{"id":527963,"date":"2022-06-10T14:00:10","date_gmt":"2022-06-10T12:00:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/?p=527963"},"modified":"2022-06-14T11:28:06","modified_gmt":"2022-06-14T09:28:06","slug":"ekonomicky-kalendar-centralni-banky-jako-hlavni-hrac-na-trhu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/cs\/ekonomicky-kalendar-centralni-banky-jako-hlavni-hrac-na-trhu\/","title":{"rendered":"Ekonomick\u00fd kalend\u00e1\u0159 \u2013 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky jako hlavn\u00ed hr\u00e1\u010d na trhu"},"content":{"rendered":"

V dal\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti na\u0161eho seri\u00e1lu o d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdch datech v\u00a0ekonomick\u00e9m kalend\u00e1\u0159i a jejich vlivu na obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed na forexu se pod\u00edv\u00e1me na vliv centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank na finan\u010dn\u00ed trhy. Centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky jsou v\u00a0polovin\u011b roku 2022 v\u00a0hled\u00e1\u010dku investor\u016f a trader\u016f mo\u017en\u00e1 je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce ne\u017e kdy jindy, a proto na n\u011b nesm\u00edme zapomenout.<\/em><\/p>\n

Centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky jsou (nebo by m\u011bly b\u00fdt) instituce, jejich\u017e hlavn\u00ed \u00falohou je stabilita m\u011bny a ekonomick\u00e9ho r\u016fstu v\u00a0dan\u00e9 zemi. P\u016fsob\u00ed tak\u00e9 jako regula\u010dn\u00ed org\u00e1n finan\u010dn\u00edch instituc\u00ed, je emitentem n\u00e1rodn\u00ed m\u011bny, poskytuje \u00fav\u011bry ostatn\u00edm finan\u010dn\u00edm instituc\u00edm a funguje jako v\u011b\u0159itel posledn\u00ed instance.<\/p>\n

Finan\u010dn\u00ed stabilita a stabiln\u00ed m\u011bna<\/h2>\n

Nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u010dinnost\u00ed centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky je udr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00ed stability prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm intervenc\u00ed na finan\u010dn\u00edch trz\u00edch. M\u016f\u017ee to d\u011blat prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm operac\u00ed na otev\u0159en\u00e9m trhu, kdy nakupuje finan\u010dn\u00ed aktiva (v\u011bt\u0161inou vl\u00e1dn\u00ed dluhopisy) od ostatn\u00edch bank a t\u00edm dod\u00e1v\u00e1 na trh likviditu (nebo naopak, kdy\u017e chce likviditu na trhu omezit), nebo prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm nastaven\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb.<\/p>\n

Trade\u0159i na forexu pozorn\u011b sleduj\u00ed kroky centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank prakticky po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b, hlavn\u00ed slovo ale m\u00e1 jen p\u00e1r instituc\u00ed, kter\u00e9 z\u00e1sadn\u00edm zp\u016fsobem ovliv\u0148uj\u00ed d\u011bn\u00ed na forexu. Jeliko\u017e je nejobchodovan\u011bj\u0161\u00ed m\u011bnou na forexu USD, m\u00e1 nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed vliv na d\u011bn\u00ed na forexu americk\u00e1 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka, Federal Reserve, zkr\u00e1cen\u011b Fed. Krom\u011b n\u00ed pak trade\u0159i sleduj\u00ed kroky dal\u0161\u00edch sedmi centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank ze zem\u00ed, jejich\u017e m\u011bny tvo\u0159\u00ed s\u00a0americk\u00fdm dolarem tzv. majors p\u00e1ry (European Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Swiss National Bank, Bank of Canada, Reserve Bank of Australia, a Reserve Bank of New Zealand).<\/p>\n

Poka\u017ed\u00e9, kdy\u017e je u jedn\u00e9 z\u00a0t\u011bchto centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank napl\u00e1nov\u00e1no zased\u00e1n\u00ed, na n\u011bm\u017e se rozhoduje o m\u011bnov\u00e9 politice, mus\u00ed se m\u00edt trade\u0159i na pozoru. O \u00farokov\u00fdch sazb\u00e1ch rozhoduje v\u00a0r\u00e1mci centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky jej\u00ed hlavn\u00ed v\u00fdkonn\u00fd org\u00e1n. V\u00a0r\u00e1mci Fedu je to Feder\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00fdbor pro otev\u0159en\u00fd trh (Federal Open Maket Committe, FOMC), v\u00a0r\u00e1mci ECB je to Rada guvern\u00e9r\u016f, Bank of England m\u00e1 V\u00fdbor pro m\u011bnovou politiku (Monetary Policy Committee) apod.<\/p>\n

