{"id":528912,"date":"2022-07-01T14:00:32","date_gmt":"2022-07-01T12:00:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/?p=528912"},"modified":"2024-04-18T09:23:04","modified_gmt":"2024-04-18T07:23:04","slug":"jaka-je-role-stesti-v-tradingu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/cs\/jaka-je-role-stesti-v-tradingu\/","title":{"rendered":"Jak\u00e1 je role \u0161t\u011bst\u00ed v tradingu?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Na \u0161t\u011bst\u00ed se v tradingu spol\u00e9hat nelze, o tom jsme na na\u0161em blogu psali u\u017e n\u011bkolikr\u00e1t. Tvrdit, \u017ee \u0161t\u011bst\u00ed je v tradingu pot\u0159ebn\u00e9, je tedy mo\u017en\u00e1 trochu kontroverzn\u00ed, ale ur\u010ditou roli \u0161t\u011bst\u00ed je pot\u0159eba v tradingu akceptovat.<\/em><\/p>\n

Nejde o to, abychom zpochyb\u0148ovali schopnosti \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00fdch investor\u016f dlouhodob\u011b dosahovat zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 zisky d\u00edky detailn\u00ed anal\u00fdze a studiu trh\u016f. S ur\u010ditou rol\u00ed \u0161t\u011bst\u00ed je ale v investov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u017edy nutn\u00e9 po\u010d\u00edtat. Zn\u00e1m\u00fd investor Howard Marks ve sv\u00e9 knize The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor <\/i><\/strong>napsal, \u017ee \u201esv\u011bt investic nen\u00ed uspo\u0159\u00e1dan\u00e9 a logick\u00e9 m\u00edsto, kde lze p\u0159edv\u00eddat budoucnost a kde konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed kroky v\u017edy p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161ej\u00ed konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed v\u00fdsledky. Pravdou je, \u017ee v investov\u00e1n\u00ed vl\u00e1dne z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti \u0161t\u011bst\u00ed. N\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed tomu mo\u017en\u00e1 rad\u011bji \u0159\u00edkaj\u00ed n\u00e1hoda nebo nahodilost a tato slova zn\u011bj\u00ed sofistikovan\u011bji ne\u017e \u0161t\u011bst\u00ed. Jde v\u0161ak o tot\u00e9\u017e: velkou \u010d\u00e1st \u00fasp\u011bchu v\u0161eho, co jako investo\u0159i d\u011bl\u00e1me, do zna\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edry ovlivn\u00ed hod kostkou.“<\/i><\/p>\n

Zeptejte se nejlep\u0161\u00edch investor\u016f a trader\u016f, jestli hraje v jejich \u00fasp\u011bchu roli \u0161t\u011bst\u00ed a kdy\u017e v\u00e1m \u0159eknou \u017ee ne, nejsp\u00ed\u0161e ne\u0159\u00edkaj\u00ed pravdu. Nech\u00e1pejte n\u00e1s \u0161patn\u011b, trading rozhodn\u011b nen\u00ed o \u0161t\u011bst\u00ed. Sami na n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch p\u0159\u00edkladech uvid\u00edte, \u017ee se sp\u00ed\u0161e bav\u00edme o investic\u00edch, kde \u0161t\u011bst\u00ed sehr\u00e1lo svou roli a d\u00edky n\u011bmu\u017e byla odm\u011bna mnohem p\u0159\u00edjemn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n

GEICO vs. Graham<\/h2>\n

Skv\u011bl\u00fdm p\u0159\u00edkladem m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt p\u0159\u00edpad zn\u00e1m\u00e9ho investora Benjamina Grahama, jeho\u017e fond v roce 1948 nakoupil akcie spole\u010dnosti GEICO v hodnot\u011b 712 500 dolar\u016f. Do roku 1972 vzrostla hodnota t\u00e9to investice na 400 milion\u016f dolar\u016f. Zaj\u00edmavost\u00ed na t\u00e9to investici je to, \u017ee Graham u n\u00ed poru\u0161il n\u011bkolik sv\u00fdch pravidel, kdy\u017e investoval v\u00edce ne\u017e 5 % aktiv fondu do jedn\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti (ve skute\u010dnosti to bylo v\u00edce ne\u017e 20 %) a dr\u017eel akcie spole\u010dnosti d\u00e1vno pot\u00e9, co spl\u0148ovala po\u017eadavky pro hodnotovou investici. Jak s\u00e1m Graham pozd\u011bji \u0159ekl, \u201ev roce 1948 jsme ud\u011blali investici do spole\u010dnosti GEICO a od t\u00e9 doby jsme byli pova\u017eov\u00e1ni za skv\u011bl\u00e9 investory<\/i>\u201c. Zisk z t\u00e9to investice podle Grahama nakonec p\u0159ekonal sou\u010det zisk\u016f ze v\u0161ech jeho ostatn\u00edch investic.<\/p>\n

