{"id":527136,"date":"2022-05-26T15:29:17","date_gmt":"2022-05-26T13:29:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/?p=527136"},"modified":"2023-06-22T12:41:57","modified_gmt":"2023-06-22T10:41:57","slug":"technicka-analyza-kdo-je-otcem-moderni-technicke-analyzy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/cs\/technicka-analyza-kdo-je-otcem-moderni-technicke-analyzy\/","title":{"rendered":"Technick\u00e1 anal\u00fdza \u2013 kdo je otcem modern\u00ed technick\u00e9 anal\u00fdzy?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Technick\u00e1 anal\u00fdza je jednou z\u00a0nejstar\u0161\u00edch a z\u00e1rove\u0148 nejkontroverzn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch metod anal\u00fdzy a predikce v\u00fdvoje na trz\u00edch, pro v\u011bt\u0161inu trader\u016f na forexu je v\u0161ak nenahraditeln\u00fdm n\u00e1strojem p\u0159i rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed o obchodech. V\u00a0dne\u0161n\u00edm \u010dl\u00e1nku si pop\u00ed\u0161eme jej\u00ed z\u00e1klady a modern\u00ed historii.<\/em><\/p>\n

Technick\u00e1 anal\u00fdza se d\u00e1 jednodu\u0161e popsat v n\u011bkolika bodech:<\/p>\n

– v\u0161echny informace (fundament\u00e1ln\u00ed, psychologick\u00e9, ekonomick\u00e9, politick\u00e9) jsou zahrnuty v cen\u011b. Studium finan\u010dn\u00edch v\u00fdkaz\u016f a hled\u00e1n\u00ed vnit\u0159n\u00ed hodnoty je tedy zbyte\u010dn\u00e9,<\/p>\n

– d\u00edky emotivn\u00edmu chov\u00e1n\u00ed investor\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed se v ur\u010dit\u00fdch situac\u00edch chovaj\u00ed podobn\u011b a st\u00e1dovit\u011b, se historie na trz\u00edch opakuje. Trade\u0159i tak v grafech mohou naj\u00edt vzorce a formace, kter\u00e9 jim pom\u00e1haj\u00ed p\u0159i ur\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159i ur\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed budouc\u00edho pohybu cen,<\/p>\n

– ceny se pohybuj\u00ed v trendech, kter\u00e9 se vyzna\u010duj\u00ed setrva\u010dnost\u00ed. Kdy\u017e se na trhu vytvo\u0159\u00ed trend, m\u00e1 tendenci n\u011bjakou dobu pokra\u010dovat,<\/p>\n

– technick\u00e1 anal\u00fdza trader\u016fm ukazuje \u201ejak\u00e1\u201c je cena, a ne \u201epro\u010d\u201c je tam, kde je. Cena a jej\u00ed zm\u011bna je tvo\u0159ena vztahem nab\u00eddky a popt\u00e1vky.<\/p>\n

Technickou anal\u00fdzu dnes nej\u010dast\u011bji vyu\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed kr\u00e1tkodob\u00ed obchodn\u00edci na forexu, lze ji v\u0161ak vyu\u017e\u00edvat p\u0159i obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00a0jak\u00fdmkoli investi\u010dn\u00edm n\u00e1strojem. \u010casto ji vyu\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed i fundament\u00e1ln\u00ed investo\u0159i, kte\u0159\u00ed cht\u011bj\u00ed z\u00edskat jin\u00fd pohled na trh, nebo jen zkr\u00e1tka l\u00e9pe na\u010dasovat svou investici.<\/p>\n

