{"id":415167,"date":"2021-09-03T07:26:50","date_gmt":"2021-09-03T05:26:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/?p=415167"},"modified":"2023-07-17T12:50:35","modified_gmt":"2023-07-17T10:50:35","slug":"jak-likvidita-na-trhu-ovlivnuje-volatilitu-na-trzich","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/cs\/jak-likvidita-na-trhu-ovlivnuje-volatilitu-na-trzich\/","title":{"rendered":"Jak likvidita na trhu ovliv\u0148uje volatilitu na trz\u00edch?"},"content":{"rendered":"

P\u0159i denn\u00edm objemu p\u0159es 6,5 bilionu dolar\u016f by snad na forexu s likviditou probl\u00e9m b\u00fdt nem\u011bl. Ani tento obrovsk\u00fd objem v\u0161ak nemus\u00ed znamenat, \u017ee na v\u0161ech trz\u00edch bude za v\u0161ech podm\u00ednek dostate\u010dn\u00e1 popt\u00e1vka a nab\u00eddka.<\/em><\/p>\n

Forex je pom\u011brn\u011b \u0161irok\u00fd pojem, tak\u017ee kdy\u017e se \u0159ekne likvidn\u00ed trh, m\u016f\u017ee to b\u00fdt v n\u011bkter\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpadech zav\u00e1d\u011bj\u00edc\u00ed. Pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fd denn\u00ed obrat na forexu je v\u00edce ne\u017e 6,5 bilion\u016f dolar\u016f (na americk\u00fdch akciov\u00fdch trz\u00edch to je pro srovn\u00e1n\u00ed asi 280 miliard dolar\u016f), v roce 2019 p\u0159ekro\u010dil celkov\u00fd objem obchod\u016f sumu 2,4 biliardy dolar\u016f.<\/p>\n

Drtiv\u00e1 v\u011bt\u0161ina prost\u0159edk\u016f se v\u0161ak proto\u010d\u00ed na nejlikvidn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch m\u011bnov\u00fdch p\u00e1rech, tzv. majors. Samotn\u00fd p\u00e1r EURUSD p\u0159edstavuje v\u00edce ne\u017e \u010dtvrtinu v\u0161ech realizovan\u00fdch obchod\u016f co do objemu, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e spole\u010dn\u011b s\u00a0p\u00e1ry USDJPY (17 %) a GBPUSD (10 %) p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed v\u00edce ne\u017e polovinu zobchodovan\u00e9ho objemu na m\u011bnov\u00e9m trhu. Z\u00a0jednotliv\u00fdch m\u011bn je jednozna\u010dn\u011b nejobl\u00edben\u011bj\u0161\u00ed americk\u00fd dolar, kter\u00fd se objevuje ve v\u00edce ne\u017e 85 % v\u0161ech obchod\u016f na forexu, celkov\u011b se na forexu obchoduje se 170 m\u011bnami.<\/p>\n

Zde je pot\u0159eba si ujasnit, \u017ee podobn\u00e1 data nejsp\u00ed\u0161 nikdy nebudou p\u0159esn\u00e1, proto\u017ee forex je OTC market a nen\u00ed zast\u0159e\u0161en jednou burzou. Zjistit likviditu jednotliv\u00fdch trh\u016f lze jedin\u011b prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm anal\u00fdzy \u00fadaj\u016f z obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed m\u011bnov\u00fdch futures na komoditn\u00edch burz\u00e1ch, stejn\u00e9 je to u objem\u016f.<\/p>\n

