{"id":535637,"date":"2022-09-09T13:00:06","date_gmt":"2022-09-09T11:00:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/?p=535637"},"modified":"2022-11-10T23:26:04","modified_gmt":"2022-11-10T22:26:04","slug":"ropa-fosilni-palivo-ale-take-nejobchodovanejsi-komodita","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/cs\/ropa-fosilni-palivo-ale-take-nejobchodovanejsi-komodita\/","title":{"rendered":"Ropa: fosiln\u00ed palivo, ale tak\u00e9 nejobchodovan\u011bj\u0161\u00ed komodita"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ropa pat\u0159\u00ed mezi nejobchodovan\u011bj\u0161\u00ed komodity. Jej\u00ed vliv na sv\u011btov\u00fd obchod a pom\u011brn\u011b volatiln\u00ed cenov\u00fd v\u00fdvoj zvy\u0161uje jej\u00ed atraktivitu mezi obchodn\u00edky a spekulanty na komoditn\u00edch trz\u00edch. A v\u00fdvoj na trhu s\u00a0ropou v\u00a0posledn\u00ed dob\u011b je d\u016fkazem toho, \u017ee ropa jako investi\u010dn\u00ed n\u00e1stroj m\u00e1 st\u00e1le velk\u00fd potenci\u00e1l.<\/em><\/p>\n

P\u0159esto\u017ee v\u00a0posledn\u00edch letech s\u00edl\u00ed tlak na v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed \u010dist\u00fdch a obnoviteln\u00fdch forem energie a vliv zelen\u00e9 politiky na energetick\u00fd sektor st\u00e1le roste, ropa st\u00e1le pat\u0159\u00ed mezi nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed energetick\u00e9 komodity. V\u00fdvoj v\u00a0posledn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch nav\u00edc ukazuje, \u017ee ropa a jej\u00ed cena m\u00e1 st\u00e1le pom\u011brn\u011b v\u00fdrazn\u00fd vliv na glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomickou, ale i politickou situaci.<\/p>\n

V\u00fdznam fosiln\u00edch paliv, mezi n\u011b\u017e ropa pat\u0159\u00ed, za\u010dal rychle r\u016fst a\u017e s\u00a0rozmachem pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 revoluce. Samotn\u00e1 ropa se stala nejv\u00fdznamn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm fosiln\u00edm palivem a\u017e ve druh\u00e9 polovin\u011b 20. stolet\u00ed, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e jej\u00ed cena byla po dlouhou dobu pom\u011brn\u011b stabiln\u00ed. A\u017e ropn\u00e9 \u0161oky v\u00a0sedmdes\u00e1t\u00fdch letech vedly k\u00a0tomu, \u017ee ropa se stala komoditou ovliv\u0148uj\u00edc\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9 a \u010dasto tak\u00e9 politick\u00e9 d\u011bn\u00ed v\u00a0glob\u00e1ln\u00edm m\u011b\u0159\u00edtku. Toto strategick\u00e9 postaven\u00ed si ropa jako jedna z\u00a0nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edch energetick\u00fdch komodit (dnes spole\u010dn\u011b se zemn\u00edm plynem) udr\u017euje dodnes.<\/p>\n

Ropn\u00e9 \u0161oky a futures<\/h2>\n

Pr\u00e1v\u011b ropn\u00e9 \u0161oky, kter\u00e9 zp\u016fsobily velk\u00e9 v\u00fdkyvy ceny ropy v d\u016fsledku politick\u00fdch kriz\u00ed, vedly k tomu, \u017ee v roce 1983 byly na komoditn\u00edch burz\u00e1ch CBOT a NYMEX v USA p\u0159edstaveny prvn\u00ed futures kontrakty na ropu. Do t\u00e9 doby se ropa obchodovala za tzv. spot cenu, tedy za aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed cenu na trhu s kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fdm dod\u00e1n\u00edm. Obchodn\u00edci a zpracovatel\u00e9 ropy ale pot\u0159ebovali omezovat riziko n\u00e1hl\u00fdch cenov\u00fdch \u0161ok\u016f, a futures kontrakty s dlouhou dobou dod\u00e1n\u00ed jim umo\u017e\u0148ovaly zajistit si cenu ropy v po\u017eadovan\u00e9 v\u00fd\u0161i bez rizika v\u00fdkyv\u016f v budoucnu.<\/p>\n

Futures kontrakty se staly postupem \u010dasu jedn\u00edm z hlavn\u00edch ukazatel\u016f ur\u010duj\u00edc\u00edch cenu na trhu s ropou a krom\u011b zaji\u0161\u0165uj\u00edc\u00edch operac\u00ed pln\u00ed tak\u00e9 \u00falohu velmi obl\u00edben\u00fdch n\u00e1stroj\u016f pro spekulanty a kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9 obchodn\u00edky.<\/p>\n