Historie technick\u00e9 anal\u00fdzy<\/h2>\n

V\u00a0minul\u00e9m \u010dl\u00e1nku na\u0161eho seri\u00e1lu jsme psali o historii vzniku sv\u00ed\u010dkov\u00fdch graf\u016f, kter\u00e9 \u201eobjevil\u201c japonsk\u00fd obchodn\u00edk s\u00a0r\u00fd\u017e\u00ed Munehisa Homma ji\u017e v\u00a018. stolet\u00ed a dnes tvo\u0159\u00ed z\u00e1klad technick\u00e9 anal\u00fdzy. Za po\u010d\u00e1tek modern\u00ed technick\u00e9 anal\u00fdzy v\u0161ak m\u016f\u017eeme pova\u017eovat vznik tzv. Dowovy teorie. Jej\u00ed z\u00e1klad tvo\u0159\u00ed soubor \u010dl\u00e1nk\u016f Charlese H. Dowa, publikovan\u00fdch v\u00a0magaz\u00ednu The Wall Street Journal mezi lety 1900 a 1902. Po jeho smrti Dowovi my\u0161lenky d\u00e1le rozv\u00edjel William Hamilton a v\u00a0roce 1922 je Robert Rhea vydal jako jednotn\u00fd soubor, resp. teorii v\u00a0knize pod n\u00e1zvem Dow Theory.<\/p>\n

Dow teorie<\/h2>\n

Dow vych\u00e1zel z\u00a0akciov\u00e9ho trhu, kter\u00fd pova\u017eoval za barometr cel\u00e9 ekonomiky. Akcie se podle n\u011bj pohybovaly v\u011bt\u0161inou velmi podobn\u011b, a tak dal dohromady n\u011bkolik akciov\u00fdch titul\u016f reprezentuj\u00edc\u00edch cel\u00fd trh a ud\u011blal z\u00a0nich pr\u016fm\u011br. Vznikly tak dva indexy, Dow Jones Rail Average (pozd\u011bji p\u0159ejmenovan\u00fd na Dow Jones Transportation Average), reprezentuj\u00edc\u00ed \u017eelezni\u010dn\u00ed, resp. dopravn\u00ed sektor a Dow Jones Industrial Average, kter\u00fd reprezentoval pr\u016fmysl. Tyto indexy pokr\u00fdvaly dva hlavn\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9 segmenty a v\u011brn\u011b charakterizovaly d\u011bn\u00ed v\u00a0cel\u00e9 ekonomice. Dowova teorie vych\u00e1z\u00ed ze \u0161esti z\u00e1kladn\u00edch princip\u016f, kter\u00e9 by si m\u011bl osvojit ka\u017ed\u00fd, kdo chce technickou anal\u00fdzu vyu\u017e\u00edvat.<\/p>\n

Trh zohled\u0148uje v\u0161echny informace<\/h3>\n

V\u0161echny minul\u00e9, sou\u010dasn\u00e9 a tak\u00e9 budouc\u00ed informace jsou ji\u017e zapo\u010dteny v cen\u011b dan\u00e9ho aktiva. Tyto informace zohled\u0148uj\u00ed ve\u0161ker\u00e9 fundament\u00e1ln\u00ed a psychologick\u00e9 faktory ovliv\u0148uj\u00edc\u00ed popt\u00e1vku a nab\u00eddku, mezi n\u011b\u017e pat\u0159\u00ed jak emoce a znalosti v\u0161ech \u00fa\u010dastn\u00edk\u016f trhu, tak i \u00fadaje o inflaci, \u00farokov\u00fdch sazb\u00e1ch nebo zpr\u00e1vy o o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fdch v\u00fdsledc\u00edch spole\u010dnost\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Trh m\u00e1 t\u0159i trendy<\/h3>\n

Z\u00e1kladem Dowovi teorie, stejn\u011b jako dne\u0161n\u00ed technick\u00e9 anal\u00fdzy, je vyhled\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed a anal\u00fdza trend\u016f. Trhy se sice pohybuj\u00ed v\u00a0trendech, ale ned\u011blaj\u00ed to p\u0159\u00edmo\u010da\u0159e, ale prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm n\u011bkolika krat\u0161\u00edch \u00fasek\u016f, kter\u00e9 maj\u00ed sv\u00e1 lok\u00e1ln\u00ed maxima a minima. P\u0159i vzestupn\u00e9m bude ka\u017ed\u00e9 lok\u00e1ln\u00ed maximum na vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00farovni ne\u017e p\u0159edchoz\u00ed lok\u00e1ln\u00ed maximum a ka\u017ed\u00e9 lok\u00e1ln\u00ed minimum bude na vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00farovni ne\u017e p\u0159edchoz\u00ed lok\u00e1ln\u00ed minimum. U sestupn\u00e9ho trendu budou lok\u00e1ln\u00ed maxima a minima n\u00e1sledov\u00e1ny dal\u0161\u00edmi lok\u00e1ln\u00edmi minimy a maximy, kter\u00e9 budou na ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed \u00farovni. Dow pak definoval t\u0159i druhy trend\u016f: prim\u00e1rn\u00ed trend, sekund\u00e1rn\u00ed trend a vedlej\u0161\u00ed, nebo minoritn\u00ed trend.<\/p>\n