Likvidn\u00ed vs. nelikvidn\u00ed trhy<\/h2>\n

Co tedy ovliv\u0148uje likviditu na trz\u00edch a pro\u010d se n\u011bkter\u00e9 trhy h\u00fdbou v\u00edce a n\u011bkter\u00e9 jsou zase pomalej\u0161\u00ed? Jak ji\u017e bylo zm\u00edn\u011bno, v\u011bt\u0161ina obchod\u016f na forexu se realizuje na t\u0159ech hlavn\u00edch p\u00e1rech. Mezi dal\u0161\u00ed tzv. majors pak je\u0161t\u011b pat\u0159\u00ed p\u00e1ry AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD nebo USDCHF, mezi likvidn\u00ed trhy m\u016f\u017eeme za\u0159adit tak\u00e9 v\u011bt\u0161inu kombinovan\u00fdch m\u011bnov\u00fdch p\u00e1r\u016f (crosses, nebo tak\u00e9 minors, tzn. neobsahuj\u00ed USD), jako jsou EURJPY, EURCHF, AUDJPY, GBPJPY apod. Na t\u011bchto trz\u00edch se zobchoduj\u00ed nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed objemy obchod\u016f a je na nich po v\u011bt\u0161inu dne dostupn\u00e1 nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed likvidita, tzn. nejv\u00edce \u010dekaj\u00edc\u00edch pokyn\u016f, kter\u00e9 vytv\u00e1\u0159ej\u00ed protistranu trader\u016fm na stran\u011b nab\u00eddky i popt\u00e1vky.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Na rz\u00edch s vysokou likviditou m\u00e1 trader v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost, \u017ee realizuje obchod s men\u0161\u00edm nebo \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fdm skluzem, proto\u017ee na trhu je dostatek \u00fa\u010dastn\u00edk\u016f a na ka\u017ed\u00e9 cenov\u00e9 hladin\u011b je mo\u017en\u00e9 naj\u00edt dostatek obchodn\u00edk\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed v obchod\u011b tvo\u0159\u00ed protistranu. D\u00edky tomu jsou na t\u011bchto trz\u00edch velmi mal\u00e9 spready, nedoch\u00e1z\u00ed zde \u010dasto k v\u00fdrazn\u00fdm pohyb\u016fm a vyzna\u010duj\u00ed se tak ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed volatilitou.<\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e je na trhu dostatek \u010dekaj\u00edc\u00edch pokyn\u016f, z\u00e1jem ze strany trader\u016f je v\u011bt\u0161inou realizov\u00e1n a cena nem\u00e1 d\u016fvod se rychle h\u00fdbat jedn\u00edm nebo druh\u00fdm sm\u011brem. K v\u011bt\u0161\u00edm pohyb\u016fm pak doch\u00e1z\u00ed, kdy\u017e na ur\u010dit\u00fdch cenov\u00fdch hladin\u00e1ch jsou obchodn\u00edci v jednom sm\u011bru agresivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. Zad\u00e1vaj\u00ed v\u00edce pokyn\u016f a trade\u0159i v opa\u010dn\u00e9m sm\u011bru nemaj\u00ed z\u00e1jem j\u00edt proti nim, \u010d\u00edm\u017e vznikaj\u00ed trendy.<\/p>\n

K\u00a0m\u00e9n\u011b likvidn\u00edm trh\u016fm pat\u0159\u00ed exotick\u00e9 p\u00e1ry, kde jsou zastoupeny m\u011bny rozv\u00edjej\u00edc\u00edch se zem\u00ed (v\u010detn\u011b CZK). Trader na t\u011bchto trz\u00edch jednodu\u0161e nem\u00e1 dostate\u010dn\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed protiobjedn\u00e1vek a obchod se na jeho po\u017eadovan\u00e9 cen\u011b nemus\u00ed realizovat. \u010c\u00edm v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed obchody otev\u00edr\u00e1, t\u00edm je pak riziko skluzu vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed a na t\u011bchto trz\u00edch je pot\u0159eba po\u010d\u00edtat s vy\u0161\u0161\u00edmi spready. Na t\u011bchto trz\u00edch doch\u00e1z\u00ed k v\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm pohyb\u016fm mnohem rychleji a jsou mnohem volatiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Rollovery a makrodata<\/h2>\n

