{"id":529742,"date":"2022-07-15T14:00:25","date_gmt":"2022-07-15T12:00:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/?p=529742"},"modified":"2022-07-15T14:01:39","modified_gmt":"2022-07-15T12:01:39","slug":"ekonomicky-kalendar-jak-maloobchodni-trzby-reflektuji-ekonomickou-aktivitu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/cs\/ekonomicky-kalendar-jak-maloobchodni-trzby-reflektuji-ekonomickou-aktivitu\/","title":{"rendered":"Ekonomick\u00fd kalend\u00e1\u0159 &#8211; jak maloobchodn\u00ed tr\u017eby reflektuj\u00ed ekonomickou aktivitu?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>Maloobchodn\u00ed tr\u017eby pat\u0159\u00ed mezi nejsledovan\u011bj\u0161\u00ed data v\u00a0ekonomick\u00e9m kalend\u00e1\u0159i. Jejich v\u00fdznam pro rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank o \u00farokov\u00fdch sazb\u00e1ch roste s\u00a0t\u00edm, jak chov\u00e1n\u00ed spot\u0159ebitel\u016f ovliv\u0148uje rostouc\u00ed inflace.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Maloobchodn\u00ed tr\u017eby p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed odhad celkov\u00fdch tr\u017eeb v\u00a0maloobchodn\u00edch prodejn\u00e1ch v\u00a0USA (podobn\u00e9 je to i v\u00a0jin\u00fdch zem\u00edch, ale v\u00a0tom \u010dl\u00e1nku budeme mluvit p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm o maloobchodn\u00edch tr\u017eb\u00e1ch v\u00a0nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ekonomice sv\u011bta). Jde o hlavn\u00ed ukazatel spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00fdch v\u00fddaj\u016f tvo\u0159\u00edc\u00edch hlavn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st ekonomick\u00e9 aktivity v\u00a0zemi, tak\u017ee jde o d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fd ukazatel zdrav\u00ed ekonomiky. J\u00e1drov\u00e9 maloobchodn\u00ed tr\u017eby vynech\u00e1vaj\u00ed \u00fadaje o prodej\u00edch automobil\u016f, kter\u00e9 jsou pom\u011brn\u011b volatiln\u00ed a maj\u00ed tendenci zkreslovat v\u00fdsledn\u00e1 \u010d\u00edsla.<\/p>\n<p>\u010c\u00edsla vych\u00e1z\u00ed z\u00a0\u00fa\u010detn\u00edch doklad\u016f, kter\u00e9 poskytuje 5 500 n\u00e1hodn\u011b vybran\u00fdch maloobchodn\u00edch provozoven r\u016fzn\u00fdch velikost\u00ed, rozd\u011blen\u00fdch podle typu obchodn\u00edka, nikoli podle typu zbo\u017e\u00ed. Pat\u0159\u00ed sem maloobchodn\u00ed prodejny, prodejny potravin a nepotravin\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho zbo\u017e\u00ed, prodejny se sm\u00ed\u0161en\u00fdm zbo\u017e\u00edm, prodejny elektroniky a dom\u00e1c\u00edch spot\u0159ebi\u010d\u016f, prodejny od\u011bv\u016f a od\u011bvn\u00edch dopl\u0148k\u016f, prodejny zdravotn\u00ed a osobn\u00ed p\u00e9\u010de, prodejny n\u00e1bytku, obchodn\u00ed domy, prodejny n\u00e1poj\u016f, prodejny elektroniky apod. Po shrom\u00e1\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed \u00fadaj\u016f pak \u00da\u0159ad pro s\u010d\u00edt\u00e1n\u00ed (Census Bureau) publikuje p\u0159ibli\u017enou sumu, kterou spot\u0159ebitel\u00e9 utratili v\u00a0pr\u016fb\u011bhu p\u0159ede\u0161l\u00e9ho m\u011bs\u00edce.<\/p>\n<p>Zpr\u00e1va o maloobchodn\u00edch tr\u017eb\u00e1ch je uv\u00e1d\u011bna v\u00a0nomin\u00e1ln\u00edch hodnot\u00e1ch v\u00a0milionech dolar\u016f i jako procentu\u00e1ln\u00ed zm\u011bna oproti p\u0159edchoz\u00edm m\u011bs\u00edc\u016fm. Je publikov\u00e1na jednou za m\u011bs\u00edc, s\u00a0asi dvout\u00fddenn\u00edm zpo\u017ed\u011bn\u00edm, a zobrazuje mezim\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed (ta je v\u00edce sledovan\u00e1, proto\u017ee vyjad\u0159uje aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed zm\u011bny v ekonomice) a meziro\u010dn\u00ed zm\u011bnu (kter\u00e1 zohled\u0148uje sez\u00f3nn\u00ed vlivy).<\/p>\n<p>Data nejsou o\u010di\u0161t\u011bna o inflaci, co\u017e m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt nev\u00fdhoda ve sledov\u00e1n\u00ed n\u011bkter\u00fdch volatiln\u00edch odv\u011btv\u00ed, jako jsou energie. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b jsou data upravov\u00e1na o sez\u00f3nn\u00ed vlivy, berou v\u00a0\u00favahu sv\u00e1tky, kdy v\u00fddaje spot\u0159ebitel\u016f na kr\u00e1tkou dobu rychle vzrostou (nap\u0159\u00edklad V\u00e1noce p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed a\u017e 20 % v\u0161ech maloobchodn\u00edch prodej\u016f), a tak\u00e9 po\u010det pracovn\u00edch dn\u016f v\u00a0jednotliv\u00fdch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch.<\/p>\n<h2>D\u016fle\u017eit\u00fd \u00fadaj, v n\u011bm\u017e chyb\u00ed slu\u017eby<\/h2>\n<p>Investor\u016fm a trader\u016fm tyto \u00fadaje poskytuj\u00ed d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fd n\u00e1hled do chov\u00e1n\u00ed spot\u0159ebitel\u016f a informace o tom, za kter\u00e9 v\u00fdrobky a komodity spot\u0159ebitel\u00e9 v\u00a0dan\u00e9m obdob\u00ed nejv\u00edce utr\u00e1cej\u00ed. N\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed ekonomov\u00e9 pova\u017euj\u00ed za nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed nev\u00fdhodu \u00fadaj\u016f o maloobchodn\u00edch tr\u017eb\u00e1ch skute\u010dnost, \u017ee report bere v\u00a0\u00favahu pouze slu\u017eby spojen\u00e9 s\u00a0p\u0159\u00edm\u00fdm prodejem zbo\u017e\u00ed a nebere v \u00favahu tr\u017eby za slu\u017eby, jako jsou cestov\u00e1n\u00ed, kultura, instalat\u00e9rsk\u00e9 pr\u00e1ce nebo soukrom\u00e1 zdravotnick\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed apod. Ty p\u0159itom p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed pom\u011brn\u011b velkou \u010d\u00e1st ekonomiky USA.<\/p>\n<p>Obecn\u011b se d\u00e1 \u0159\u00edct, \u017ee jak\u00fdkoli kladn\u00fd \u00fadaj v\u00a0procentu\u00e1ln\u00edm vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00ed znamen\u00e1, \u017ee spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00e9 v\u00fddaje v\u00a0dan\u00e9m m\u011bs\u00edci rostly, \u010d\u00edslo ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e nula pak znamen\u00e1, \u017ee v\u00fddaje spot\u0159ebitel\u016f klesly. Stejn\u011b jako u ka\u017ed\u00e9ho jin\u00e9ho \u00fadaje v\u00a0makrokalend\u00e1\u0159i, i zde rozhoduje o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed ekonom\u016f a investor\u016f. Maloobchodn\u00ed tr\u017eby mohou b\u00fdt nap\u0159\u00edklad ovlivn\u011bny \u0161patn\u00fdm po\u010das\u00edm, kdy \u010d\u00edsla do\u010dasn\u011b klesnou, s\u00a0\u010d\u00edm mus\u00ed investo\u0159i po\u010d\u00edtat. Stejn\u011b tak m\u016f\u017ee m\u00edt na maloobchodn\u00ed tr\u017eby vliv zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed dan\u00ed, kdy tr\u017eby rovn\u011b\u017e na ur\u010dit\u00fd \u010das zaznamenaj\u00ed pokles.<\/p>\n<h2>R\u016fst tr\u017eeb = posilov\u00e1n\u00ed m\u011bny<\/h2>\n<p>Vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e1 aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed \u010d\u00edsla za p\u0159ede\u0161l\u00fd m\u011bs\u00edc znamenaj\u00ed, \u017ee r\u016fst spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00fdch v\u00fddaj\u016f zrychluje vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm tempem a ekonomick\u00e1 aktivita zrychluje. To by m\u011blo b\u00fdt pova\u017eov\u00e1no za pozitivn\u00ed informaci pro m\u011bnu dan\u00e9 zem\u011b, proto\u017ee s\u00a0r\u016fstem ekonomick\u00e9 aktivity roste pravd\u011bpodobnost, \u017ee dojde k\u00a0r\u016fstu \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb. Ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e1 \u010d\u00edsla jsou tak pro danou m\u011bnu pova\u017eov\u00e1na za negativn\u00ed.<\/p>\n<h2>Nic nen\u00ed tak jednozna\u010dn\u00e9<\/h2>\n<p>Ne v\u017edy to v\u0161ak mus\u00ed b\u00fdt tak jednozna\u010dn\u00e9, proto\u017ee na fungov\u00e1n\u00ed ekonomiky m\u00e1 vliv mnoho faktor\u016f. Dobr\u00fdm p\u0159\u00edkladem mohou b\u00fdt zem\u011b, kter\u00e9 jsou odk\u00e1zan\u00e9 na dovoz spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00e9ho zbo\u017e\u00ed, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e r\u016fst maloobchodn\u00edch tr\u017eeb m\u016f\u017ee znamenat v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed popt\u00e1vku po ciz\u00edch m\u011bn\u00e1ch a t\u00edm p\u00e1dem i pokles m\u011bny dan\u00e9 zem\u011b. Tak\u00e9 pokles pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 v\u00fdroby v\u00a0kombinaci s\u00a0rychl\u00fdm r\u016fstem maloobchodn\u00edch tr\u017eeb m\u016f\u017ee v\u00e9st ke zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed import\u016f do zem\u011b, co\u017e m\u00e1 negativn\u00ed vliv na obchodn\u00ed bilanci st\u00e1tu, ale tak\u00e9 na ceny, kter\u00e9 mohou v\u00fdrazn\u011bji vzr\u016fst, co\u017e povede v\u00a0budoucnu k\u00a0poklesu maloobchodn\u00edch tr\u017eeb a op\u011bt k\u00a0oslaben\u00ed m\u011bny.