Prim\u00e1rn\u00ed trend<\/strong> je hlavn\u00edm a nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edm trendem trhu, kter\u00fd ovliv\u0148uje d\u011bn\u00ed na trhu a m\u00e1 vliv tak\u00e9 na sekund\u00e1rn\u00ed a minoritn\u00ed trendy. Prim\u00e1rn\u00ed trend m\u016f\u017ee trvat od jednoho roku a\u017e po n\u011bkolik let a bez ohledu na d\u00e9lku je platn\u00fd, pokud nedojde k\u00a0potvrzen\u00ed zvratu.<\/p>\n

Sekund\u00e1rn\u00ed trend<\/strong> jde opa\u010dn\u00fdm sm\u011brem ne\u017e prim\u00e1rn\u00ed trend a je funguje jako jeho korekce. V rostouc\u00edm prim\u00e1rn\u00edm trendu je sekund\u00e1rn\u00ed trend klesaj\u00edc\u00ed a naopak. Obvykl\u00e9 trv\u00e1n\u00ed sekund\u00e1rn\u00edho trendu je od t\u0159\u00ed t\u00fddn\u016f do t\u0159\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f a zp\u011btn\u00fd pohyb n\u00edm vytvo\u0159en m\u00e1 v\u011bt\u0161inou rozsah od jedn\u00e9 do dvou t\u0159etin prim\u00e1rn\u00edho trendu.<\/p>\n

Minoritn\u00ed, neboli vedlej\u0161\u00ed trend<\/strong>, je korekc\u00ed sekund\u00e1rn\u00edho trendu a jde o pohyb, kter\u00fd obvykle trv\u00e1 m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e t\u0159i t\u00fddny.<\/p>\n

Prim\u00e1rn\u00ed trend m\u00e1 t\u0159i f\u00e1ze<\/h3>\n

Prim\u00e1rn\u00ed trend byl pro Dowa nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e ka\u017ed\u00fd prim\u00e1rn\u00ed trend proch\u00e1z\u00ed t\u0159emi f\u00e1zemi: akumula\u010dn\u00ed, ve\u0159ejnou a distribu\u010dn\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Akumula\u010dn\u00ed f\u00e1ze nast\u00e1v\u00e1 na konci p\u0159ede\u0161l\u00e9ho trendu, kdy do obchod\u016f vstupuj\u00ed pouze dob\u0159e informovan\u00ed investo\u0159i. V\u011bt\u0161ina zpr\u00e1v je ji\u017e zohledn\u011bna v\u00a0cen\u00e1ch, \u010d\u00edm\u017e se omezuje mo\u017enost dal\u0161\u00edho pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed trendu.<\/p>\n

Ve ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 f\u00e1zi se za\u010dne do odchod\u016f zapojovat st\u00e1le v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pod\u00edl investor\u016f, v\u010detn\u011b technick\u00fdch, kte\u0159\u00ed s\u00e1z\u00ed na potvrzen\u00ed trendu.<\/p>\n

Ve f\u00e1zi distribuce se na trhu objevuje investorsk\u00e1 ve\u0159ejnost a nakupuj\u00ed zejm\u00e9na ti, kte\u0159\u00ed se daj\u00ed nal\u00e1kat na hezky vypadaj\u00edc\u00ed siln\u00fd trend. Investice na maximech, resp. minimech je pro v\u011bt\u0161inu t\u011bchto investor\u016f tak\u0159ka jistotou prod\u011blku, proto\u017ee prvn\u00ed skupina investor\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed investovali p\u0159i akumula\u010dn\u00ed f\u00e1zi, se za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 z\u00a0trhu stahovat.<\/p>\n

