{"id":408575,"date":"2021-02-21T13:47:47","date_gmt":"2021-02-21T12:47:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/?p=408575"},"modified":"2025-09-25T11:19:00","modified_gmt":"2025-09-25T09:19:00","slug":"navod-na-zpetne-testovani-jak-zacit-duverovat-sve-strategii-pomoci-backtestingu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/cs\/navod-na-zpetne-testovani-jak-zacit-duverovat-sve-strategii-pomoci-backtestingu\/","title":{"rendered":"N\u00e1vod na zp\u011btn\u00e9 testov\u00e1n\u00ed – Jak za\u010d\u00edt d\u016fv\u011b\u0159ovat sv\u00e9 strategii pomoc\u00ed backtestingu?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Metod, kter\u00e9 lze vyu\u017e\u00edt k vyd\u011bl\u00e1n\u00ed pen\u011bz na forexu je nespo\u010det. Jak si ale m\u016f\u017eete b\u00fdt jisti, \u017ee va\u0161e strategie bude fungovat v dlouhodob\u00e9m horizontu? To nem\u016f\u017eete nikdy stoprocentn\u011b v\u011bd\u011bt, proto\u017ee se trhy neust\u00e1le m\u011bn\u00ed a d\u011bj\u00ed se na nich extr\u00e9mn\u00ed a nep\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00e9 v\u011bci. Ta dobr\u00e1 zpr\u00e1va je, \u017ee d\u00edky zp\u011btn\u00e9mu testov\u00e1n\u00ed se \u00fasp\u011b\u0161nost dlouhodob\u00e9 strategie dramaticky zvy\u0161uje. V tomto \u010dl\u00e1nku se pod\u00edv\u00e1me na to, co je zp\u011btn\u00e9 testov\u00e1n\u00ed (tzv. backtesting) a jak ho m\u016f\u017eete co nejl\u00e9pe vyu\u017e\u00edt, abyste z\u00edskali d\u016fv\u011bru ve svou obchodn\u00ed strategii.<\/em><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1kladem je d\u016fv\u011bra ve strategii<\/h2>\n

Existuje jedna v\u011bc, kter\u00e1 spojuje v\u0161echny \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9 obchodn\u00edky nap\u0159\u00ed\u010d cel\u00fdm sv\u011btem. V\u0161ichni maj\u00ed stoprocentn\u00ed d\u016fv\u011bru ve svou obchodn\u00ed strategii. Pokud se chcete p\u0159idat do elitn\u00edho klubu, mus\u00edte v\u011bd\u011bt, co m\u016f\u017eete od sv\u00e9 strategie o\u010dek\u00e1vat. Co lze o\u010dek\u00e1vat, je velmi t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 posoudit. Co ale lze posoudit je to, jestli by strategie fungovala na historick\u00fdch datech, tzn. jak bychom si vedli v minulosti. Pokud zjist\u00edme, \u017ee na\u0161e strategie funguje v posledn\u00edch n\u011bkolika letech, \u0161ance \u017ee nebude fungovat v budoucnosti se rapidn\u011b sni\u017euje. Ur\u010dit\u011b nelze historick\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky br\u00e1t jako z\u00e1ruku v\u00fdsledk\u016f budouc\u00edch, ale jde p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm o vybudov\u00e1n\u00ed d\u016fv\u011bry.<\/p>\n

Co je to zp\u011btn\u00e9 testov\u00e1n\u00ed?<\/h2>\n

Zp\u011btn\u00fdm testov\u00e1n\u00edm zkou\u0161\u00edme na\u0161i strategii na historick\u00fdch datech. Toho lze dos\u00e1hnout pohledem na posledn\u00edch p\u00e1r m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f nebo se klidn\u011b vr\u00e1tit o n\u011bkolik let zp\u011bt. V\u0161e z\u00e1le\u017e\u00ed na v\u00e1s a na tom, jak d\u016fkladn\u00fd v\u00e1\u0161 backtest bude. I kdy\u017e to m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt \u010dasov\u011b n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u00e9, tak ve v\u00fdsledku je backtest velice snadn\u00fd. V\u0161e, co k tomu budete pot\u0159ebovat, je obchodn\u00ed platforma s dostatkem historick\u00fdch dat a jednoduch\u00fd excel soubor, kde budete dokumentovat v\u0161echny obchody.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