\u00darokov\u00e9 sazby maj\u00ed na ekonomiku jednotliv\u00fdch zem\u00ed pom\u011brn\u011b velk\u00fd vliv, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky se p\u0159i jejich nastaven\u00ed \u0159\u00edd\u00ed zejm\u00e9na inflac\u00ed, ale vliv na rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee m\u00edt celkov\u00fd stav ekonomiky, trh pr\u00e1ce apod. Vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby v\u00a0dan\u00e9 zemi zdra\u017euj\u00ed financov\u00e1n\u00ed dluh\u016f (jak firm\u00e1m, tak spot\u0159ebitel\u016fm), co\u017e vede k omezen\u00ed investic, spot\u0159eby a mo\u017en\u00e9mu n\u00e1r\u016fstu \u00faspor, \u010d\u00edm\u017e se centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky sna\u017e\u00ed omezit inflaci (jako je tomu i v\u00a0roce 2022). Z\u00e1rove\u0148 si ale mus\u00ed d\u00e1vat pozor na to, aby ekonomiku neschladily p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 a aby nedo\u0161lo k\u00a0recesi.<\/p>\n

Z\u00a0hlediska investor\u016f a trader\u016f znamen\u00e1 zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb dan\u00e9 m\u011bny jej\u00ed vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed atraktivitu (vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed sazby u depozit a dluhopis\u016f), co\u017e pak vede k\u00a0posilov\u00e1n\u00ed dan\u00e9 m\u011bny v\u016f\u010di ostatn\u00edm m\u011bn\u00e1m. Samotn\u00e1 zm\u011bna sazeb nemus\u00ed v\u00e9st k\u00a0v\u00fdrazn\u00fdm pohyb\u016fm, proto\u017ee pohyby m\u011bn jsou d\u00edky tzv. forward guidance centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank v\u011bt\u0161inou zapo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1ny v\u00a0kurzech. I tak ale m\u016f\u017ee na trz\u00edch doj\u00edt po zased\u00e1n\u00ed m\u011bnov\u00e9ho v\u00fdboru k\u00a0n\u00e1r\u016fstu volatility, podobn\u011b jako tomu bylo po zased\u00e1n\u00ed ECB 9. \u010dervna 2022.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Zmi\u0148ovan\u00e9 forward guidance v\u011bt\u0161inou poskytuj\u00ed jednotliv\u00ed \u010dlenov\u00e9 m\u011bnov\u00fdch v\u00fdbor\u016f, resp. guvern\u00e9r\u016f centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank, kte\u0159\u00ed tak mohou nab\u00eddnout vod\u00edtko investor\u016fm o tom, jak\u00fdm sm\u011brem se m\u011bnov\u00e1 politika bude ub\u00edrat v\u00a0nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00ed budoucnosti.<\/p>\n

Ne v\u0161echny centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky jednaj\u00ed stejn\u011b<\/h2>\n

P\u0159esto\u017ee je z\u00e1kladn\u00ed princip fungov\u00e1n\u00ed centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b stejn\u00fd a hlavn\u00edm c\u00edlem je cenov\u00e1 stabilita, kroky jednotliv\u00fdch instituc\u00ed se mohou v\u00fdrazn\u011b li\u0161it. V\u00a0polovin\u011b roku 2022 tak m\u016f\u017eeme vid\u011bt, \u017ee v\u011bt\u0161ina centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank bojuje s\u00a0inflac\u00ed, ale najde se i v\u00fdjimka.<\/p>\n