<\/p>\n<p>Centr\u00e1ln\u00ed bank\u00e9\u0159i v USA dnes p\u0159i rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed o \u00farokov\u00fdch sazb\u00e1ch berou v \u00favahu krom\u011b inflace tak\u00e9 v\u00fddaji na osobn\u00ed spot\u0159ebu (personal consumption expenditures, PCE), kter\u00e9 p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed v\u00edce ne\u017e dv\u011b t\u0159etiny HDP. Maloobchodn\u00ed tr\u017eby, kter\u00e9 p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b polovinu celkov\u00fdch spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00fdch v\u00fddaj\u016f, jim tak mohou poskytnout d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fd \u00fadaj o pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9m r\u016fstu PCE v sou\u010dasn\u00e9m i n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edm \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed. A n\u00e1sledn\u011b tak mohou investo\u0159i a obchodn\u00edci l\u00e9pe p\u0159edv\u00eddat, jak\u00e9 kroky podnikne centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka v boji s inflac\u00ed a jak ochotn\u011b bude pokra\u010dovat ve zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Maloobchodn\u00ed tr\u017eby pat\u0159\u00ed mezi nejsledovan\u011bj\u0161\u00ed data v\u00a0ekonomick\u00e9m kalend\u00e1\u0159i. Jejich v\u00fdznam pro rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank o \u00farokov\u00fdch sazb\u00e1ch roste s\u00a0t\u00edm, jak chov\u00e1n\u00ed spot\u0159ebitel\u016f ovliv\u0148uje rostouc\u00ed inflace. Maloobchodn\u00ed tr\u017eby p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed odhad celkov\u00fdch tr\u017eeb v\u00a0maloobchodn\u00edch prodejn\u00e1ch v\u00a0USA (podobn\u00e9 je to i v\u00a0jin\u00fdch zem\u00edch, ale v\u00a0tom \u010dl\u00e1nku budeme mluvit p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm o maloobchodn\u00edch tr\u017eb\u00e1ch v\u00a0nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ekonomice sv\u011bta). Jde o hlavn\u00ed [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":44,"featured_media":529822,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[88909],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-529742","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-rady-a-tipy"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.1 (Yoast SEO v24.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Ekonomick\u00fd kalend\u00e1\u0159 - jak maloobchodn\u00ed tr\u017eby reflektuj\u00ed ekonomickou aktivitu? | FTMO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/cs\/ekonomicky-kalendar-jak-maloobchodni-trzby-reflektuji-ekonomickou-aktivitu\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"cs_CZ\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Ekonomick\u00fd kalend\u00e1\u0159 - jak maloobchodn\u00ed tr\u017eby reflektuj\u00ed ekonomickou aktivitu?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Maloobchodn\u00ed tr\u017eby pat\u0159\u00ed mezi nejsledovan\u011bj\u0161\u00ed data v\u00a0ekonomick\u00e9m kalend\u00e1\u0159i. Jejich v\u00fdznam pro rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank o \u00farokov\u00fdch sazb\u00e1ch roste s\u00a0t\u00edm, jak chov\u00e1n\u00ed spot\u0159ebitel\u016f ovliv\u0148uje rostouc\u00ed inflace. Maloobchodn\u00ed tr\u017eby p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed odhad celkov\u00fdch tr\u017eeb v\u00a0maloobchodn\u00edch prodejn\u00e1ch v\u00a0USA (podobn\u00e9 je to i v\u00a0jin\u00fdch zem\u00edch, ale v\u00a0tom \u010dl\u00e1nku budeme mluvit p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm o maloobchodn\u00edch tr\u017eb\u00e1ch v\u00a0nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ekonomice sv\u011bta). 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