2 zp\u016fsoby zp\u011btn\u00e9ho testov\u00e1n\u00ed<\/h2>\n

Existuj\u00ed 2 zp\u016fsoby zp\u011btn\u00e9ho testov\u00e1n\u00ed: manu\u00e1ln\u00ed a automatick\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Manu\u00e1ln\u00ed testov\u00e1n\u00ed<\/h3>\n

Manu\u00e1ln\u00ed zp\u011btn\u00e9 testov\u00e1n\u00ed je \u010dasov\u011b nejn\u00e1ro\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, ale na druhou stranu nejjednodu\u0161\u0161\u00ed. Otev\u0159ete si obchodn\u00ed platformu a hledejte m\u00edsta na grafu, kde by trh splnil obchodn\u00ed nastaven\u00ed a kde byste v re\u00e1ln\u00e9m \u010dase otev\u00edrali a zav\u00edrali pozice. V\u0161echna tato m\u00edsta si zap\u00ed\u0161ete od Excelu. To nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed v t\u00e9to metod\u011b je, \u017ee mus\u00edte b\u00fdt sami k sob\u011b co nejv\u00edce up\u0159\u00edmn\u00ed a spravedliv\u00ed. Pokud budete podv\u00e1d\u011bt, podv\u00e1d\u00edte jen sami sebe a v budoucnu se v\u00e1m to vr\u00e1t\u00ed p\u0159\u00ed obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed s re\u00e1ln\u00fdmi prost\u0159edky, a ur\u010dit\u011b se to uk\u00e1\u017ee na d\u016fv\u011b\u0159e v obchodn\u00ed strategii.<\/p>\n

Tou nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed chybou, kterou m\u016f\u017eete ud\u011blat, je p\u0159izp\u016fsobov\u00e1n\u00ed si strategie b\u011bhem testov\u00e1n\u00ed tak, aby to p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161elo lep\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdsledky. P\u0159\u00edkladem m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt situace, kdy se sign\u00e1l k obchodu objev\u00ed uprost\u0159ed noci, tak\u017ee byste nebyli schopni takov\u00fd obchod uskute\u010dnit. Dal\u0161\u00ed situace m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt Stop Loss zasa\u017een\u00fd rozta\u017een\u00fdm spreadem, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e vy budete obchod po\u010d\u00edtat mezi ziskov\u00e9. Uv\u011bdomte si, \u017ee t\u00edm \u0161kod\u00edte hlavn\u011b sami sob\u011b.<\/p>\n

Automatick\u00e9 testov\u00e1n\u00ed<\/h3>\n

Druh\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem pro zp\u011btn\u00e9 testov\u00e1n\u00ed je pln\u011b automatick\u00e9 testov\u00e1n\u00ed. Pro tento zp\u016fsob pot\u0159ebujete znalost alespo\u0148 jednoho programovac\u00edho jazyka, nap\u0159\u00edklad Python, MQL nebo C++. tou nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdhodou t\u00e9to metody je, \u017ee absolutn\u011b odstra\u0148uje v\u0161echny emoce a rapidn\u011b sni\u017euje \u010das, kter\u00fd pot\u0159ebujete v\u011bnovat ka\u017edodenn\u00edmu proch\u00e1zen\u00ed historick\u00fdch dat. Nev\u00fdhodou v\u0161ak je, \u017ee se mus\u00edte nau\u010dit programovat. V dne\u0161n\u00ed dob\u011b to a\u017e takov\u00e1 nev\u00fdhoda b\u00fdt nemus\u00ed a je jen ot\u00e1zka, jestli \u010das, kter\u00fd v\u00e1m zabere v\u00fduka programov\u00e1n\u00ed, chcete po\u010d\u00edtat jako \u010das p\u0159\u00edmo v\u011bnovan\u00fd tradingu nebo v\u0161eobecn\u00e9mu vzd\u011bl\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