GEICO vs. Buffett<\/h2>\n

Akcie spole\u010dnosti sice po roce 1972 zaznamenaly strm\u00fd p\u00e1d a ze 61 dolar\u016f za akcii na 2 dolary za akcii. V\u00a0t\u00e9 dob\u011b u\u017e byl zainteresov\u00e1n ve spole\u010dnosti tak\u00e9 student Grahama, Warren Buffett, kter\u00fd v\u00a0t\u00e9 dob\u011b za\u010dal prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm sv\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti Berkshire Hathaway akcie spole\u010dnosti nakupovat (mimochodem, nakupoval akcie spole\u010dnosti ji\u017e podruh\u00e9, na prvn\u00ed investici vyd\u011blal, ale prodal akcie p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 brzy). Podle odhad\u016f jen t\u00e9to investici si nakonec vyd\u011blal p\u0159es 20 miliard dolar\u016f. V\u00a0jeho p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b v\u0161ak nelze mluvit vysloven\u011b o \u0161t\u011bst\u00ed, i kdy\u017e on s\u00e1m p\u0159iznal, \u017ee pr\u00e1v\u011b GEICO byla jeho nejlep\u0161\u00ed \u017eivotn\u00ed investice (a nikdy je neprodal, proto\u017ee dnes je GEICO sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed Berkshire Hathaway).<\/p>\n

Soros vs. BoE<\/h2>\n

Zn\u00e1m\u00fdm p\u0159\u00edkladem \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9 spekulace je tzv. \u010dern\u00e1 st\u0159eda 17. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 1992, kdy George Soros spekuloval na pokles britsk\u00e9 libry a vyd\u011blal p\u0159i tom 1 miliardu dolar\u016f. Samotn\u00fd obchod nen\u00ed a\u017e tak o \u0161t\u011bst\u00ed, proto\u017ee Soros p\u0159esn\u011b v\u011bd\u011bl, co d\u011bl\u00e1, spr\u00e1vn\u011b analyzoval podm\u00ednky na trhu, a tak\u00e9 v\u011bd\u011bl, kolik pen\u011bz na to mus\u00ed vynalo\u017eit. Ur\u010ditou d\u00e1vku \u0161t\u011bst\u00ed ale m\u011bl, kdy\u017e po \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9m obchod\u011b p\u0159iznal, \u017ee \u201ena\u0161e celkov\u00e1 pozice v \u010cernou st\u0159edu musela m\u00edt velikost t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 10 miliard dolar\u016f. Pl\u00e1novali jsme ale prodat v\u00edc. Ve skute\u010dnosti, kdy\u017e Norman Lamont (britsk\u00fd ministr financ\u00ed) t\u011bsn\u011b p\u0159ed devalvac\u00ed m\u011bny \u0159ekl, \u017ee si na obranu libry p\u016fj\u010d\u00ed t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 15 miliard dolar\u016f, pobavilo n\u00e1s to, proto\u017ee zhruba tolik jsme cht\u011bli prodat.<\/em>\u201c<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Jak\u00fd je tedy rozd\u00edl mezi dobr\u00fdm a \u0161patn\u00fdm traderem\/investorem, kter\u00fd se \u0161t\u011bst\u00edm vyd\u011blal hodn\u011b pen\u011bz? \u0160patn\u00fd trader\/investor nedok\u00e1\u017ee na jeden \u0161\u0165astn\u00fd obchod nav\u00e1zat a v\u00a0del\u0161\u00edm horizontu o sv\u00e9 vyd\u011blan\u00e9 pen\u00edze d\u0159\u00edve nebo pozd\u011bji p\u0159ijde. Dobr\u00fd trader\/investor dok\u00e1\u017ee \u0161\u0165astn\u00fd obchod vyu\u017e\u00edt ve sv\u016fj prosp\u011bch. M\u016f\u017ee mu to dodat zdrav\u00e9 sebev\u011bdom\u00ed, umo\u017en\u00ed mu to otev\u00edrat v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pozice bez poru\u0161en\u00ed pravidel risk managementu a zv\u00fd\u0161it sv\u00e9 potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed zisky v\u00a0absolutn\u00edm vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00ed.<\/p>\n