D\u016fle\u017eit\u00e1 je hustota a obsah s\u00edry<\/h2>\n

Na trhu s ropou dnes existuje n\u011bkolik des\u00edtek druh\u016f. Jejich cena se li\u0161\u00ed podle toho, ze kter\u00e9 oblasti ropa poch\u00e1z\u00ed a jak\u00e1 je jej\u00ed kvalita, ale mohou j\u00ed ovliv\u0148ovat i jin\u00e9 faktory, jako je cena p\u0159epravy apod. Z hlediska kvality se na cen\u011b projevuje zejm\u00e9na hustota ropy a obsah s\u00edry. Hustota ropy se m\u011b\u0159\u00ed prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm hmotnostn\u00ed jednotky API, a \u010d\u00edm je ropa leh\u010d\u00ed, t\u00edm je l\u00e9pe zpracovateln\u00e1 a t\u00edm p\u00e1dem m\u00e1 v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed hodnotu. Obsah s\u00edry se m\u011b\u0159\u00ed jako procento z celkov\u00e9 hmotnosti, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e ropa s n\u00edzk\u00fdm obsahem s\u00edry (m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e 0,5 %) je ozna\u010dovan\u00e1 jako sladk\u00e1 a ropa s vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm obsahem s\u00edry (v\u00edce ne\u017e 1 %) je ozna\u010dov\u00e1na jako kysel\u00e1. I zde plat\u00ed, \u017ee sladk\u00e1 ropa je l\u00e9pe zpracovateln\u00e1 a je dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Hlavn\u00edmi ropn\u00fdmi produkty, od nich\u017e se odv\u00edj\u00ed cena ropy na sv\u011btov\u00fdch trz\u00edch, a kter\u00e9 ovliv\u0148uj\u00ed tak\u00e9 cenu ostatn\u00edch druh\u016f ropy, jsou Brent a WTI. Krom\u011b t\u011bchto dvou druh\u016f ropy se pom\u011brn\u011b \u010dasto sleduje Dubajsk\u00e1 ropa, zn\u00e1m\u00e1 jako Fateh (t\u011b\u017ek\u00e1 kysel\u00e1 ropa), OPEC Reference Basket (mix t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 a lehk\u00e9 ropy vyprodukovan\u00e9 v\u00a0\u010dlensk\u00fdch zem\u00edch organizace OPEC), nebo kanadsk\u00e1 Edmonton Par (lehk\u00e1 sladk\u00e1 ropa) a Western Canadian Select (t\u011b\u017ek\u00e1 kysel\u00e1 ropa).<\/p>\n

Mimochodem, obchodn\u00edci, kte\u0159\u00ed vyu\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed slu\u017eeb FTMO, mohou obchodovat s\u00a0ropou prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm CFD kontrakt\u016f nav\u00e1zan\u00fdch na oba zmi\u0148ovan\u00e9 druhy ropy, tedy Brent (n\u00e1stroj s\u00a0n\u00e1zvem UKOIL.cash) i WTI (USOIL.cash).<\/p>\n

Brent jako hlavn\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00fd benchmark<\/h2>\n

Severomo\u0159sk\u00e1 ropa Brent se t\u011b\u017e\u00ed na n\u011bkolika m\u00edstech v severn\u00edm mo\u0159i, jeho\u017e hlavn\u00edm dodac\u00edm m\u00edstem je termin\u00e1l v z\u00e1toce Sullom Voe, kter\u00fd le\u017e\u00ed v oblasti Shetlandsk\u00fdch ostrov\u016f. Jde o lehkou a sladkou ropu, kter\u00e1 se dnes t\u011b\u017e\u00ed zejm\u00e9na na ropn\u00fdch pol\u00edch Forties, Oseberg, Ekofisk aTroll (produkce na poli Brent, podle n\u011bho\u017e nese n\u00e1zev, a kde se ropa t\u011b\u017eila od roku 1976, klesla v roce 2021 na nulu).<\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e se mluv\u00ed o cen\u011b ropy Brent, mysl\u00ed se cena futures kontraktu Brent Crude Oil obchodovan\u00e9m na burze ICE (Intercontinental Exchange). S futures kontrakty na Brent se obchoduje tak\u00e9 na burze NYMEX, ale cena se odv\u00edj\u00ed od kontrakt\u016f obchodovan\u00fdch na burze ICE. Brent se pova\u017euje za z\u00e1kladn\u00ed benchmark pro obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed s ropou v Evrop\u011b a v Africe, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b jsou na ropu Brent nav\u00e1z\u00e1ny t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 dv\u011b t\u0159etiny v\u0161ech kontrakt\u016f na ropu. Jde tak o nejpou\u017e\u00edvan\u011bj\u0161\u00ed benchmark na komoditn\u00edm trhu.<\/p>\n

