{"id":541952,"date":"2023-01-06T13:30:21","date_gmt":"2023-01-06T12:30:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/?p=541952"},"modified":"2023-09-14T08:28:03","modified_gmt":"2023-09-14T06:28:03","slug":"na-co-se-pripravit-v-roce-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/cs\/na-co-se-pripravit-v-roce-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"Na co se p\u0159ipravit v roce 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>D\u011blat p\u0159edpov\u011bdi na cel\u00fd rok je st\u00e1le spojeno s nejist\u00fdm v\u00fdsledkem, proto\u017ee nikdo nem\u016f\u017ee p\u0159edv\u00eddat budoucnost. Tento rok je nav\u00edc specifick\u00fd v tom, \u017ee d\u011bn\u00ed na trz\u00edch pom\u011brn\u011b v\u00fdrazn\u011b ovliv\u0148uj\u00ed faktory, na kter\u00e9 nen\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161ina investor\u016f a analytik\u016f v\u016fbec zvykl\u00e1. Na co bychom se tedy letos m\u011bli p\u0159ipravit?<\/em><\/p>\n<p>P\u0159elom let je ide\u00e1ln\u00ed dobou na bilancov\u00e1n\u00ed uplynul\u00e9ho roku a predikce na ten n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed. Letos je mo\u017enost n\u011bjak\u00fdch p\u0159esn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch odhad\u016f je\u0161t\u011b slo\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e jindy, ani to v\u0161ak n\u011bkter\u00e9 analytiky neodrad\u00ed od optimistick\u00fdch predikc\u00ed. Optimismus v\u0161ak nen\u00ed v\u017edy dobr\u00fdm v\u00fdchodiskov\u00fdm bodem p\u0159i tvorb\u011b kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fdch ani dlouhodob\u00fdch predikc\u00ed na finan\u010dn\u00edch trz\u00edch a leto\u0161n\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed nejistota by mohla v\u00e9st ke st\u0159\u00edzliv\u011bj\u0161\u00edm predikc\u00edm na p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok.<\/p>\n<h2>Pozor na analytiky<\/h2>\n<p>V prvn\u00ed \u0159ad\u011b bychom m\u011bli pamatovat na to, \u017ee d\u011bn\u00ed na trz\u00edch je pom\u011brn\u011b v\u00fdrazn\u011b ovliv\u0148ov\u00e1no o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00edmi. Definovat sv\u00e1 o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed podle p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed analytik\u016f je v\u0161ak jednou z nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch chyb, kter\u00fdch bychom se mohli dopustit. Pro p\u0159\u00edklad, kdy pr\u00e1v\u011b optimismus v\u00fdrazn\u011b ovlivnil p\u0159edpov\u011bdi analytik\u016f, nemus\u00edme chodit daleko, sta\u010d\u00ed n\u00e1m za\u010d\u00e1tek minul\u00e9ho roku. Po t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 dvoulet\u00e9m siln\u00e9m r\u016fstu akci\u00ed po pandemii Covidu se \u010dekal (jak jinak) dal\u0161\u00ed r\u016fst. Index S&amp;P 500 v\u0161ak prakticky od za\u010d\u00e1tku roku klesal a zaznamenal nejhor\u0161\u00ed propad od finan\u010dn\u00ed krize.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">Here\u2019s where the sharpest brains on Wall Street predicted the S&amp;P 500 would end 2022:<\/p>\n<p>BMO &#8211; 5,300<br \/>\nWells Fargo &#8211; 5,200<br \/>\nGoldman Sachs &#8211; 5,100<br \/>\nJP Morgan &#8211; 5,050<\/p>\n<p>Today it\u2019s 3,854 &#8211; not one of them came close.<\/p>\n<p>Pay zero attention to next year\u2019s predictions.<\/p>\n<p>No one\u2019s got a clue.<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Alan Smith (@AlanJLSmith) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/AlanJLSmith\/status\/1608757345076527104?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 30, 2022<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>I na konci roku 2022 pak v\u011bt\u0161ina analytik\u016f o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 na dal\u0161\u00ed rok r\u016fst na akciov\u00fdch trz\u00edch, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed z\u00a0nich\u017e jsou skute\u010dn\u00ed nenapraviteln\u00ed optimisti.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">After missing big last year (-22%), Wall Street&#8217;s &#8222;Top Strategists&#8220; are back again and have given their outlook for 2023. Do you agree?<\/p>\n<p>What&#8217;s your S&amp;P 500 prediction this year?<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24SPY&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$SPY<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/SP500?