Tr\u017en\u00ed indexy se musej\u00ed navz\u00e1jem potvrzovat<\/h3>\n

Podle Dowa musely trend signalizovat oba indexy, DJIA, i DJTA, kter\u00e9 slou\u017eily jako indik\u00e1tory v\u00fdvoje v\u00a0ekonomice. Kdy\u017e se tedy da\u0159\u00ed pr\u016fmyslu, mus\u00ed se da\u0159it i doprav\u011b, kter\u00e1 zaji\u0161\u0165uje dovoz surovin a v\u00fdvoz hotov\u00fdch v\u00fdrobk\u016f. I dnes trade\u0159i \u010dasto hledaj\u00ed konfluence v\u00edce faktor\u016f p\u0159ed vstupem do trhu.<\/p>\n

Trend by m\u011bl b\u00fdt potvrzen objemem<\/h3>\n

Objem, kter\u00fd byl podle Dowa sekund\u00e1rn\u00edm indik\u00e1torem, potvrzuje s\u00edlu trendu. Ve sm\u011bru trendu by m\u011bl tedy objem obchod\u016f r\u016fst a proti sm\u011bru trendu klesat.<\/p>\n

Trend je platn\u00fd, dokud se neuk\u00e1\u017ee jasn\u00fd sign\u00e1l zvratu<\/h3>\n

Dokud je trend siln\u00fd, existuje velk\u00e1 pravd\u011bpodobnost jeho pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed i p\u0159es existenci korekc\u00ed a \u201e\u0161umu\u201c na trz\u00edch. C\u00edlem je pokud mo\u017eno se vyhnout obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed proti trendu, kter\u00e9 vede \u010dasto ke zbyte\u010dn\u00fdm ztr\u00e1t\u00e1m.<\/p>\n

Charles H. Dow sice sv\u00e9 my\u0161lenky aplikoval pouze na akcie a nebyl technick\u00fdm obchodn\u00edkem v\u00a0dne\u0161n\u00edm smyslu slova, ale jeho my\u0161lenky jsou st\u00e1le pova\u017eov\u00e1ny za z\u00e1klad modern\u00ed technick\u00e9 anal\u00fdzy. A to p\u0159esto, \u017ee investov\u00e1n\u00ed i ekonomika pro\u0161ly za l\u00e9ta od jeho smrti velk\u00fdmi zm\u011bnami.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Technick\u00e1 anal\u00fdza je jednou z\u00a0nejstar\u0161\u00edch a z\u00e1rove\u0148 nejkontroverzn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch metod anal\u00fdzy a predikce v\u00fdvoje na trz\u00edch, pro v\u011bt\u0161inu trader\u016f na forexu je v\u0161ak nenahraditeln\u00fdm n\u00e1strojem p\u0159i rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed o obchodech. V\u00a0dne\u0161n\u00edm \u010dl\u00e1nku si pop\u00ed\u0161eme jej\u00ed z\u00e1klady a modern\u00ed historii. Technick\u00e1 anal\u00fdza se d\u00e1 jednodu\u0161e popsat v n\u011bkolika bodech: – v\u0161echny informace (fundament\u00e1ln\u00ed, psychologick\u00e9, ekonomick\u00e9, politick\u00e9) jsou zahrnuty […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":44,"featured_media":527246,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[88911],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-527136","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-obchodni-systemy"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nTechnick\u00e1 anal\u00fdza \u2013 kdo je otcem modern\u00ed technick\u00e9 anal\u00fdzy? | FTMO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/cs\/technicka-analyza-kdo-je-otcem-moderni-technicke-analyzy\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"cs_CZ\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Technick\u00e1 anal\u00fdza \u2013 kdo je otcem modern\u00ed technick\u00e9 anal\u00fdzy?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Technick\u00e1 anal\u00fdza je jednou z\u00a0nejstar\u0161\u00edch a z\u00e1rove\u0148 nejkontroverzn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch metod anal\u00fdzy a predikce v\u00fdvoje na trz\u00edch, pro v\u011bt\u0161inu trader\u016f na forexu je v\u0161ak nenahraditeln\u00fdm n\u00e1strojem p\u0159i rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed o obchodech. V\u00a0dne\u0161n\u00edm \u010dl\u00e1nku si pop\u00ed\u0161eme jej\u00ed z\u00e1klady a modern\u00ed historii. 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