{"id":2237,"date":"2026-03-31T12:57:11","date_gmt":"2026-03-31T12:57:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/au\/?p=2237"},"modified":"2026-03-31T13:07:03","modified_gmt":"2026-03-31T13:07:03","slug":"trading-week-ahead-restricted-oil-flows-push-eu-inflation-to-2-5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/au\/blog\/trading-week-ahead-restricted-oil-flows-push-eu-inflation-to-2-5\/","title":{"rendered":"Trading Week Ahead: Restricted Oil Flows Push EU Inflation to 2.5%"},"content":{"rendered":"

With the Strait of Hormuz closed and Brent crude holding above $100, markets are pricing in prolonged reduced oil supplies<\/strong>. Surging oil has already pushed Eurozone inflation to 2.5%<\/strong>, trapping central banks in a severe stagflationary dilemma. Against this volatile backdrop, focus shifts entirely to the US, where critical updates on consumer spending<\/strong>, manufacturing<\/strong>, and the labour market<\/strong> will test the economy’s underlying resilience.<\/em><\/p>\n

\ud83d\udc49 <\/strong>US Retail Sales<\/b><\/p>\n

Consumer spending is forecast to rebound to 0.4% following a previous -0.2% contraction. A strong print reinforces economic resilience and supports the dollar, while another miss could accelerate dovish repricing and weigh heavily on the greenback.<\/span><\/p>\n

\ud83d\udc49 <\/strong>US ISM Manufacturing PMI<\/b><\/p>\n

As a leading growth metric, this index provides vital insight into the broader economy. Any significant weakness will likely spark a strong bid for duration in bond markets, whereas a robust reading could cap yields and support a risk-on shift in equities.<\/span><\/p>\n

\ud83d\udc49 <\/strong>US Nonfarm Payrolls<\/b><\/p>\n

The event of the week. Job creation is expected to recover to a modest 56,000 after a sharp contraction of -92,000 previously. A solid beat will push back against recession fears and lift yields, while another negative reading could trigger severe risk-off flows across all major asset classes.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n\n\n

\n \n
\n Tuesday, Mar. 31\n <\/div>\n \n
\n
\n Time<\/span>\n
\n \n \n \n<\/svg>\n\n 2:30 PM<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Instrument<\/span>\n
\n
\n \"CAD\"\n <\/div>\n CAD<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Event<\/span>\n GDP<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n \n
\n
\n Time<\/span>\n
\n \n \n \n<\/svg>\n\n 4:00 PM<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Instrument<\/span>\n
\n
\n \"USD\"\n <\/div>\n USD<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Event<\/span>\n JOLTS Job Openings<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n \n
\n
\n Time<\/span>\n
\n \n \n \n<\/svg>\n\n 4:00 PM<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Instrument<\/span>\n
\n
\n \"USD\"\n <\/div>\n USD<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Event<\/span>\n CB Consumer Confidence<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n
\n Wednesday, Apr. 1\n <\/div>\n \n
\n
\n Time<\/span>\n
\n \n \n \n<\/svg>\n\n 2:15 PM<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Instrument<\/span>\n
\n
\n \"USD\"\n <\/div>\n USD<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Event<\/span>\n ADP Non-Farm Employment Change<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n \n
\n
\n Time<\/span>\n
\n \n \n \n<\/svg>\n\n 2:30 PM<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Instrument<\/span>\n
\n
\n \"USD\"\n <\/div>\n USD<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Event<\/span>\n Retail Sales<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n \n
\n
\n Time<\/span>\n
\n \n \n \n<\/svg>\n\n 4:00 PM<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Instrument<\/span>\n
\n
\n \"USD\"\n <\/div>\n USD<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Event<\/span>\n ISM Manufacturing PMI<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n
\n Friday, Apr. 3\n <\/div>\n \n
\n
\n Time<\/span>\n
\n \n \n \n<\/svg>\n\n 2:30 PM<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Instrument<\/span>\n
\n
\n \"USD\"\n <\/div>\n USD<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Event<\/span>\n Average Hourly Earnings<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n \n
\n
\n Time<\/span>\n
\n \n \n \n<\/svg>\n\n 2:30 PM<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Instrument<\/span>\n
\n
\n \"USD\"\n <\/div>\n USD<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Event<\/span>\n Nonfarm Payrolls<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n \n
\n
\n Time<\/span>\n
\n \n \n \n<\/svg>\n\n 2:30 PM<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Instrument<\/span>\n
\n
\n \"USD\"\n <\/div>\n USD<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Event<\/span>\n Unemployment Rate<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n
Date<\/th>\n Time<\/th>\n Instrument<\/th>\n Event<\/th>\n <\/tr>\n <\/thead>\n
Tuesday, Mar. 31<\/td>\n \n \n
\n \n \n \n<\/svg>\n<\/span>\n 2:30 PM<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/td>\n \n
\n
\n
\n \"CAD\"\n <\/div>\n
CAD<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/td>\n\n
\n GDP<\/span>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n \n \n
\n
\n \n \n \n<\/svg>\n<\/span>\n 4:00 PM<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/td>\n \n
\n
\n
\n \"USD\"\n <\/div>\n
USD<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/td>\n\n
\n JOLTS Job Openings<\/span>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n \"USD\"\n <\/div>\n
USD<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/td>\n\n
\n CB Consumer Confidence<\/span>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n \n \n
Wednesday, Apr. 1<\/td>\n \n \n
\n \n \n \n<\/svg>\n<\/span>\n 2:15 PM<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/td>\n \n
\n
\n
\n \"USD\"\n <\/div>\n
USD<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/td>\n\n
\n ADP Non-Farm Employment Change<\/span>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n \n \n
\n
\n \n \n \n<\/svg>\n<\/span>\n 2:30 PM<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/td>\n \n
\n
\n
\n \"USD\"\n <\/div>\n
USD<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/td>\n\n
\n Retail Sales<\/span>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n \n \n
\n
\n \n \n \n<\/svg>\n<\/span>\n 4:00 PM<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/td>\n \n
\n
\n
\n \"USD\"\n <\/div>\n
USD<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/td>\n\n
\n ISM Manufacturing PMI<\/span>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n \n \n
Friday, Apr. 3<\/td>\n \n \n
\n \n \n \n<\/svg>\n<\/span>\n 2:30 PM<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/td>\n \n
\n
\n
\n \"USD\"\n <\/div>\n
USD<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/td>\n\n
\n Average Hourly Earnings<\/span>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n \"USD\"\n <\/div>\n
USD<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/td>\n\n
\n Nonfarm Payrolls<\/span>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n \"USD\"\n <\/div>\n
USD<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/td>\n\n
\n Unemployment Rate<\/span>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <\/tbody>\n <\/table>\n <\/div>\n