-volatilitou\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/How-to-trade-in-low-volatility-markets_-CZ.jpg\",\"articleSection\":[\"Rady a tipy\"],\"inLanguage\":\"cs\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/cs\/jak-obchodovat-na-trzich-s-nizkou-volatilitou\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/cs\/jak-obchodovat-na-trzich-s-nizkou-volatilitou\/\",\"name\":\"Jak obchodovat na trz\u00edch s n\u00edzkou volatilitou? 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