WTI je kvalitn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, ale levn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed<\/h2>\n

Americk\u00e1 ropa WTI (West Texas Intermediate) se na rozd\u00edl od Brentu net\u011b\u017e\u00ed na jednom ur\u010dit\u00e9m m\u00edst\u011b, ale jde sp\u00ed\u0161e o ropu, pro n\u00ed\u017e je hlavn\u00edm dodac\u00edm m\u00edstem Cushing ve st\u00e1t\u011b Oklahoma. P\u016fvodn\u011b \u0161lo o ropu, kter\u00e1 se t\u011b\u017eila a zpracov\u00e1vala v\u00a0Cushingu v\u00a0Oklahom\u011b a v\u00a0Midlandu ve st\u00e1t\u011b Texas, dnes se za ropu WTI m\u016f\u017ee ozna\u010dovat ropa odkudkoli z\u00a0USA, pokud spl\u0148uje kvalitativn\u00ed po\u017eadavky.<\/p>\n

Podobn\u011b jako u Brentu, i u WTI se cena odv\u00edj\u00ed p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm od futures kontrakt\u016f obchodovan\u00fdch na burze NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange). Jde o velmi lehkou a sladkou ropu, kter\u00e1 je hlavn\u00edm benchamrkem pro obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00a0ropou v\u00a0USA.<\/p>\n

P\u0159esto\u017ee je ropa WTI leh\u010d\u00ed a slad\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e ropa Brent (ob\u011b jsou ale velmi kvalitn\u00ed), jej\u00ed cena je dnes ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed. Historicky byl rozd\u00edl mezi t\u011bmito dv\u011bma druhy ropy minim\u00e1ln\u00ed, kdy ropa WTI byla o 2 -3 USD za barel dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed d\u00edky sv\u00e9 vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed kvalit\u011b i transportn\u00edm n\u00e1klad\u016fm. Po finan\u010dn\u00ed krizi v letech 2007 a\u017e 2008, kdy cena ropy zaznamenala extr\u00e9mn\u00ed n\u00e1r\u016fst a n\u00e1sledn\u00fd p\u00e1d, se cena mezi ropou Brent a WTI v letech 2010 a 2011 za\u010dala vzdalovat. Brent byl mnohem dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed a v roce 2012 dos\u00e1hl spread mezi cenami vrcholu na 26 USD.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Na r\u016fst tohoto rozd\u00edlu m\u011blo vliv n\u011bkolik faktor\u016f, ale za hlavn\u00ed je pova\u017eov\u00e1na zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e1 t\u011b\u017eba dehtov\u00fdch p\u00edsk\u016f v Kanad\u011b a rozmach t\u011b\u017eby ropy prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm hydraulick\u00e9ho \u0161t\u011bpen\u00ed (tzv. frakov\u00e1n\u00ed) v USA. P\u0159ebytky ropy zahltily dopravn\u00ed infrastrukturu, komplikovaly transport ropy a v Cushingu doch\u00e1zelo k rekordn\u00edmu zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed z\u00e1sob. Situace se znormalizovala a\u017e pot\u00e9, co se infrastruktura zlep\u0161ila a z\u00e1soby se vr\u00e1tily k norm\u00e1lu.<\/p>\n

I dnes je ale ropa Brent dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed, co\u017e je d\u00e1no pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b t\u00edm, \u017ee jej\u00ed z\u00e1soby se zten\u010duj\u00ed mnohem rychleji ne\u017e v\u00a0USA. V\u00a0severn\u00ed Americe se nav\u00edc produkce ropy st\u00e1le zvy\u0161uje, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e jej\u00ed transport z\u00a0vnitrozem\u00ed je st\u00e1le pom\u011brn\u011b slo\u017eit\u00fd a drah\u00fd. Brent, kter\u00fd je t\u011b\u017een na mo\u0159i, a jeho\u017e transport je jednodu\u0161\u0161\u00ed, je tak dnes pova\u017eov\u00e1n za d\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a spolehliv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ukazatel ceny ropy.<\/p>\n