St\u00e1le tedy plat\u00ed, \u017ee na \u0161t\u011bst\u00ed se v tradingu nem\u016f\u017eeme spol\u00e9hat. Pokud se n\u00e1m po\u0161t\u011bst\u00ed zrealizovat v\u00fdjime\u010dn\u011b dobr\u00fd obchod, mus\u00edme jej br\u00e1t jako sou\u010d\u00e1st tradingu, sna\u017eit se vyu\u017e\u00edt jej ve sv\u016fj prosp\u011bch, ale nespol\u00e9hat se na to, \u017ee se n\u011bco podobn\u00e9ho stane pravidlem. Benjamin Graham to vystihl, kdy\u017e \u0159ekl, \u017ee \u201eza \u0161t\u011bst\u00edm nebo z\u00e1sadn\u00edm rozhodnut\u00edm mus\u00ed obvykle existovat pozad\u00ed p\u0159\u00edpravy a discipl\u00edny. \u010clov\u011bk mus\u00ed b\u00fdt dostate\u010dn\u011b fundovan\u00fd a uv\u011bdom\u011bl\u00fd, aby tyto p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti zaklepaly na jeho konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed dve\u0159e. \u010clov\u011bk mus\u00ed m\u00edt prost\u0159edky, \u00fasudek a odvahu je vyu\u017e\u00edt.<\/em>\u201c<\/p>\n

Poda\u0159ilo se i v\u00e1m vyd\u011blat n\u011bjak\u00fdm \u0161\u0165astn\u00fdm obchodem, kter\u00fd poru\u0161il snad v\u0161echna va\u0161e tradingov\u00e1 pravidla? Gratulujeme, m\u011bli jste zrovna \u0161\u0165astn\u00fd den a to se taky po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1. Nikdy v\u0161ak ale nezapom\u00ednejte, \u017ee to byla pouze n\u00e1hoda! Necht\u011bjte to zopakovat zas a znova. Vra\u0165te se zp\u011bt ke sv\u00e9 strategii a pravidl\u016fm a z\u016fsta\u0148te konzistentn\u00ed. Jen to je zp\u016fsob, jak dlouhodob\u011b dosahovat zisky.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Na \u0161t\u011bst\u00ed se v tradingu spol\u00e9hat nelze, o tom jsme na na\u0161em blogu psali u\u017e n\u011bkolikr\u00e1t. Tvrdit, \u017ee \u0161t\u011bst\u00ed je v tradingu pot\u0159ebn\u00e9, je tedy mo\u017en\u00e1 trochu kontroverzn\u00ed, ale ur\u010ditou roli \u0161t\u011bst\u00ed je pot\u0159eba v tradingu akceptovat. Nejde o to, abychom zpochyb\u0148ovali schopnosti \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00fdch investor\u016f dlouhodob\u011b dosahovat zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 zisky d\u00edky detailn\u00ed anal\u00fdze a studiu trh\u016f. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":44,"featured_media":529005,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[88925],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-528912","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-psychologie-obchodovani"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nJak\u00e1 je role \u0161t\u011bst\u00ed v tradingu? | FTMO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/cs\/jaka-je-role-stesti-v-tradingu\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"cs_CZ\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Jak\u00e1 je role \u0161t\u011bst\u00ed v tradingu?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Na \u0161t\u011bst\u00ed se v tradingu spol\u00e9hat nelze, o tom jsme na na\u0161em blogu psali u\u017e n\u011bkolikr\u00e1t. Tvrdit, \u017ee \u0161t\u011bst\u00ed je v tradingu pot\u0159ebn\u00e9, je tedy mo\u017en\u00e1 trochu kontroverzn\u00ed, ale ur\u010ditou roli \u0161t\u011bst\u00ed je pot\u0159eba v tradingu akceptovat. Nejde o to, abychom zpochyb\u0148ovali schopnosti \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00fdch investor\u016f dlouhodob\u011b dosahovat zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 zisky d\u00edky detailn\u00ed anal\u00fdze a studiu trh\u016f. 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Tvrdit, \u017ee \u0161t\u011bst\u00ed je v tradingu pot\u0159ebn\u00e9, je tedy mo\u017en\u00e1 trochu kontroverzn\u00ed, ale ur\u010ditou roli \u0161t\u011bst\u00ed je pot\u0159eba v tradingu akceptovat. Nejde o to, abychom zpochyb\u0148ovali schopnosti \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00fdch investor\u016f dlouhodob\u011b dosahovat zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 zisky d\u00edky detailn\u00ed anal\u00fdze a studiu trh\u016f. 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