Americk\u00fd Fed za\u010dal se zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00edm \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb v b\u0159eznu a pl\u00e1nuje na sv\u00fdch zased\u00e1n\u00edch dal\u0161\u00ed zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed sazeb a\u017e o 0,5 % (aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed sazba v \u010dervnu je v rozmez\u00ed 0,75 \u2013 1 %). A\u017e do b\u0159ezna p\u0159itom prov\u00e1d\u011bl program kvantitativn\u00edho uvol\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed a s kvantitativn\u00edm zp\u0159\u00eds\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00edm za\u010dal v \u010dervnu. ECB pl\u00e1nuje za\u010d\u00edt zvy\u0161ovat \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby v \u010dervenci, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed z\u00e1kladn\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e1 sazba je na nule. S kvantitativn\u00edm zp\u0159\u00eds\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00edm ale nem\u00edn\u00ed posp\u00edchat. Bank of England za\u010dala se zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00edm sazeb u\u017e v prosinci, v \u010dervnu m\u00e1 sazbu nastavenou na 1 % a na dal\u0161\u00edch zased\u00e1n\u00edch pl\u00e1nuje zvy\u0161ovat sazbu o 0,25 %.<\/p>\n

Japonsk\u00e1 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka na rozd\u00edl od v\u0161ech ostatn\u00edch udr\u017euje extr\u00e9mn\u011b uvoln\u011bnou m\u011bnovou politiku. P\u0159esto\u017ee je v\u00a0tomto obdob\u00ed japonsk\u00fd jen nejslab\u0161\u00ed za posledn\u00edch dvacet let, BoJ na tomto sv\u00e9m postoji nem\u00edn\u00ed nic m\u011bnit a tento stav j\u00ed vyhovuje, proto\u017ee Japonsko se po velmi dlouh\u00e9 dob\u011b m\u016f\u017ee do\u010dkat alespo\u0148 n\u011bjak\u00e9 inflace.<\/p>\n

Tento nepom\u011br ve prosp\u011bch americk\u00e9ho dolaru v\u0161ak nemus\u00ed m\u00edt vliv pouze na evropskou a japonskou m\u011bnu, ale tak\u00e9 na ekonomiky mnoha rozv\u00edjej\u00edc\u00edch se zem\u00ed. \u00daprk investor\u016f do dolaru toti\u017e m\u016f\u017ee znamenat v\u00fdprodej a znehodnocen\u00ed m\u011bn, odliv kapit\u00e1lu z t\u011bchto rozv\u00edjej\u00edc\u00edch se zem\u00ed a n\u00e1sledn\u00fd \u00fatlum ekonomick\u00e9 aktivity a sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed popt\u00e1vky.<\/p>\n

Centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky jsou jedn\u00edm z\u00a0nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edch hr\u00e1\u010d\u016f na finan\u010dn\u00edch trz\u00edch. Tyto instituce doslova ovliv\u0148uj\u00ed fungov\u00e1n\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00edch trh\u016f a hodnotu m\u011bn sv\u00fdmi intervencemi, a proto by jejich kroky m\u011bli investo\u0159i a trade\u0159i na forexu velmi bedliv\u011b sledovat.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

V dal\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti na\u0161eho seri\u00e1lu o d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdch datech v\u00a0ekonomick\u00e9m kalend\u00e1\u0159i a jejich vlivu na obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed na forexu se pod\u00edv\u00e1me na vliv centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank na finan\u010dn\u00ed trhy. Centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky jsou v\u00a0polovin\u011b roku 2022 v\u00a0hled\u00e1\u010dku investor\u016f a trader\u016f mo\u017en\u00e1 je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce ne\u017e kdy jindy, a proto na n\u011b nesm\u00edme zapomenout. Centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky jsou (nebo by m\u011bly b\u00fdt) […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":44,"featured_media":528065,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[88909],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-527963","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-rady-a-tipy"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nEkonomick\u00fd kalend\u00e1\u0159 \u2013 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky jako hlavn\u00ed hr\u00e1\u010d na trhu | FTMO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/cs\/ekonomicky-kalendar-centralni-banky-jako-hlavni-hrac-na-trhu\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"cs_CZ\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Ekonomick\u00fd kalend\u00e1\u0159 \u2013 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky jako hlavn\u00ed hr\u00e1\u010d na trhu\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"V dal\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti na\u0161eho seri\u00e1lu o d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdch datech v\u00a0ekonomick\u00e9m kalend\u00e1\u0159i a jejich vlivu na obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed na forexu se pod\u00edv\u00e1me na vliv centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank na finan\u010dn\u00ed trhy. 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