{"id":1267,"date":"2025-12-01T14:44:59","date_gmt":"2025-12-01T14:44:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/global.ftmo.com\/au\/blog\/trading-week-ahead-will-core-pce-and-jolts-data-tilt-the-feds-path\/"},"modified":"2026-02-18T08:48:04","modified_gmt":"2026-02-18T08:48:04","slug":"trading-week-ahead-will-core-pce-and-jolts-data-tilt-the-feds-path","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ftmo.com\/au\/blog\/trading-week-ahead-will-core-pce-and-jolts-data-tilt-the-feds-path\/","title":{"rendered":"Trading Week Ahead: Will Core PCE and JOLTS Data Tilt the Fed\u2019s Path?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Key US data releases this week, including inflation, factory activity and labour demand, could reshape market expectations around the Fed\u2019s next move.<\/em>
\nHere’s what traders need to know.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

\ud83d\udc49 Core PCE Price Index<\/strong>
\nThe Fed\u2019s go-to inflation metric will take centre stage at the end of the week. With inflation pressures still sticky, any upside surprise could delay the policy pivot, lifting the US dollar and Treasury yields. A softer-than-expected figure would support dovish sentiment and boost risk assets like tech and gold.<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udc49 ISM Manufacturing PMI & Prices<\/strong>
\nThe November PMI is projected to tick up from 48.7 to 49.0, still shy of the expansion threshold, while prices are expected to rise from 58.0 to 59.5. A stronger-than-expected report may signal lingering cost pressures, reinforcing rate-hike caution and fuelling USD strength. Weak data, on the other hand, could weigh on yields and favour growth stocks.<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udc49 JOLTS Job Openings<\/strong>
\nThe last job openings stood at 7.227 million. Any significant drop in this figure could highlight softening labour demand, increasing market bets on earlier Fed rate cuts in 2026. A stable or rising number may reinforce the higher-for-longer narrative, strengthening the greenback.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n \n
\n Monday, Dec. 1\n <\/div>\n \n
\n
\n Time<\/span>\n
\n \n \n \n<\/svg>\n\n 4:00 PM<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Instrument<\/span>\n
\n
\n \"USD\"\n <\/div>\n USD<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Event<\/span>\n ISM Manufacturing PMI, Prices<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n
\n Tuesday, Dec. 2\n <\/div>\n \n
\n
\n Time<\/span>\n
\n \n \n \n<\/svg>\n\n 2:00 AM<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Instrument<\/span>\n
\n
\n \"USD\"\n <\/div>\n USD<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Event<\/span>\n Fed Chair Powell Speaks<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n \n
\n
\n Time<\/span>\n
\n \n \n \n<\/svg>\n\n 11:00 AM<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Instrument<\/span>\n
\n
\n \"EUR\"\n <\/div>\n EUR<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Event<\/span>\n CPI<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n \n
\n
\n Time<\/span>\n
\n \n \n \n<\/svg>\n\n 4:00 PM<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Instrument<\/span>\n
\n
\n \"USD\"\n <\/div>\n USD<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Event<\/span>\n JOLTS Job Openings<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n
\n Wednesday, Dec. 3\n <\/div>\n \n
\n
\n Time<\/span>\n
\n \n \n \n<\/svg>\n\n 2:15 PM<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Instrument<\/span>\n
\n
\n \"USD\"\n <\/div>\n USD<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Event<\/span>\n ADP Non-Farm Employment Change<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n \n
\n
\n Time<\/span>\n
\n \n \n \n<\/svg>\n\n 4:00 PM<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Instrument<\/span>\n
\n
\n \"USD\"\n <\/div>\n USD<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Event<\/span>\n ISM Services PMI<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n
\n Friday, Dec. 5\n <\/div>\n \n
\n
\n Time<\/span>\n
\n \n \n \n<\/svg>\n\n 11:00 AM<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Instrument<\/span>\n
\n
\n \"EUR\"\n <\/div>\n EUR<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Event<\/span>\n GDP<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n \n
\n
\n Time<\/span>\n
\n \n \n \n<\/svg>\n\n 2:30 PM<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Instrument<\/span>\n
\n
\n \"CAD\"\n <\/div>\n CAD<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Event<\/span>\n Employment Change<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n \n
\n
\n Time<\/span>\n
\n \n \n \n<\/svg>\n\n 4:00 PM<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Instrument<\/span>\n
\n
\n \"USD\"\n <\/div>\n USD<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Event<\/span>\n Core PCE Price Index<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n \n
\n
\n Time<\/span>\n
\n \n \n \n<\/svg>\n\n 4:00 PM<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Instrument<\/span>\n
\n
\n \"USD\"\n <\/div>\n USD<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Event<\/span>\n Prelim UoM Consumer, Inflation Expectations<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n
Date<\/th>\n Time<\/th>\n Instrument<\/th>\n Event<\/th>\n <\/tr>\n <\/thead>\n
Monday, Dec. 1<\/td>\n \n \n
\n \n \n \n<\/svg>\n<\/span>\n 4:00 PM<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/td>\n \n
\n
\n
\n \"USD\"\n <\/div>\n
USD<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/td>\n\n
\n ISM Manufacturing PMI, Prices<\/span>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n \n \n
Tuesday, Dec. 2<\/td>\n \n \n
\n \n \n \n<\/svg>\n<\/span>\n 2:00 AM<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/td>\n \n
\n
\n
\n \"USD\"\n <\/div>\n
USD<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/td>\n\n
\n Fed Chair Powell Speaks<\/span>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n \n \n
\n
\n \n \n \n<\/svg>\n<\/span>\n 11:00 AM<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/td>\n \n
\n
\n
\n \"EUR\"\n <\/div>\n
EUR<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/td>\n\n
\n CPI<\/span>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n \n \n
\n
\n \n \n \n<\/svg>\n<\/span>\n 4:00 PM<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/td>\n \n
\n
\n
\n \"USD\"\n <\/div>\n
USD<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/td>\n\n
\n JOLTS Job Openings<\/span>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n \n \n
Wednesday, Dec. 3<\/td>\n \n \n
\n \n \n \n<\/svg>\n<\/span>\n 2:15 PM<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/td>\n \n
\n
\n
\n \"USD\"\n <\/div>\n
USD<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/td>\n\n
\n ADP Non-Farm Employment Change<\/span>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n \n \n
\n
\n \n \n \n<\/svg>\n<\/span>\n 4:00 PM<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/td>\n \n
\n
\n
\n \"USD\"\n <\/div>\n
USD<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/td>\n\n
\n ISM Services PMI<\/span>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n \n \n
Friday, Dec. 5<\/td>\n \n \n
\n \n \n \n<\/svg>\n<\/span>\n 11:00 AM<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/td>\n \n
\n
\n
\n \"EUR\"\n <\/div>\n
EUR<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/td>\n\n
\n GDP<\/span>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n \n \n
\n
\n \n \n \n<\/svg>\n<\/span>\n 2:30 PM<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/td>\n \n
\n
\n
\n \"CAD\"\n <\/div>\n
CAD<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/td>\n\n
\n Employment Change<\/span>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n \n \n
\n
\n \n \n \n<\/svg>\n<\/span>\n 4:00 PM<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/td>\n \n
\n
\n
\n \"USD\"\n <\/div>\n
USD<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/td>\n\n
\n Core PCE Price Index<\/span>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n \n \n
\n
\n
\n \"USD\"\n <\/div>\n
USD<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/td>\n\n
\n Prelim UoM Consumer, Inflation Expectations<\/span>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <\/tbody>\n <\/table>\n <\/div>\n