D\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 statistiky p\u0159i backtestingu<\/h2>\n

Pokud se pust\u00edte do zp\u011btn\u00e9ho testov\u00e1n\u00ed, m\u011bli byste ur\u010dit\u011b sledovat tyto statistiky:<\/p>\n

\u2022 \u010cas a datum vstupu
\n\u2022 Vstupn\u00ed a v\u00fdstupn\u00ed cena
\n\u2022 Velikost pozice a procentu\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00fd\u0161e rizika na \u00fa\u010dtu
\n\u2022 MAE \u2013 Maximal Adverse Excursion (nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed otev\u0159en\u00e1 ztr\u00e1ta b\u011bhem otev\u0159en\u00e9ho obchodu)
\n\u2022 MFE \u2013 Maximal Favorable Excursion (nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed otev\u0159en\u00fd zisk b\u011bhem otev\u0159en\u00e9ho obchodu)
\n\u2022 Average Reward to Risk Ratio (pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fd pom\u011br mezi ziskem a riskem)
\n\u2022 % \u00fasp\u011b\u0161nost obchod\u016f (pom\u011br ziskov\u00fdch a ztr\u00e1tov\u00fdch obchod\u016f)
\n\u2022 Maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed ztr\u00e1ta
\n\u2022 Long\/Short ratio (pom\u011br otev\u0159en\u00fdch buy a sell obchod\u016f)
\n\u2022 M\u00edra \u00fasp\u011b\u0161nosti na r\u016fzn\u00fdch finan\u010dn\u00edch instrumentech<\/p>\n

M\u011bli byste tak\u00e9 p\u0159idat sn\u00edmky obrazovky ke v\u0161em obchod\u016fm, kter\u00e9 jste realizovali.<\/p>\n

Kolik obchod\u016f by m\u011blo b\u00fdt zp\u011btn\u011b testov\u00e1no?<\/h2>\n

N\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed obchodn\u00edci si zp\u011btn\u011b otestuj\u00ed 10 obchod\u016f a rozhodnou se, \u017ee to sta\u010d\u00ed. To v\u0161ak nen\u00ed ten nejlep\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstup. Za slu\u0161n\u00fd vzorek lze pova\u017eovat alespo\u0148 100 – 200 obchod\u016f. Samoz\u0159ejm\u011b bude z\u00e1le\u017eet na strategii, kterou testujete. Pokud to bude 50 obchod\u016f b\u011bhem jednoho dne, ur\u010dit\u011b bude pot\u0159eba vzorek obchod\u016f zna\u010dn\u011b nav\u00fd\u0161it. T\u00edmto zp\u016fsobem z\u00edsk\u00e1te mnohem v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed d\u016fv\u011bru ve va\u0161\u00ed obchodn\u00ed strategii.<\/p>\n