Ceny pod nulou<\/h2>\n

\u017de je cena ropy st\u00e1le pom\u011brn\u011b volatiln\u00ed, a i proto pro spekulanty a obchodn\u00edky zaj\u00edmav\u00e1, dokazuje i v\u00fdvoj v\u00a0posledn\u00edch letech. V\u00a0dubnu 2020 se stalo n\u011bco, co si do t\u00e9 doby (a dnes u\u017e v\u016fbec ne) nedok\u00e1zal asi nikdo dob\u0159e p\u0159edstavit, proto\u017ee cena ropy na trz\u00edch v\u00a0jednu chv\u00edli klesla do z\u00e1porn\u00fdch hodnot. Vzhledem k rychl\u00e9mu poklesu popt\u00e1vky po rop\u011b kv\u016fli pandemii nemoci Covid-19 a neshod\u00e1m mezi zem\u011bmi OPEC a Ruskem ohledn\u011b omezen\u00ed produkce ropy, do\u0161lo k\u00a0v\u00fdrazn\u00e9mu p\u0159evisu nab\u00eddky nad popt\u00e1vkou. Nedostate\u010dn\u00e9 skladovac\u00ed kapacity a pomal\u00e9 omezov\u00e1n\u00ed produkce nakonec vedly k\u00a0tomu, \u017ee n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed obchodn\u00edci s\u00a0ropou, kte\u0159\u00ed dr\u017eeli futures kontrakty, byli ochotni zaplatit za to, aby se sv\u00fdch kontrakt\u016f zbavili, proto\u017ee se ob\u00e1vali, \u017ee nebudou schopni komoditu uskladnit.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Dnes cenu ropy ovliv\u0148uje geopolitick\u00e1 nejistota zp\u016fsoben\u00e1 v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdm ta\u017een\u00edm Ruska na Ukrajin\u011b a cena se od b\u0159ezna a\u017e do \u010dervence dr\u017eela nad hranic\u00ed 100 USD za barel. Vysok\u00e1 inflace a s\u00a0n\u00ed spojen\u00fd r\u016fst \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb, spole\u010dn\u011b s\u00a0ekonomick\u00fdm zpomalen\u00edm v\u00a0\u010c\u00edn\u011b, kter\u00e1 st\u00e1le bojuje s\u00a0Covidem, mohou m\u00edt negativn\u00ed dopad na popt\u00e1vku po komodit\u011b, co\u017e pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b vedlo k\u00a0poklesu ceny pod 90 USD za barel. Dal\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdvoj ceny je ale nejist\u00fd, co\u017e pro b\u011b\u017en\u00e9 spot\u0159ebitele nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt dobr\u00e1 zpr\u00e1va. Pro obchodn\u00edky, kte\u0159\u00ed mohou na volatiln\u00ed cen\u011b naj\u00edt zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti, to m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt naopak pozitivn\u00ed impuls.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ropa pat\u0159\u00ed mezi nejobchodovan\u011bj\u0161\u00ed komodity. Jej\u00ed vliv na sv\u011btov\u00fd obchod a pom\u011brn\u011b volatiln\u00ed cenov\u00fd v\u00fdvoj zvy\u0161uje jej\u00ed atraktivitu mezi obchodn\u00edky a spekulanty na komoditn\u00edch trz\u00edch. A v\u00fdvoj na trhu s\u00a0ropou v\u00a0posledn\u00ed dob\u011b je d\u016fkazem toho, \u017ee ropa jako investi\u010dn\u00ed n\u00e1stroj m\u00e1 st\u00e1le velk\u00fd potenci\u00e1l. P\u0159esto\u017ee v\u00a0posledn\u00edch letech s\u00edl\u00ed tlak na v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed \u010dist\u00fdch a obnoviteln\u00fdch […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":44,"featured_media":535730,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[89042],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-535637","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-instrumenty"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nRopa: fosiln\u00ed palivo, ale tak\u00e9 nejobchodovan\u011bj\u0161\u00ed komodita | FTMO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/cs\/ropa-fosilni-palivo-ale-take-nejobchodovanejsi-komodita\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"cs_CZ\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Ropa: fosiln\u00ed palivo, ale tak\u00e9 nejobchodovan\u011bj\u0161\u00ed komodita\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Ropa pat\u0159\u00ed mezi nejobchodovan\u011bj\u0161\u00ed komodity. Jej\u00ed vliv na sv\u011btov\u00fd obchod a pom\u011brn\u011b volatiln\u00ed cenov\u00fd v\u00fdvoj zvy\u0161uje jej\u00ed atraktivitu mezi obchodn\u00edky a spekulanty na komoditn\u00edch trz\u00edch. A v\u00fdvoj na trhu s\u00a0ropou v\u00a0posledn\u00ed dob\u011b je d\u016fkazem toho, \u017ee ropa jako investi\u010dn\u00ed n\u00e1stroj m\u00e1 st\u00e1le velk\u00fd potenci\u00e1l. 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