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#SP500<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Stocks?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Stocks<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Investing?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Investing<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/StockMarket?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#StockMarket<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/eSbK8EfaxO\">pic.twitter.com\/eSbK8EfaxO<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 \ud83d\udcc8 SA Justin \ud83d\udcc8 (@JGInvestments1) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/JGInvestments1\/status\/1610848567375044610?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">January 5, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2>Inflace<\/h2>\n<p>Snad nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm stra\u0161\u00e1kem, kter\u00fd ned\u011bs\u00ed pouze ekonomy a investory, ale tak\u00e9 b\u011b\u017en\u00e9 lidi, je vysok\u00e1 inflace. V\u011bt\u0161ina centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank loni musela v r\u00e1mci boje s inflac\u00ed p\u0159istoupit ke zp\u0159\u00eds\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed m\u011bnov\u00e9 politiky tempem dlouho nev\u00eddan\u00fdm. Na konci roku to zat\u00edm vypad\u00e1, \u017ee inflace v pr\u016fb\u011bhu minul\u00e9ho roku dos\u00e1hla ve v\u011bt\u0161in\u011b rozvinut\u00fdch ekonomik sv\u00e9ho maxima. Opatrn\u00fd optimismus je v tomto sm\u011bru mo\u017en\u00e1 na m\u00edst\u011b, ale samotn\u00ed centr\u00e1ln\u00ed bank\u00e9\u0159i upozor\u0148uj\u00ed, \u017ee v\u00e1lka s inflac\u00ed je\u0161t\u011b nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt u konce.<\/p>\n<h2>\u00darokov\u00e9 sazby<\/h2>\n<p>Velk\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st \u00fa\u010dastn\u00edk\u016f trhu dnes toti\u017e automaticky o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 zpomalen\u00ed utahov\u00e1n\u00ed m\u011bnov\u00e9 politiky ze strany centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank, ale to by nemuselo dopadnout dob\u0159e. P\u0159\u00edli\u0161 rychl\u00e9 uvoln\u011bn\u00ed by mohlo znemo\u017enit snahu o dosa\u017een\u00ed cenov\u00e9 stability.<\/p>\n<h2>Recese<\/h2>\n<p>Centr\u00e1ln\u00ed bank\u00e9\u0159i dnes kv\u016fli tomu \u0159e\u0161\u00ed dilema, jestli bojovat s inflac\u00ed za ka\u017edou cenu a zvy\u0161ovat sazby, co\u017e by ale mohlo v\u00e9st a\u017e k recesi, o n\u00ed\u017e se tak\u00e9 u\u017e n\u011bjak\u00fd \u010das mluv\u00ed. Objevuj\u00ed se sice hlasy, \u017ee leto\u0161n\u00ed recese je d\u00e1vno predikovan\u00e1 a o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e1, tak\u017ee se j\u00ed nakonec mo\u017en\u00e1 v\u016fbec nedo\u010dk\u00e1me, ale to jsou mo\u017en\u00e1 jen zbo\u017en\u00e1 p\u0159\u00e1n\u00ed optimist\u016f. Ve skute\u010dnosti u\u017e USA zaznamenaly dva po sob\u011b jdouc\u00ed \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed s negativn\u00edm r\u016fstem HDP, tak\u017ee v recesi u\u017e technicky byly.<\/p>\n<h2>Trh pr\u00e1ce<\/h2>\n<p>Trochu proti proudu jde u\u017e dlouhodob\u011b trh pr\u00e1ce, kter\u00fd st\u00e1le vykazuje pom\u011brn\u011b siln\u00e1 \u010d\u00edsla nad o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed analytik\u016f, a to jak v\u00a0po\u010dtu voln\u00fdch pracovn\u00edch m\u00edst, kter\u00fdch je st\u00e1le pom\u011brn\u011b hodn\u011b, tak i v\u00a0po\u010dtu \u017e\u00e1dost\u00ed o podporu v\u00a0nezam\u011bstnanosti, kter\u00fdch je zase st\u00e1le pom\u011brn\u011b m\u00e1lo. I to komplikuje situaci centr\u00e1ln\u00edm bank\u00e9\u0159\u016fm, kte\u0159\u00ed si st\u00e1le nejsou jisti, jestli inflace je\u0161t\u011b ne\u0159ekla posledn\u00ed slovo, anebo jsou siln\u00e1 data z\u00a0trhu pr\u00e1ce jen do\u010desn\u00fdm jevem.