P\u0159esto\u017ee se backtestov\u00e1n\u00ed li\u0161\u00ed od re\u00e1ln\u00e9ho obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed z\u00edsk\u00e1te d\u00edky n\u011bmu mnohem v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed d\u016fv\u011bru a zjist\u00edte, \u017ee v dlouhodob\u00e9m horizontu m\u00e1 va\u0161e strategie pozitivn\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed. Nemus\u00ed v\u00e1s pak tolik p\u0159ekvapit jeden nepoveden\u00fd m\u011bs\u00edc, jeliko\u017e budete v\u011bd\u011bt, \u017ee dal\u0161\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edce u\u017e by m\u011bly b\u00fdt v po\u0159\u00e1dku. Hlavn\u011b nezapom\u00ednejte, \u017ee i ztr\u00e1ty k obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed jednodu\u0161e pat\u0159\u00ed a jde o v\u00fdsledek v dlouhodob\u00e9m horizontu, nikoliv jestli m\u00e1te dobr\u00fd nebo \u0161patn\u00fd t\u00fdden.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Metod, kter\u00e9 lze vyu\u017e\u00edt k vyd\u011bl\u00e1n\u00ed pen\u011bz na forexu je nespo\u010det. Jak si ale m\u016f\u017eete b\u00fdt jisti, \u017ee va\u0161e strategie bude fungovat v dlouhodob\u00e9m horizontu? To nem\u016f\u017eete nikdy stoprocentn\u011b v\u011bd\u011bt, proto\u017ee se trhy neust\u00e1le m\u011bn\u00ed a d\u011bj\u00ed se na nich extr\u00e9mn\u00ed a nep\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00e9 v\u011bci. Ta dobr\u00e1 zpr\u00e1va je, \u017ee d\u00edky zp\u011btn\u00e9mu testov\u00e1n\u00ed se \u00fasp\u011b\u0161nost dlouhodob\u00e9 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":44,"featured_media":408576,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[88909],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-408575","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-rady-a-tipy"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nN\u00e1vod na zp\u011btn\u00e9 testov\u00e1n\u00ed - Jak za\u010d\u00edt d\u016fv\u011b\u0159ovat sv\u00e9 strategii pomoc\u00ed backtestingu? | FTMO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/en\/forex-backtesting\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"cs_CZ\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"N\u00e1vod na zp\u011btn\u00e9 testov\u00e1n\u00ed - Jak za\u010d\u00edt d\u016fv\u011b\u0159ovat sv\u00e9 strategii pomoc\u00ed backtestingu?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Metod, kter\u00e9 lze vyu\u017e\u00edt k vyd\u011bl\u00e1n\u00ed pen\u011bz na forexu je nespo\u010det. Jak si ale m\u016f\u017eete b\u00fdt jisti, \u017ee va\u0161e strategie bude fungovat v dlouhodob\u00e9m horizontu? To nem\u016f\u017eete nikdy stoprocentn\u011b v\u011bd\u011bt, proto\u017ee se trhy neust\u00e1le m\u011bn\u00ed a d\u011bj\u00ed se na nich extr\u00e9mn\u00ed a nep\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00e9 v\u011bci. Ta dobr\u00e1 zpr\u00e1va je, \u017ee d\u00edky zp\u011btn\u00e9mu testov\u00e1n\u00ed se \u00fasp\u011b\u0161nost dlouhodob\u00e9 […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/en\/forex-backtesting\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"FTMO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/ftmocom\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2021-02-21T12:47:47+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-09-25T09:19:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/The-Forex-backtestingCZ.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2481\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1170\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/en\/forex-backtesting\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/en\/forex-backtesting\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Daniel Kuchta\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/e19858442faa4d101a51094cfe2317bf\"},\"headline\":\"N\u00e1vod na zp\u011btn\u00e9 testov\u00e1n\u00ed – Jak za\u010d\u00edt d\u016fv\u011b\u0159ovat sv\u00e9 strategii pomoc\u00ed backtestingu?\",\"datePublished\":\"2021-02-21T12:47:47+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-09-25T09:19:00+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/en\/forex-backtesting\/\"},\"wordCount\":1092,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/en\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/en\/forex-backtesting\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/The-Forex-backtestingCZ.png\",\"articleSection\":[\"Rady a tipy\"],\"inLanguage\":\"cs\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/en\/forex-backtesting\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/en\/forex-backtesting\/\",\"name\":\"N\u00e1vod na zp\u011btn\u00e9 testov\u00e1n\u00ed - Jak za\u010d\u00edt d\u016fv\u011b\u0159ovat sv\u00e9 strategii pomoc\u00ed backtestingu? 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