I na likvidn\u00edch a major trz\u00edch m\u016f\u017ee doch\u00e1zet k situac\u00edm, kdy je likvidita ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed a trade\u0159i se mus\u00ed p\u0159ipravit na v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed volatilitu. V\u011bt\u0161inou k tomu doch\u00e1z\u00ed v pr\u016fb\u011bhu rolloveru na trz\u00edch, kdy je v\u011bt\u0161ina instituc\u00ed zav\u0159ena a doch\u00e1z\u00ed tak k roz\u0161i\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed spread\u016f a ke skluz\u016fm. Forex je sice trh, kter\u00fd funguje 24 hodin denn\u011b, ale to neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee v USA nebo v Lond\u00fdn\u011b jsou velk\u00e9 finan\u010dn\u00ed domy otev\u0159eny non-stop.<\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00edm p\u0159\u00edpadem, kdy se likvidita na trz\u00edch v\u010detn\u011b majors na ur\u010ditou dobu sni\u017euje, je publikov\u00e1n\u00ed makroekonomick\u00fdch zpr\u00e1v. Pokud jde o n\u011bjakou d\u016fle\u017eitou zpr\u00e1vu, obchodn\u00edci mohou sv\u00e9 \u010dekaj\u00edc\u00ed pokyny z\u00a0trhu st\u00e1hnout kv\u016fli nejist\u00e9mu v\u00fdsledku a obav\u00e1m z\u00a0reakce trhu. Po vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed zpr\u00e1vy pak trh zaplav\u00ed nov\u00e9 pokyny, \u010dasto zadan\u00e9 automatick\u00fdmi algoritmick\u00fdmi programy, \u010d\u00edm\u017e dojde ke zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed volatility. Ta v\u0161ak m\u016f\u017ee trvat jen n\u011bkolik sekund, nebo minut.<\/p>\n

Pozor na \u0161v\u00fdcarsk\u00fd frank<\/h2>\n

Zaj\u00edmav\u00fdm p\u0159\u00edkladem extr\u00e9mn\u00ed volatility vyvolan\u00e9 ne\u010dekanou zpr\u00e1vou m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt p\u00e1r EURCHF. Na tomto p\u00e1ru v polovin\u011b ledna 2015 na n\u011bkolik minut prakticky vyschla likvidita, co\u017e se nikdy p\u0159edt\u00edm v modern\u00edch d\u011bjin\u00e1ch forexu nestalo. Do\u0161lo k tomu kv\u016fli nestandardn\u011b odkomunikovan\u00e9mu ukon\u010den\u00ed intervenc\u00ed ze strany \u0160v\u00fdcarsk\u00e9 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed banky. To vedlo k extr\u00e9mn\u00edmu pohybu, jen\u017e m\u011bl za n\u00e1sledek mnoho vynulovan\u00fdch \u00fa\u010dt\u016f obchodn\u00edk\u016f ve \u0161patn\u00e9 pozici, a dokonce i bankroty brokersk\u00fdch firem. K norm\u00e1lu se situace vr\u00e1tila a\u017e po n\u011bkolika dnech.<\/p>\n

A na \u0161v\u00fdcarsk\u00fd frank by si m\u011bli d\u00e1t investo\u0159i pozor i na konci l\u00e9ta 2021. V\u016f\u010di euru posiluje CHF prakticky od dubna 2018, v srpnu ale zaznamenal dv\u011b pom\u011brn\u011b v\u00fdrazn\u00e1 oslaben\u00ed a analytici spekuluj\u00ed, \u017ee to m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt vlivem krok\u016f SNB. Tak\u00e9 broke\u0159i a poskytovatel\u00e9 likvidity na to zareagovali zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00edm po\u017eadavk\u016f na mar\u017ei, resp. sn\u00ed\u017een\u00edm p\u00e1ky u m\u011bnov\u00fdch p\u00e1ru USDCHF a EURCHF.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Samostatnou kapitolou jsou dnes kryptom\u011bny. Mezi ur\u010ditou skupinou trader\u016f jsou sice hodn\u011b popul\u00e1rn\u00ed, u velk\u00fdch institucion\u00e1ln\u00edch investor\u016f jsou v\u0161ak sp\u00ed\u0161e na okraji z\u00e1jmu. Hodnota trhu s\u00a0kryptom\u011bnami se pohybuje kolem 200 miliard dolar\u016f. Trade\u0159i na forexu dnes maj\u00ed k\u00a0dispozici n\u011bkolik nejzn\u00e1m\u011bj\u0161\u00edch kryptom\u011bn, ale jejich volatilita je vzhledem k\u00a0n\u00edzk\u00e9mu objemu a likvidit\u011b na trz\u00edch vysok\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Ohromn\u00e1 likvidita na forexu (resp. na vybran\u00fdch p\u00e1rech) vede k tomu, \u017ee jde o trhy mnohem m\u00e9n\u011b volatiln\u00ed, ne\u017e jsou nap\u0159\u00edklad akcie. Za to, \u017ee jsou obchodn\u00edci na forexu schopni vyd\u011bl\u00e1vat i na t\u011bchto relativn\u011b mal\u00fdch pohybech, m\u016f\u017ee p\u00e1ka, kter\u00e1 tyto pohyby v\u00fdrazn\u011b zn\u00e1sobuje. I s relativn\u011b mal\u00fdm mno\u017estv\u00edm pen\u011bz tak mohou trade\u0159i realizovat pom\u011brn\u011b velk\u00e9 obchody. Bez p\u00e1ky trader pot\u0159ebuje na realizaci obchodu o velikosti jednoho lotu na m\u011bnov\u00e9m p\u00e1ru EURUSD 100 000 EUR, p\u0159i p\u00e1ce 1:100 mu v\u0161ak sta\u010d\u00ed mar\u017ee 1 000 EUR. D\u00edky firm\u011b FTMO v\u0161ak trade\u0159i nepot\u0159ebuj\u00ed ani t\u011bch zmi\u0148ovan\u00fdch 1 000 EUR z vlastn\u00ed kapsy. Po spln\u011bn\u00ed podm\u00ednek FTMO Challenge a Verifikace m\u016f\u017ee trader vyu\u017e\u00edvat velikost \u00fa\u010dtu a\u017e do v\u00fd\u0161e 8 000 000 korun, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e z vlastn\u00ed kapsy zaplat\u00ed jen zanedbatelnou sumu.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