<\/p>\n<h2>\u010c\u00edna<\/h2>\n<p>Velkou nezn\u00e1mou m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt letos tak\u00e9 v\u00fdvoj v \u010c\u00edn\u011b. Ta sice ukon\u010duje svou politiku nulov\u00e9 tolerance v\u016f\u010di nemoci Covid-19, ale to je\u0161t\u011b nemus\u00ed znamenat, \u017ee se ekonomika zem\u011b rychle vzpamatuje a \u017ee to bude m\u00edt i okam\u017eit\u00fd pozitivn\u00ed vliv i v glob\u00e1ln\u00edm m\u011b\u0159\u00edtku. \u010c\u00edna m\u00e1 p\u0159ed sebou hodn\u011b v\u00fdzev a zejm\u00e9na za\u010d\u00e1tek roku bude sp\u00ed\u0161e ve znamen\u00ed chaosu ne\u017e ekonomick\u00e9ho r\u016fstu. U\u017e jen to, \u017ee vl\u00e1da v zemi ukon\u010dila politiku nulov\u00e9 tolerance v\u016f\u010di Covidu tak n\u00e1hle ukazuje, \u017ee zem\u011b nen\u00ed moc dob\u0159e p\u0159ipravena se s Covidem definitivn\u011b vypo\u0159\u00e1dat. Pokud se kone\u010dn\u011b nepoda\u0159\u00ed zah\u00e1jit z\u00e1sadn\u00ed a dlouho odkl\u00e1dan\u00e9 struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed reformy, m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt v\u00fdvoj ve druh\u00e9 nejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ekonomice sv\u011bta zklam\u00e1n\u00edm.<\/p>\n<h2>V\u00e1lka na Ukrajin\u011b<\/h2>\n<p>Nezanedbateln\u00fd vliv na ekonomick\u00fd v\u00fdvoj ve sv\u011bt\u011b bude m\u00edt st\u00e1le v\u00e1lka na Ukrajin\u011b, jej\u00ed\u017e konec je st\u00e1le sp\u00ed\u0161e v\u00a0nedohlednu. Krom\u011b toho, \u017ee jde o humanit\u00e1rn\u00ed katastrofu, m\u00e1 v\u00e1lka vliv zejm\u00e9na na trhy s\u00a0komoditami. Nejv\u00fdrazn\u011bji je zasa\u017een trh se zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00fdmi komoditami, ale sankce v\u016f\u010di Rusku maj\u00ed vliv tak\u00e9 na trh s\u00a0ropou a zejm\u00e9na se zemn\u00edm plynem, jeho\u017e cena m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt i v\u00a0pr\u016fb\u011bhu p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edho roku volatiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e je b\u011b\u017en\u00e9.<\/p>\n<p>A\u0165 u\u017e se na nov\u00fd rok budeme p\u0159ipravovat jakkoli zodpov\u011bdn\u011b a budeme se pokou\u0161et zahrnout do na\u0161ich p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed v\u0161echny v\u00edce \u010di m\u00e9n\u011b pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9 sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e, mus\u00edme po\u010d\u00edtat s\u00a0t\u00edm, \u017ee se v\u00a0pr\u016fb\u011bhu roku objev\u00ed n\u011bco, s\u00a0\u010d\u00edm nikdo nepo\u010d\u00edtal. St\u00e1le v\u0161ak plat\u00ed, \u017ee kdy\u017e je investor, resp. trader p\u0159ipraven na v\u0161echno a je psychicky odoln\u00fd, m\u016f\u017ee zvl\u00e1dnout bez \u00fahony i ta nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed p\u0159ekvapen\u00ed. D\u016fle\u017eit\u00e1 pravidla ochrany kapit\u00e1lu a \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed rizika funguj\u00ed za ka\u017ed\u00fdch podm\u00ednek, na to nesm\u00edme zapom\u00ednat.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>D\u011blat p\u0159edpov\u011bdi na cel\u00fd rok je st\u00e1le spojeno s nejist\u00fdm v\u00fdsledkem, proto\u017ee nikdo nem\u016f\u017ee p\u0159edv\u00eddat budoucnost. Tento rok je nav\u00edc specifick\u00fd v tom, \u017ee d\u011bn\u00ed na trz\u00edch pom\u011brn\u011b v\u00fdrazn\u011b ovliv\u0148uj\u00ed faktory, na kter\u00e9 nen\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161ina investor\u016f a analytik\u016f v\u016fbec zvykl\u00e1. Na co bychom se tedy letos m\u011bli p\u0159ipravit? P\u0159elom let je ide\u00e1ln\u00ed dobou na bilancov\u00e1n\u00ed [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":44,"featured_media":542050,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[88909],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-541952","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-rady-a-tipy"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.1 (Yoast SEO v24.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Na co se p\u0159ipravit v roce 2023 | FTMO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/cs\/na-co-se-pripravit-v-roce-2023\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"cs_CZ\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Na co se p\u0159ipravit v roce 2023\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"D\u011blat p\u0159edpov\u011bdi na cel\u00fd rok je st\u00e1le spojeno s nejist\u00fdm v\u00fdsledkem, proto\u017ee nikdo nem\u016f\u017ee p\u0159edv\u00eddat budoucnost. Tento rok je nav\u00edc specifick\u00fd v tom, \u017ee d\u011bn\u00ed na trz\u00edch pom\u011brn\u011b v\u00fdrazn\u011b ovliv\u0148uj\u00ed faktory, na kter\u00e9 nen\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161ina investor\u016f a analytik\u016f v\u016fbec zvykl\u00e1. Na co bychom se tedy letos m\u011bli p\u0159ipravit? 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