P\u0159i denn\u00edm objemu p\u0159es 6,5 bilionu dolar\u016f by snad na forexu s likviditou probl\u00e9m b\u00fdt nem\u011bl. Ani tento obrovsk\u00fd objem v\u0161ak nemus\u00ed znamenat, \u017ee na v\u0161ech trz\u00edch bude za v\u0161ech podm\u00ednek dostate\u010dn\u00e1 popt\u00e1vka a nab\u00eddka. Forex je pom\u011brn\u011b \u0161irok\u00fd pojem, tak\u017ee kdy\u017e se \u0159ekne likvidn\u00ed trh, m\u016f\u017ee to b\u00fdt v n\u011bkter\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpadech zav\u00e1d\u011bj\u00edc\u00ed. Pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fd denn\u00ed […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":44,"featured_media":415419,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[88909],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-415167","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-rady-a-tipy"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nJak likvidita na trhu ovliv\u0148uje volatilitu na trz\u00edch? | FTMO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Ani denn\u00ed objem p\u0159es 6,5 bilionu dolar\u016f na forexu nemus\u00ed znamenat, \u017ee na v\u0161ech trz\u00edch bude za v\u0161ech podm\u00ednek dostate\u010dn\u00e1 likvidita.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/cs\/jak-likvidita-na-trhu-ovlivnuje-volatilitu-na-trzich\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"cs_CZ\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Jak likvidita na trhu ovliv\u0148uje volatilitu na trz\u00edch?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Ani denn\u00ed objem p\u0159es 6,5 bilionu dolar\u016f na forexu nemus\u00ed znamenat, \u017ee na v\u0161ech trz\u00edch bude za v\u0161ech podm\u00ednek dostate\u010dn\u00e1 likvidita.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/cs\/jak-likvidita-na-trhu-ovlivnuje-volatilitu-na-trzich\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"FTMO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/ftmocom\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2021-09-03T05:26:50+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-07-17T10:50:35+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/likviditacz.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2400\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1256\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/cs\/jak-likvidita-na-trhu-ovlivnuje-volatilitu-na-trzich\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/cs\/jak-likvidita-na-trhu-ovlivnuje-volatilitu-na-trzich\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Daniel Kuchta\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/es\/#\/schema\/person\/e19858442faa4d101a51094cfe2317bf\"},\"headline\":\"Jak likvidita na trhu ovliv\u0148uje volatilitu na trz\u00edch?\",\"datePublished\":\"2021-09-03T05:26:50+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-07-17T10:50:35+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/cs\/jak-likvidita-na-trhu-ovlivnuje-volatilitu-na-trzich\/\"},\"wordCount\":1300,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/es\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/cs\/jak-likvidita-na-trhu-ovlivnuje-volatilitu-na-trzich\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/likviditacz.jpg\",\"articleSection\":[\"Rady a tipy\"],\"inLanguage\":\"cs\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/cs\/jak-likvidita-na-trhu-ovlivnuje-volatilitu-na-trzich\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/cs\/jak-likvidita-na-trhu-ovlivnuje-volatilitu-na-trzich\/\",\"name\":\"Jak likvidita na trhu ovliv\u0148uje volatilitu na trz\u00edch? 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